KB Home (KBH)

empty rally, just like the cash for clunkers.

I'll take the downside as this recovery just seems a bit premature and one time items like first buyer stimulus. I'll take the downside from here.

Exhibit A would be the fact that the average new home has been on the market for 12.9 months. Exhibit B is that we have about 2-3 years of existing home sales just to absorb the vacancies that exist. According to T2, about 6% of all homes built this decade are vacant.

Exhibit C is that the home builders themselves have too much debt and too much inventory relative to their thin equity cushions. The home builders are in the position of trying to hold up a bowling ball with a sheet of paper...in the rain.

Lastly, the home builder stocks are almost universally expensive on a price-to-book basis." (NVR, SPF and KBH have the highest )
- quoted from The Daily Reckoning newsletter 11/5/09

Stagflation kills the buyers and the builders lose their customers.
Fraud in the first-time home buyer government assistance program may slow home sales in the low end part of the market.

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Overvalued with declining revenues forecasted for the next 12+ months.

Earnings still continue to suck. More foreclosures on the way so there's less incentive for new homes out there. I think this is going to retest its lows due to more losses and this continual suction downward despite "green shoots".

Long Treasury yield going through the roof...

Who needs a new home when you can buy a perfectly good used home for next to nothing. In fact...who can even purchase a home when you can't get a loan? Underperform And How!

I am buing houses right now. It is a buyers paradise right now. An educated buyer will not by new housing. Too much of a price gap.

This, and all housing stocks will slump over the next year. There's no market turnaround in sight for new home builders. Not sure why it's $13.00 right now? It should test its lows in 1Q 2009.

Terrible cash flow problems. Even in the best of times for the industry, they couldn’t produce.

Disclaimer: As I write this, I'm holding put options on KBH

It will be a couple of years before KB comes back.

The recent bounce was nothing more than stupidity brought on by the government bailout of citigroup and Obama's press talks. The downgrade will drop this stock in the coming weeks.

I don't think people will be buying new homes for a bit yet.

housing is a dog

Another homebuilder likely to suffer due to excess of stock, fire sales and lack of credit.

four thumbs down.

U.S. foreclosures are up 8% since June and up 55% since this date last year. Sure, the economy might be doing a little better, but according to RealtyTrac, 750,000 of 4.5 million homes (17%) that are up for sale are foreclosure listings.

Secondly, home sales fell 16.3% since this time last year. Can this new bill really help homebuilding stocks that much?

Economy.com predicts that even with the new bill, 2.8 million U.S. households will either face foreclosure, turn over their homes to their lender or sell the properties for less than their mortgage's value by the end of next year.

Doesn't really sound like a great future to me.