+ Watch ICPT
on My Watchlist
Typically overpriced newly-public stock which has low ratings here, at http://www.zacks.com and at StockScouter. Much insider open market selling, NO open market buying by ranking insiders this calendar year.
I picked underperformed because the Intercept Molecule had some negative impact on cholesterol and it seems they didn't fix that problem yet. The FDA will probably want to look deeper into that. Furthermore another company that has a very good molecule is its French competitor: Genfit. It has a molecule that has impressive results so far and a great potential in other fields (so will be able to get multiple revenue stream in the future). The GFT505 (the molecule Genfit is working on) recently got a fast track status from the FDA. I'd be careful of Intercept.
A highly likely buyout target.
Last year I red thumbed Intercept at around 37 based on the too much, too soon concept that the share price had gotten ahead of prospects. That hasn't been a very good strategy for me. I should probably confine myself to red thumbing spikes on BS press releases from companies I know are going to fail eventually. In this case I'm getting behind Intercept not because I buy this whole NASH hysteria, but because OCA is being developed for numerous hepatic indications besides NASH and data will be reported for several of those indications in coming months. Data from the POISE trial in primary biliary sclerosis will be reported next quarter. Encouraging preliminary data from PESTO (portal hypertension) and OBADIAH (bile acid diarrhea) has already been released and more complete data sets will be presented at conferences in April and May respectively.Intercept's share price has receded considerably from the giddy highs in the upper 400's after the FLINT trial was unexpectedly terminated for efficacy at an interim analysis but could certainly revisit those levels and higher if OCA proves as active in other indications as it did for NASH. The zzporte portfolio has 30 shares with a cost basis of 311.
Looks like a joke to me...
Maybe it would continue to go up.
what goes up must come down. lol
Cant remember a stock going from 70 to $300 in a day. Great news re: liver treatment. I think this move will take a little to work itself out. Sideways to down likely for the coming months while it gets sorted out.I dont think the amount of shorts are high enough to keep this going.
If you downthumb a biopharm, you're generally considered a short, unAmerican, anti-sick people, (not sure where that one comes from, but trust me, it exists). Another one that I'm sometimes guilty of being accused of that may be somewhat true is "jealous" of missing the boat, but most people who watch/know me know that I'm an equal opportunist downthumb and even downthumb stocks I hold when they are out of character.In this case, a 300% gain from Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc's early trial news for liver disease, it's simply the "usual" from me. A 300% gain is NOT that much for a biopharm with good results. It's just the starting price before the triple, putting a stock in the $300 range that gives this the perception of being unusual or excessive. What we do have, however, is an 8% short population, running for cover, attention of daytraders, and an influx of what's going on retail investors smoking the get rich pipe. Generally this is a recipe for a pull back, especially in the case of:1. An equity that traded 50% of it's float before lunchtime.2. An equity where everyone who bought it before the jump is a big winner (3x-10x).Of course with non-biopharms we might be able to work some valuation metrics into the catalyst, but this can be difficult to do. Adam/The Street took one approach and puts the 5 Year forward valuaiton about 20-25% higher than it is now. I would hazard, however that that is not enough when weighted against the risk and against a 3-10X book gain. This was Phase II, will take some time, even if accelerated, will take more cash, (burn rate equal to a years cash on hand), then more investment to bring to market, etc. Retail investors who saw $$$ will not wait. Dilution will drop numbers. Additional testing could result in less favorable results, (not the first time this would have happened).On the other side, however, this definitely puts Intercept on the radar of big pharmaceuticals anxious to maintain pipeline of drugs with long patents not under attack from generics. In some cases they will pay considerably above book/target values for drugs of this potential. They, however, can also weigh the market share potential and competitor risks. If Intercept's drug is only targeted for those cases which don't respond to other drugs the market potential may be lower. Pricing is hard to maintain in today's environment, and time to ensuring side effects and labeling requirements can be long. Good luck to shareholders, and even greater well wishes to those needing the treatment. I hope both are winners, but short term, I'd be looking for a lower entry, or taking some off the table if I was an early investor.Short term call. NOT short the stock. (Non-available if I wanted to.....).....
IBD EPS, RS, SPROE, Acc ratings plus P/E and div yieldMEDICAL 4 99 DA, NO EARNINGS
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