Lennar Corp (LEN)
Primarily sell single-family attached and detached homes, and to a lesser extent, condominiums, in communities targeted to first-time, move-up and active adult homebuyers.
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The management that Lennar has in each division are very inexperienced. The associates with the experience to make things happen were cut when the industry started to slow. Management decided to keep the lower salaried associates to save money. The results of this decision has caused Lennar to miss closings in each quarter since the slow down. Stuart Miller and the management team need to be hones with the stock holders and stop leading them on as if Lennar is doing great.
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Technical call - lower highs and lower lows = downward trending.
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Housing market is a true bubble. As this slowly becomes apparent over the next 6 months, most housing stocks will start a steep decline. Traditionally in a bubble, the key players drop by at least 80 percent from their all time high.
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It's going to inch lower to around 30 then i'll be looking to buy and hold long term for the turn around in this market. I can't own this stock while it's still on it's way down ...
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OBAMA GONNA PAY MY MORTGAGE!!!!
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Can gain more money in the future.
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The Builders are all about to book sales on homes built on land purchased at the top of the cycle -- at the top of the cycle most of the land purchased was expected to generate sales with smaller margins as competition for sites had greatly increased. Although construction costs have been falling over the past 6-8 months in most markets they are still near historical highs while reduction in new home prices are also at historical highs. Bottom line: Higher Costs + Lower Sales Prices = Poor Results.
Follow that up with a dwindling amount of sales (permits pulled decreased last quarter) and we are in for a much longer "recovery" period than the market is currently pricing into these stocks.
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I think the housing downturn will last longer than expected and homebuilders will continue to suffer. These levels might be the time for a bargain hunter to buy for the long term, but for now, I'm a bear on all homebuilders.
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Getting good company at bottom or near bottom prices
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If mortgage rates drop some by 2007 spring this stock will outperform the market.
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Going against the flow.
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LEN has a too high valuation compared to its sales potential. It is also loss making at least until 2010.
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Homebuilders bottomed out a few months back, LEN is in a great position (cash rich) to position themselves for a turn in the housing market.
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housing moving
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This industry might struggle for another quarter or two but I don't think it will be held down much longer than that. The upside is enough to outweigh the downside.
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This is going down... watch and see
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Homebuilder.
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might be a day early, but don't want to miss the move down on this one... dangerous with all the short covering.. but its only one pick
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-Drop more than 50%; Strong Insider Buying; P/B is lesser than 1 ...
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I don't think they will meet their target of -$0.80 earnings.

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