Idenix Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IDIX)

On November 20, 2009 at 12:21 PM, zzlangerhans (99.50) wrote:

I'd like to submit Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX) and possibly become the first submitter to be carrying an underperform pick on the same stock in his own profile. The stock is down 26% from my red thumb nearly two years ago but the S&P is also down 22% and I don't want to close such a longstanding pick without a positive score.

Here's my outperform pitch: After flying almost to 10 in halcyon days before the sun melted their wings, Idenix now trades at an all-time low of 1.84. Novartis declined to license the hepatitis C drug IDX184 despite reasonable proof-of-concept data and the company has now initiated a phase II trial without a partner. The stock's continued decline after the Novartis rejection reminds me of a jilted lover, spending a few months in depression before waking up one day and realizing there are other fish in the sea. The Glaxo deal for the anti-retroviral IDX899 may have also disappointed investors, but Glaxo's assumption of fiscal responsibility for development will help control the burn. The company has 60M in cash which will carry them through another year at least, giving them all the time in the world to pull another rabbit out of their hat.

IDIX has a too high valuation compared to its sales potential. It is also loss making.