Jack in the Box, Inc. (JACK)

They keep improving their menu.

EPS is much stronger than other fast food giants.

Equipment upgrades should not be seen as a disappointment. They will likely pay for themselves down the line.

Management spending to upgrade equipment is a concern and should keep this down, but will outperform nonetheless.

#1.Unemployment is up ...and will stay up.#2. Jack has always had a cynical in-yer-face advertising persona and working people are feeling more and more cynical and in-yer-face. Jack's persona fits the people----Jack wins over more customers from its competitors.

They are restructuring to produce more cash -- that is always good for stockholders. Fast food restaurants in this economy will do well -- look at McD's. They still have room to grow and as soon as they get their image revamped, we can see a lot more of their locations.

a good burger chain

Selling at 1.9 times book value which is lower than its 10 year norm. Current and historical ROE's are terrific-- in the 20 to 24% range. Expected 2010 eps is $2.32 per share. Needs to pay down some debt, but nothing crazy. This stock should outperform in any economic environment.

This stock has been tanking lately even with a decent PE and an even better forward PE. Way underpriced under $21.

Following Big J in LA's advice.

at a 10x PE this stock is too cheap for a company that serves up value priced meals in a recession

very well run company with little debt

Great product. Another recession/defensive play. Emphasis on more healthy options and Qdoba. Falling input costs.

If the election keeps pounding on how bad the economy is, I expect all fast food to see a bump.

This stock is over bought. Earnings are declining and will decline more rapidly because of new marketing expenses. You can't move this product in this market by expanding offerings which only increases scape and waste. Consumers are cutting back on fast food and particularly "fatty" fast foods. Closing/selling stores may keep operating cash flow looking ok just like borrowings of social security make government spending look good for a while. This stock has a long way down to go.

jumbo jack with cheese, curly fries, and a shake!

Qdoba will power this stock to the next growth level.

looking for some good news

I like burritos.

Quick and dirty on J-Box:

* Potential Qdoba spin-off. Think Chipotle. There ya go.
* No more E Coli headlines in the news
* Obviously the best tasting burger out of the top 3 (okay, that's just my opinion, but some will agree)
* Overseas expansion
* FCF from franchisees enable share repurchases and paydown of debt
* Looking to expand franchise/company mix by 5% / yr (2.5x current mix is managements goal) = more FCF = more, okay, you get the picture
* ROIC goal of 20%
* Funny commercials. Right, "good marketing strategy" sounds more business-like...
* Not looking for blowout comps...JBX ~ 2-4%, Q ~ 3-5% to achieve success
* No locations in the Northeast US, specifically none on Wall Street. May sound like a negative, but I categorize this as a positive. I have talked about "Wall Street Snobbishness" before. This is a classic "out of sight, out of mind" situation. Analysts on the street, disconnected with reality, may beat down a stock based off #s and a chart, but a regular Joe investor may have a leg up. Knowing the local JBX and Qdoba see more traffic by 7pm than the local BK and Wendys does all night may be valuable info. Just something to think about...

My estimates: JBX earns $2.50 per share by 2010 for a $35 dinner check. That offers more than 40% discount for purchases under $25 (which is a level I'm comfortable buying at).

I know the bear case. Inputs are rising (i.e. milk, cheese, beef, anything you put into your mouth for sustenance, etc) but I try not to worry about macroeconomics (excessively). This is a bottom up pick, which is a style I'm more comfortable with. I think we have a long term winner here.

I admit that I personally did not like the food, but everyone seems to like it. Its on the upswing and has solid financials