King Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NYSE:KG)
The Company is a vertically integrated pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures, markets and sells branded prescription pharmaceutical products.
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Recs
patents running out, no bigger strike to profit margin in a pharmy stock.
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Collaboration with PTIE is what will save this laggard. Expect up an annual '07 return of 20% from low 17's share price.
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King Pharmaceuticals is not a ‘king’ anymore. Yes, the kingdom is under attack from generic competition. The company makes branded pharmaceuticals including cardiovascular, critical care, and neuroscience products.
The long-time threat of generic competition has already begun to negatively impact the performance of the company in the third quarter of 2006. The branded pharmaceutical segment, which generates 88% of the revenues, saw a 5% decline in the same quarter.
The slide in the performance is expected to continue as premier drugs of the company, namely Altace, Skelaxin and Thrombin, are likely to face generic competition in the near future. Altace is expected to go off-patent in 2009; however the company is trying its best to offset the decline of this drug by working on a new formulation of Altace/HCTZ to potentially replace the drug. Other leading drugs Skelaxin and Thrombin could face generic competition from Sandoz, a subsidiary of Novartis in 2007 and from Zymogenetics in 2009. Moreover, royalties from the drug Adenoscan are expected to be under extreme pressure in the coming years as Teva and CV Therapeutics prepare to launch a generic version of this drug.
The product pipeline of the company looks intriguing. It has three investigational drugs in Phase III clinical trials. Successful completion of the trials could lead to NDA filings of Altace/HCTZ combination and Remoxy in 2007. Considering the brisk growth in pain management drugs, we are bullish on the prospects of Remoxy. Nevertheless, with declining prescription sales and upcoming challenges from generic competition, the company’s outlook seems to be grim.
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We like the look of their business. They're acquiring very intelligently: zaleplon for sleep, metalaxone for back pain, and they're spending the money to wring a few more years of patent life out of ramipril for the pediatric indications.
They've teamed up with Palatin on bremelanotide, which we think is the next blockbuster drug of this decade; we're concerned that they're not big enough to market it properly, but we're optimistic that when it's approved, one of the big boys will merge or acquire them to get their hands on it.
And as a practicing epileptologist, we're thrilled about Vanquix. As far as we (and my patients!) are concerned, they can't bring this to market fast enough.
We don't understand why they're investing $778 million of their cash reserves in debt securities instead of granting a dividend - especially when they turn around and borrow 400 million - and the large amounts of convertible KG out there make us a little nervous. But on balance we're bullish.
Recs
Looks like it's starting to move up... balance sheet looks good... Not too sure about the long term prospects but for the short term it looks up.
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Great managemment team with the right kind of experisnce
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