Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI)

ipi

oversold fertilizer stock

Profitability in this sector are driven by potash prices and cost of production. Potash prices are going to depend on ag demand, which is pretty much determined to grow to meet biofuels production targets, plus huge growth in the developing world. Production costs in the mine are relatively fixed and natural gas prices in North America look to remain low. I'll take this one while it is beaten down (currently $21/share).

I see limited downside in agricultural stocks. Food just isn't going out of style - recession or no recession.

Fertilizer stocks are priced like food is going out of style.

climate change leads to less reliable harvests leads to higher food prices leads to more demand for inputs to increase crop yields

no debt. In bullish sector

IPI is an American play, only specialty potash in America (types needed for fruits and vegetables). Also, local supplier implies lower shipping costs implies greater local sales

This company has no debt. It sells a necessary commodity for a world population that is growing. It has high insider ownership. The price is depressed. The management is adept with its treatment of cash flow.

Largest fertilizer maker in America.

Their IPO was near the peak of the AG bubble but they are still a pretty solid company putting up good numbers in a bad climate.

INTERNATIONAL

CHINA

COMMODITIES

PLAY

Its US market has advantages--less freight expense, closer customer base. Some rocky management, changing lower expected potash output (Q4 2008).

Another chem/fertizer play on the rebound in AG sector

I've been short on this and covered during the big drop yesterday 10/16/08. Even I am shocked at how far down this went. I understand all the factors, including the general economy, but I honestly can't envision this going lower with any substance. Waiting for confirmation to go long, which I'd consider a solid break above 20. I expect to see this early next week given the absence of economic reports, so we'll only be seeing various company earnings for a couple of days, which will hopefully be positive.

I'm with Buffet that once people start calling a recession, it's already over or almost over. That has been shown to be historically true in articles earlier this year about past recessions. LIBOR slowly but surely decreasing, which although some complain, that's probably the best way for it to go.

Long run I'm bullish on fertilizer.

sold some shares on 9-15-08

IPO; commodity product

Battling at its all time low I think this stock looks to make a move in the positive direction. Election could have profound results on sectors such as this.