InterMune, Inc. (NASDAQ:ITMN)
The Company is a biotech company focused on developing and commercializing innovative therapies in pulmonology and hepatology.
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There are currently 14500 ITMN shares in my "fund" with break-even of around 8.70 USD. http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/fund-trades/678775.
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It's been a long way down from the highs over 50 seen earlier this year in the giddy buying spree after pirefenidone's surprise European approval. I scored once on skepticism about the lofty valuation but abandoned the pick too early. I think the share price may now have declined excessively after the company reported only 0.1M in pirfenidone revenues last quarter. After all, the drug was only launched in Germany, and not until the very end of the quarter.
I still think it is very possible that pirfenidone will be a commercial disappointment in Europe, as pulmonologists choose to await the results of the ASCEND trial which will not even complete enrollment until H1 2012. 2012 will also bring launches in France, Spain, Italy, and eventually the UK. I'm making a CAPS only bet that the share price will rise above this level in advance of ASCEND results, which I think are a 50/50 toss-up. Way too much uncertainty and risk here for a real life investment.
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Low Sales and Few Employees for Capital
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Breakthrough in its lung disease drug.
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Great new product and way oversold at current price
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recently suffered
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Oversold. Might see 15's again soon.
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Unless it got some secret, it's too much a run in a short time.
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The drug pirfenidone now under consideration by the FDA for approval for treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Function is also effective for MS and a number of other diseases yet to be fully tested.
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undervalued pipeline, period
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hpc trials are taking this company higher almost daily feb 2009 (best owned performer)
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With CAPACITY ready to roll and FDA announcement in about 10 months, the high short interest should continue to push the shares higher as short sellers begin to exit.
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Mixed data on PFD (pirfenidone) for IPF (idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis) make the regulatory path uncertain. FDA usually don't accept exploratory data analysis. Its HCV program yields good data, but may lose to the crowded competitors. Higher debt than cash is another warning sign. I expect to drop under 10.
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Strong results of trial
CEO looking at all possibilities to bring drug to market
Drug companies are losing revenue with drugs coming off patent so will be eager to buy new drugs
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Seems like this stock has been moving in a clear pattern this year. If the trend keeps up, its going down from here.
Plus the company has no drugs pending approval anytime soon, in the meanwhile they are stuck with a negative balance sheet.
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Hot stock with lots of potential. By '09 if product gets approval, this stock could be trading above 100-150, delving this company into a multi-billion dollar profit margin within a few short years.
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Finding a single compound as an inhibitor of Hepititis C virus (HCV) is not an easy task. HCV has 6 different genotypes and within each genotype there are a number of subtypes. It is an RNA virus which mutates very quickly. Therefore in a single infected individual there are a number of quisiespecies which may behave differently under certain environments. Therefore a single small molecule species that inhibits one or a number of quisispecies will select for the ones that are not inhibited. This path with protease inhibitors was tried before and failed for this reason. It inhibited only one genotype of the virus and not others. Two other reasons that the odds are against seeing a new class of HCV drugs is this; the only animal model for HCV is the Chimp and a true in-vitro (cell culture) model was just discovered 2 years ago. The chimp is not a good model because it is protected and also expansive. They are, also, naturally able to clear the infection on their own, therefore no drug studies are possible. The new in vitro cell culture is great but the HCV strain that actually replicates in cell culture is a 2a strain and not genotype 1. Why is this important? Genotype 1 is the strain most prevelant in the US and it does not respond well to current therepy.
I hope this is usefull.
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