Key Energy Services, Inc. (KEG)

I LOVE KEG,,BUT A PULLBACK IS COMING...UNLESS OIL GOES TO $80 WHICH WONT HAPPEN UNLESS IRAN SENARIO HEATS UP MORE.....EVEN THAT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED SINCE THERE REALLY IS NO ECONOMICAL SUPPORT FOR THAT LEVEL...I AM CERTAINLY A BUYER AT $ 6

Energy will be on the move by 2nd quarter of 2010.

This is more of a note to self than a pitch ---

This company is tricky to value. My probable range goes from $7.50 - $16.00. If I have to take a guess, I think it's worth about $11. However, this assumes a pick-up in business. Net tangible assets are only worth $3.85 per share, so the margin for error isn't great. I would not buy in at the current price (over $8) due to the risks, but I still believe it will prove to be slightly undervalued, once things play out.

screener
CAPS Rating
4 - 5 on 2009-09-02
4 - 5 on 2008-12-31

% Below 12 Month High >= 50
4 Week Price Change %5 - 75
Price-to-Earnings (TTM) <= 15
Price-to-Sales (TTM) <= 10
Price-to-Book (TTM) <= 10
Current Ratio >= 1
Gross Margin >= 20

energy is on the move agian

Sleeping behind the wheel again. Missed the bottom out.

Natural Gas is Cleaner Burning than coal. CLNG vehicles are becoming more prevalent.

longer term

Gas and oil prices will trend higher. Good time to buy and hold.

Oil will rise again when inflation becomes the concern again, so will oil services companies...

Once the dust settles in the next 3 - 4 months, the economy will rev up and energy will end up being the backbone of the industry as we explore new ways to supply energy more efficiently and cost effectively.

New Administration is opening the flood gates for domestic gas and oil production

I can make a buck or two here.

I can't believe this is so cheap. And with a falling $ oil will go up, and the recent supply cuts will be felt in the market

Dirt Cheap
P/E 3.4
Price to book 0.6
EV/Ebitda 2.6
DCF value 16 (vs. current price of 4.6)

Safe
Debt to equity 0.7
Interest cover 5.5

Profitable
RoE 17.5%

Industry outlook excellent
We need more oil wells - oil well productivity declining
You need me type of service

Competitive advantage
Good

Cheap according to my calculations.

I keep buying into this and then selling, it keeps surprising me. Has a PE less than 16. Even though its had a lot of growth, its debt to capital ratio is great.

Key Energy started by buying smaller companies to get their sheer size up and going. Now that they are being recognized as a big player in the service company world, their demand is growing with it. I don't see anywhere but up for them, with minor dips when they take over another smaller company. Experienced operators are in high demand, and Key is making the necessary moves to position themselves at the right time.

I am going along on the ride as price of Nat Gas and OIL keeps going up and up. KEG seems to be a lager compared to the industry. We had a nice gain after earnings but now it seems to be retracting while competitors keep gaining? With the announcement of the on going share buy back we should be a leader not a lager. Any one know what is going on please inform. I am still long and looking for a 18, 19 SP in the near 3 months.