InterOil Corp (USA) (IOC)

This met a high level screen to indicate a sell and strong underperform against its peers (other tickers in its industry). My 1st version of this spreadsheet devles deep into the company's balance sheet and recent income statements, combined with other relevant price data for the company including insider/institutional holdings, short interest, debt levels, etc.
I'm testing capabilities of this 1st version of my automated, valuation spreadsheet matched with my personal criteria and see how it holds up.

Increasingly Excessive P/E

ultralong

Barry Minkow and Sam Antar think something smells funny over at IOC.

http://www.internooil.com/IOCAugust13.pdf

http://whitecollarfraud.blogspot.com/2009/07/interoil-john-thomas-financial-and.html

Interoil recently made a fairly large gas discovery and for that I applaud them. Now as for the 240 times forward price to earnings ratio, I loathe them. IOC isn't bad...but it isn't this good either. I can count 4 times in the past 3 years that we've seen IOC rally on the order of 50% in roughly 6 weeks and in all 4 times it's been hammered shortly thereafter. So it's time to huff and puff and blow this back into a normal valuation.

UltraLong

http://www.interoil.com/newsrelease/2009-03-02_Antelope-1_Flow_Test_Final.pdf

"382 million cubic feet of natural gas per day"!!

I am very curious how this well is preforming. 382 mmcfpd is huge though. To put this into perspective, the average Barnett shale wells' initial production (IP) is around 1.5 to 3.0 mmcfpd. I think the very best Barnett wells came online at 10 mmcfpd. I am not saying these wells are going preform the same, but im just trying to explain how large this well is.

Massive gas discovery.

This will be one of the biggest LNG producers in the world soon...

This company has a very large natural gas field in PNG.
China has large and growing needs for LNG in their region and has already shown interest in IOC. IOC has a small market cap compared to the resources they control.

This company has a lot of resources which are being discovered and has lots of upside potential.

Compare the return of this stock over the last year and the market. There are reasons this has outperformed.

sitting on reserves which have not been added to balance sheer

Playing follow the leader here.

Not a good enough engine to sustain this industry.

major new reserves, well-positioned geographically to feed off of china. IOC and PBR should both do well . . . either pick should get the job done for you.

i bought this stock for 10,70 usd for real money.. after the mega gas discovery more good things shell i come. i guess its easy for them for to finance their lng plant soon. may be they find other big wells in their big territoriy, i hard also rumors that they even could find oil! i dont know much about most stocks i rated here.. but i think i know much about ioc.. Strong buy

The Giant awakes.

Underperfom

IOC has a too high valuation compared to its sales potential. It is also loss making. The billionaire Boone Pickens sold off his stake in IOC before 2008-09.

IOC has found 8-12T's of NG and has barely started drilling their 8.5 mill acres. Others have run third party verifications and have invested ie T Boone Pickens, MER signed to handle the LNG plant financing, the PNG govt bought into the exploration rights.the PNG govt promises to sign an LNG plant financing deqal for yesr end 2008. others waiting on the outcome od the MER and IOC offtake arbitration decisions which others have said IOC will win very soon

after an IOC victory several off take agreements can be signed to monetize the NG.The current price only reflects the value of their ONG refinery. The other NG finder on PNG OIl Search just recieved $1.6 Billion to build their LNG plant on the island. So worst case IOC can monetize its assets with their LNG plant. More likely IOC will build its own plant..2014 open projected for the LNG plant.