Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:INFI)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

The Company's mission is to discover, develop, and deliver to patients medicines for the treatment of cancer and related conditions.

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Member Avatar LMNOPQRStallion (91.04) Submitted: 8/26/2015 12:40:09 AM : Outperform Start Price: $12.78 INFI Score: -21.19

Significantly undervalued. Market's initial reaction to huge ABBV deal for duvelisib almost a year ago now was quite appropriate, while the subsequent price decay reflects INFI's previous drug development failures with other candidates.

Dual isoform PI3K inhibitor duvelisib appears to be best-in-class drug, and looks to take market share from GILD's recently approved zydelig. ABBV is the ideal partner to position duvelisib, as ABBV will dominate the CLL market with ibrutinib and likely venetoclax. Registration study in CLL projected to reach enrollment in 2015, while registration study in relapsed indolent NHL projected to readout late 2015.

INFI will split duvelisib US revenue 50/50 with ABBV, and receive tiered 24-31% ex-US royalties, although per amendment of original duvelisib licensing deal with Intellikline, Millennium will receive 7 to 11% royalties from INFI. Despite crowded CLL/lymphoma market, there is plenty of room for a differentiated drug like duvelisib to reach official blockbuster status.

Excellent entry point as of 8/25/2015, call mid-2017 PT >$45

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Member Avatar TerryFool (75.34) Submitted: 2/13/2015 1:46:10 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.90 INFI Score: -17.40

BP 12 TP 19

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Member Avatar Crystalball (96.30) Submitted: 2/25/2014 10:05:58 AM : Outperform Start Price: $15.56 INFI Score: -48.31

Oversold, very strong metrics here.

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.76) Submitted: 6/16/2013 10:27:58 AM : Outperform Start Price: $17.50 INFI Score: -68.53

It's been a harsh fall for Infinity from the high of 50 seen at the beginning of April. While the steepest and most recent part of the decline was ascribed to safety concerns regarding IPI-145 data presented at ASCO in early June, the descent really began two months earlier. One might theorize that upward momentum was sapped by a large dilutive financing around that time, but based on my experience with these stocks I suspect that PI's in the IPI-145 study were feeding info about adverse events to hedge funds.

I missed the upward run and had a red thumb in CAPS, thanks to my proclivity to focus on late stage pipeline candidates and ignore preclinical and early clinical compounds. I maintained the red thumb even as Portefeuille had me buy 150 shares for #zzporte at 34.73, but terminated when we bought the second tranche of 100 shares at 20.06. PropThink has a great article in SA about the safety concerns being overblown here seekingalpha.com/article/1491612-infinity-pharma-s-safety-concerns-for-patient-investors-a-buying-opportunity . I'm starting to see a clear dividing line between solid analysis (PropThink, Red Acre, Robert Schwartz) and the pumping cacophony of various high school students and other unprofessionals on Seeking Alpha. It's rather bizarre to see the two styles juxtaposed on the same site.

I think Infinity has a great shot at a rebound for a couple of reasons. The first is that the IPI-145 toxicity, if any, seems to be related to the development of opportunistic infections. That is likely a function of the compound working too well in suppressing lymphocyte populations, rather than a true toxicity such as damage to hepatic or cardiac tissue. Excessive immunosuppression can be ameliorated by adjusting dosage, administering prophylactic antibiotics, are changing patient selection criteria. The second thing that makes me see Infinity in a positive light is their wise (in retrospect) choice to take advantage of serial dilutive financings during their ascent. With the most recent addition of about 400M in cash and 11.5M shares from the April financing, the "true" market cap of 1B is backed by about 700M in cash and no debt. That's a 300M enterprise value for the pipeline, down from around 2B in April. Infinity is moving IPI-145 into phase II development and I'll be very surprised not to see the share price moving back up again as long as no new IPI-145 toxicities emerge.

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Member Avatar IBDContrarian (24.30) Submitted: 6/27/2012 1:57:10 PM : Underperform Start Price: $13.60 INFI Score: +81.56

IBD EPS, RS, SPROE, Acc ratings plus P/E and div yield
MEDICAL 9 97 EB- NEG EARNINGS

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Member Avatar phatchips767 (< 20) Submitted: 4/14/2012 3:56:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $13.08 INFI Score: -73.60

80% increase since feb..

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Member Avatar biotecher73 (< 20) Submitted: 5/20/2011 11:42:10 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.79 INFI Score: -12.26

Stock is at a hard bottom with market cap less than or equal to cash on hand. Two clinical trials in play for its lead candidate and a backup portfolio behind that. Royalties are already coming in to make the company marginally profitable, and a single piece of good news is likely to send the company radically upward in valuation. Add to that a significant short ratio, and a short squeeze similar to ARIA in 2000 could easily occur.

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Member Avatar EMG114 (< 20) Submitted: 4/23/2008 3:27:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.04 INFI Score: -18.00

Good investment for the long-term...

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Member Avatar tharlow (87.42) Submitted: 8/24/2007 3:42:26 AM : Outperform Start Price: $10.16 INFI Score: -51.84

This will be absolutely massive.

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Member Avatar cardiacarrest (68.01) Submitted: 1/12/2007 10:32:50 AM : Outperform Start Price: $14.10 INFI Score: -83.00

Yes the madly ambitious Julian Adams at least has a track record to back up his new venture in Infinity. He and his sharp CEO have gone from basically nothing to on the market and in the clinic in 3 years. It should keep charging along....

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Member Avatar spoonbillmgmt (< 20) Submitted: 12/3/2006 7:13:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $13.64 INFI Score: -82.74

Enough cash to last until 2009. A promising drug in Phase I trials. Run by a madly ambitious Rhodes Scholar. Technology from some of the world's greatest chemists AND the developer of Velcade. A technique for developing small-molecule drugs with some of the complex folding of actual proteins. A very experienced team, mostly from Millenium. And, if you subtract out the cash they will have on hand early next quarter, you can buy all of this for less than the money already invested by venture capitalists.

Results 1 - 11 of 11

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