Jaguar Mining (NYSE:JAG)

Yes, this has already popped. However, look for it to continued upwards in the next few weeks.

Even $9 is undervalued

Jaguar Mining is an arbitrage play with a twist. One, you have to make some assumptions management will do the right thing for shareholders, which is a bit of a stretch. Second you have to have excellent interpretation skills, which I often don't have. Third, you have to step out a little bit in faith.

Jaguar Mining management apparently hid from investors that a buyout offer had been tendered a few weeks ago. Part of the interpretation is at what price. The headlines say $1 Billion in cash which would put Jaguar Mining at north of $11 per share, but here's the rub....do you subtract out the debt and what about the warrants. Intial reaction by the market seemed fairly conservative with a share price spike near $8. This made it appear that investors either couldn't figure the math or doubted the reality of the offer. I set my limit about $7.30 and backed off for some research. I was surprised when JAG dropped through my 7.30, activated it and hit $7.13 on the open. Someone was RUNNING and it was too late to figure out why. The stock recovered and has settled around $7.50.

Managment didn't say what their response to the offer was, other than they were looking for other stategic opportunities, meaning higher offers. This implies they would consider a sellout, but not the price range. They could refuse the offer sending JAG back down to $5.50. The question on the whether the offer is "real" seems answered sufficently for me. The China based company putting in the offer is state owned and has solid backing.

Arbitrage play the offer is real, what the offer really means in share price, whether management bungles it, if a higher offer will come. This will be a long 7 day CAPS hold, but I like my chances at $7.30. Maybe little upside, but there should be little downside unless things go really bad.

For a company that has been losing an increasing amount of free cash flow every year it’s extremely overvalued.

The only reason this company has such a high valuation is because it’s in the business of gold mining. One day people will realize that gold has zero intrinsic value, and that investing in companies like this is a huge mistake.

Bellow is a link to an article called "Why Buffett Hates Gold." I strongly suggest all speculators to read it.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10927763/1/why-warren-buffett-hates-gold.html

Undervalued

added to actual portfolio at 5.15

Look at the report that was out today and the current gold prices. This stock should be around 9$ in the next few months.

mining

52w low will come back

I really don't see the reason this stock is soooo undervalued. I'm jumping on this one, let's see where we stand in December.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/249047-measuring-15-junior-gold-miners-by-cost-of-resources?source=TheMotleyFool

goldminingxpert haiku (MTH still not bankrupt!)

Costs up, profits down

Even gold bugs dislike us

But we'll change our spots

Jaguar Spends 60% of its earnings on interest expense & with the new $90 million convertible bond offering, these expenses will be slashed into half as well as capitalizing company to take advantage of the rising gold prices.

I believe it is a well timed move by the management & will show some tremendous support for this stock in short term. For more information visit my blog & facebook page for detailed analysis of this company!

http://holding.amijag.com/2011/02/jag/

&

http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?topic=13596&post=55566&uid=138917904187#!/pages/Amijag-Holdings-Inc/138917904187

Will start to shine 1Q of 2011. Hurdled production issues from 2010.

Just sold before earnings. Has dropped like I expected on earnings so its time to buy back in. The reality is that they are mining lower grade levels right now and the levels they will begin mining in Q1 2011 will be more profitable. Yes, the dilution is also due to the instability issues, and while its difficult to predict whether new mining method will rectify problem, its a reasonable bet IMO at this price.

JAG is making its way out of a hole. Good buy at this time.

STRONG BUY BUT WAIT IF DOW GO DOWN TO 9.7

Decent mining company w/ good reserves. Has to pay off eventually.

Last quarter's report wasn't good, but this company has a lot of potential.