US Airways Group, Inc. (LCC)

Besides the laundry list for not investing in airlines at all (umm, let's see: oil costs, less spending money in a recession, huge overhead costs, terrorism fears, etc...), the big airlines - Continental, United, Delta, and the like - have been dragging for years. And now they have fresh competition even WITHIN the industry, like JetBlue and Southwest, to deal with - companies that are cheaper, friendlier, younger and more agile - and who don't necessarily charge you an extra $25 to check a single bag. On top of this, ask anyone who frequently flies overseas whether they'd prefer ANY big European airline over ANY American one for any kind of travel - I'd bet money on anything but American.

fly with them, go ahead i dare you

Planes go up so this stock will too

After 4 years of grasping with bankruptcy and mergers, the staff of US Airways has forgotten how to be friendly in a way that has become almost institutionalized. This is bad in an industry where consumers generally don"t like the current product delivery, and would quickly spring for any other airline that offers any sort of creature comfort. You don't get anywhere making your customers mad.

-Modernizing fleet, will have one of the youngest and most fuel efficient by 2012
-Has 2.8 billion in cash
--2.2 billion is unrestricted
-Hedged fuel costs for Q1 and Q2, and had a lower hedge for Q3
--This means that Q3 hedging loss will be lower than other airlines (NWA had a 66% hedge in Q3 and will suffer that as a loss with the price of oil going down)
-Only lost 110 million due to fuel in Q2
-A la carte pricing structure is expected to raise 400-500 million annually
-The major debt other members talk of isn't due until 2014 after debt refinancing by the company
-In 2007 the company posted a profit of $427 million and about 12% yearly revenue growth rate
-In 2009 LCC has already set up future fuel hedges

Don't see why this isn't a bullish stock.

No measurable insider ownership, all institutional. LT debt is 3x cash on hand, 7 analysts currently following. Unfortunately this whole industry is very volitle based on oil/fuel costs. Just under 1B in negative cash flow last year. I don't know that I agree that you're going to get much revenue by charging extra for window seats or sitting at the front of the plane. I personally switched to another airline when I found that they wanted to charge me for a window seat when checking in online, versus taking whatever was left upon arrival at the airport. Of discount carriers, AirTran and Southwest are the best to fly, and of the main carriers I pick American. No doubt this stock will go up just because the industry has been beaten to a pulp, but long term staying power is not thre unless they do some serious re-thinking at the top. I'll be optimistically watching and hoping the guys at the top can come up with better ways to increase revenues, decrease costs, and attract passengers.

Ernings are going up.the impact of gas price should be minimal to the year profit which is estimate double from 2006 .Gas price has gone up 15%.that is not a big hike .plus the price has been lock at a minimum rate.Stock is trading at a bargaing price.

if you can't short and airline, what CAN you short? It's only a matter of time...

It's hard to believe that Mr. Market values US Airways outlook at 10% less than it did yesterday! One would think a plane crashed. No I don't think airlines are out of trouble. 10% unemployment will continue to keep travel in check. Overall however, US Airways is holding it's own. Increasing it's cash position and paying down some debt. Citi buying all 23 Million shares of an offering today is interesting. That could be good or bad considering Citi's track record. Overall, it does appear to be excessively dilutive for a mere $100 Million or so of capital when you have $4 Billion in Debt. With expenses down, flights cut until the exisiting ones are near capacity, lower fuel costs, etc. I'm willing to give them a chance at this price.

If oil bumps up again, airlines will eat their recent gains.

U.S airways has gone down in the short run because of the swine flue scare. It is going down in the long run because people are now driving since fuel is so expensive. You can see that air line companies are hurting. They charge more for beverages and food on the plane. They make you pay more for suitcases. Everything has gone up which has made customer traffic go down.

perpetual airline bear. the economy has tanked, the price of oil is high, and the company is poorly run. 'nuff said.

Wage inflation and oil prices will murder cost controls and profits.

Not as excited about LCC as I was when I first picked it. Selling an additional 19 M of shares for less than the current stock price says two things. First, things could get very ugly over the next 6 - 9 months, so they need additional cash no matter the price. Two, even they believe their current stock price is higher now than what they were predicting. Sure oil is comming down, but it needs to come down a whole lot more before they can be profitable again. Right now airlines are a trendy pick in the face of falling oil, but the first sign that oil would rather be over $100 than under... there will be no one bailing faster than I.

Trading near a 52-week low, the stock is trading at less than 7x 2007 earnings. Very strong since merger America West - has never looked back.

Two airlines in a mess added together don't equal a good airline. It'll be bogged down in trying to combine separate employee groups, aircraft fleet types, maintenance programs, and marketing pretty much forever.

Here's an interesting tidbit: from it's inception to today, the airline industry has _never_ made money.

I bought into LCC when it was at $2.00 and made a small fortune off of it. Although I'm out now due to its volatility, I feel that this is still a good play for the price.

The new pricing structure, ie fees for bags etc, will hold as oil prices moderate. Most passengers will pay the fees for bags etc. This will increase revenue; for example take a $180 ticket to Orlando from the Philly area add to that $50 for a bag and you have increased the fare by about 30%. In addition they have many lucrative routes to Europe.