+ Watch JBSS
on My Watchlist
The Company is a processor and marketer of tree nuts and peanuts in the United States.
Iam not nuts and I love peanuts ;)
This is my only really nutty play.
Positive:- Recent momentum- Below tangible book value- Focus on responsibility and sustainability, will pay long-term- Q1 was ok, they were able to increase output prices faster then input pricesNegative:- Small company, volatile stock which could lose a lot in a crisisCategory: R13BRm
Long watchlist (I know there is a watchlist function on CAPS, but I don't seem to actually watch the stocks on that list)
They grow and shell their own pecans... one of the fasted growing food items of the Chinese palate... money on the plate...
happened across them, glad I did. Solid little company. Given Q1 is usually their worst, if they report positive EPS Q1 that would make me incredibly bullish.
No peanuts here when this company takes off.
JBSS is trading at 0.6x tangible book value and 0.2x sales. Their recent fiscal year has been horrendous, due to nut costs that have been high but are now coming down. Unfortunately, the company only buys nuts once per year, so they are still working off their high cost inventory, particularly in almonds, which don't run out until the end of October 2006. Going forward from here we will see steady increases in earnings. JBSS is a cyclical company, but not cyclical with the economy. The company's cycle is based on commodity prices for nuts. And right now the company is emerging from a cyclical trough, and at the same time the company's valuation is at a trough (I believe the company is trading at less than 5x normalized earnings). If the company can get back to their historical average gross margin of 17%, they should be able to earn $2+ per share, which I expect to happen by FY 08 (year ending in June). By FY 09, due to cost savings from the plant rationalization project, $2.50 per share should be possible.Slap a 10x forward multiple on those earnings and you are looking at more than a double from current prices.Risk reward is very favorable - on the downside you are trading already at a discount to tangible book value, so it's hard to see the stock go down much further from here.
Trading at a significant discount to book value...which is probably why Seth Klarman's been a *big* buyer recently....
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