SPDR KBW Bank (ETF) (KBE)
Exchange traded funds.
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Financials have to improve or else we are all broke.
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Excluding the 19 biggest banks that underwent the stress test, banks with nonperforming loans above 5% had combined deposits of $193 billion, according to Bloomberg data.
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I think the regional banks reporting this week, especially in ohio/michigan/illinois and the southeast are going to have terrible earnings in addition to the market and in particularly finance stocks being way overbought. These little regional banks don't have the same resources for masking their loan and credit losess as a C, BAC, or GE capital. C sold Smith Barney, BAC sold China Commerce and GE capital receives injections from it's parent which really helps inflate the numbers, but revenue is disgustingly bad. So far most of the regionals that have reported haven't had atrocious earnings when compared against estimates, but they are all suffering major writedowns, credit losess and their true valuations are being seen. You've got $18 banks earning .8 cents a quarter. these banks need to stop being valuated based on Trailing earnings eventually and when they're based on 2010 earnings, the picture doesn't look much better than Q2.
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Banks have had a big run. The "toxic" assets that caused the crisis are all still around though.
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KBE has a too high valuation compared to the weakness of bank stocks.
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Someday the muck will clear and finacials left will soar.
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too many holes left
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This an ETF that tracks the banking industry. Right now(July 2008) the banking industry is valued based on a high degree of fear.
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Continuing with the financials...
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My thesis is that the US stock market has bottomed and the market should go up from here on, helped by a series of Fed cuts and other innovative moves by Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson to shore up the banks and the investment houses mired in the subprime mortgage morass. I believe the Financials would lead the market, followed by technology and retail. With the federal government sending out the tax rebate checks, I expect more buying in the retail stores of clothing, shoes, household goods, electronics and such. When the market is starting out from such troubled times (especially the Financials), it may be safer to have a sector approach rather than individual companies. For example, almost everybody agrees that the Financials would go up, but, no one can say if Citibank will survive or how long it would take to come back to its glory days. That said, I should point out that I have a lot of confidence in their new CEO, Vikram Pandit (a super smart finance whiz and who is a fellow India native!). I have picked two ETFs in this sector: Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and KBW Bank ETF (KBE).
Firstly, I have to tell you that I have some difficulty in picking between XLF and KBE. As you can see by their composition, they are very similar. Both of the ETFs are in the same sector – Finance. They have 6 stocks in common in their top 10 holdings! But, the differences are: KBE is a pure banks play, while XLF is more diversified (within the Finance sector, of course) and contains American Express, Goldman Sachs, AIG insurance, etc. KBE pays a higher dividend compared to XLF (6.44% vs. 3.7%). In the end I have decided to buy both!
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Banks have been beaten down. there may still be more downside, but this ETF looks attractive.
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short banks/long insurance
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This ETF is heavily concentrated (only 24 holdings in the ETF) in bank and financial stocks (Top 5 Holdings - Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wachovia - make up 38.82% of the assets; Top 10 holdings make up 59.74% of the fund's assets). The banking stocks have obviously been battered lately, and now seems like a good time to potentially get large financial players at a decently valued price.

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