LeapFrog Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:LF)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company designs, develops and markets technology-based educational platforms with curriculum interactive software content and stand-alone products and these products are for sale through retailers, distributors and directly to schools.

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Member Avatar superstar (99.75) Submitted: 6/17/2015 11:53:47 AM : Underperform Start Price: $1.63 LF Score: +11.64

LeapFrog is the paradigm of a perfect value trap, and good example of how intelligent investors who diligently review a 10Q can paradoxically get themselves into losing investments. I remember well back in mid-December, 2013, LF was trading around $8 a share when I was completing some regression analysis of hundreds of Nasdaq companies when I came across LF. It appeared LF by almost any metric was trading at a dirt cheap valuation level. As I took a deeper look, LF appeared severely undervalued, the company had no debt, revenue growth looked solid, margins were above average, and if you placed even a conservative multiple to the stock it appeared it could have easily been valued at around $15 a share. I started to get very interested in the name, I looked at Amazon and several of its top ten sellers in the toy category were LF products, and even decided to stop by by local retail outlet to see how LF sales were doing before earnings. I came out of Toys R Us very impressed, as when I asked a clerk about LF products, he stated, 'we can't keep these Leap Pads in stock, they sell out quick, try back next week.' To make the stock even more alluring, I remembered from the previous year by 5 year old nephew would not let go of his Leap Pad, and clearly was his favorite toy. With earning approaching, it almost seemed like slam dunk that LF was set up for some explosive upside, and I was tempted to load big into the name. However, one thing really caught my attention, the monthly short interest was significant, and I was trying to figure what this short-thesis was? What was I missing, who was shorting this stock and why? It appeared those short the company were already looking out years ahead and foresaw significant competition facing LF, and believed it would eventually the tablet wars. In the end, I finally decided to simply avoid this battleground stock, but was always interested in how this story would play out. In the end, the investors betting mom and dad could simply download a $1 dollar application for a learning game on their I-Pad to share with Johnny and Jill proved right, and it now appears LF will be fading into the sunset of defunct companies.

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Member Avatar ruinas (53.46) Submitted: 6/16/2015 5:34:34 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.38 LF Score: -4.46

doing poorly earnings - where are they?

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Member Avatar TMFCADeb (80.77) Submitted: 6/16/2015 2:55:49 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.38 LF Score: -3.92

I haven't had an under-perform position in CAPS since Best Buy, who has managed to stay relevant longer than I expected. So today I'm going with poor Leap Frog who now trades for less than the cash on their balance sheet. Just don't think they can compete any more, and there's not enough IP to attract a buyer.

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Member Avatar ra3nibbles (< 20) Submitted: 6/16/2015 11:29:51 AM : Outperform Start Price: $1.40 LF Score: +2.61

Top tech company that got sloppy and knows it. They're on the rebound.

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Member Avatar oscillation (< 20) Submitted: 6/14/2015 1:30:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.55 LF Score: -7.75

nev

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Member Avatar DrDoofenshmirtz (32.71) Submitted: 6/12/2015 3:39:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.55 LF Score: -7.07

I'll take a chance on LF at this level.

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Member Avatar NHWeston102 (59.48) Submitted: 6/12/2015 12:56:14 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.57 LF Score: +8.31

Leapfrog Croaks! LF just can't seem to find a product lift even though they have some wonderful systems. Buy out might rescue them but who? Toys is a tricky category,

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Member Avatar BlazerMania (97.25) Submitted: 6/12/2015 11:57:14 AM : Underperform Start Price: $1.59 LF Score: +9.48

This a sad CAPS call for me, as I really love the LF products. Not the tablet stuff, but the "hard toys" that have given my kids so much pleasure. But the company shifted to a business model that essentially requires it to compete with Amazon, Apple, and Google to a lesser extent. Not a smart move, and I think the stock is going to zero.

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Member Avatar Dreadnought (47.57) Submitted: 2/28/2015 10:06:47 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.56 LF Score: -42.88

Massachusetts

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Member Avatar clanza875 (32.68) Submitted: 1/28/2015 12:40:30 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.49 LF Score: -45.10

Selling for a substantial discount to Net Asset Value

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Member Avatar personaltrader (< 20) Submitted: 1/28/2015 11:33:09 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.44 LF Score: -44.05

Almost $4/share in cash, AR and inventories (discounted heavily, of course) and trading for $2.50. Most of the massive EPS loss is non-cash and non-recurring. Not a stellar company, but a heck of a discount to tangible book.

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Member Avatar spsu03 (36.76) Submitted: 12/18/2014 9:58:29 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.88 LF Score: -71.33

Dirt cheap. Either it rises due to sales increases or gets bought out.

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Member Avatar BigFatBEAR (28.99) Submitted: 11/19/2014 8:01:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.45 LF Score: -75.44

watching from here

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Member Avatar naughtyguy (32.30) Submitted: 11/16/2014 9:50:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.04 LF Score: -73.52

Oversold on a bad qtr results

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Member Avatar Quiza23 (57.44) Submitted: 10/19/2014 10:28:39 AM : Underperform Start Price: $5.83 LF Score: +85.84

Looking at the numbers, yeah, I said, I'll buy into the idea that this will go up. But later I sought out the retail end of the company and saw first hand that they don't present well in the retail space they occupy. Unless that changes there is not much chance they will survive. The competition is better priced and flexible while showing their wares more effectively.

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Member Avatar Redbeagle (43.57) Submitted: 10/3/2014 2:25:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.22 LF Score: -82.58

Leapfrog has been through hard times as it developed new platforms and products, but this Christmas season should be a breakout time for the company.

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Member Avatar drcessexdo99 (65.67) Submitted: 9/8/2014 4:12:29 PM : Underperform Start Price: $6.27 LF Score: +80.80

This company just seems to keep finding itself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Its volatility was an additional concern.
I tend to find myself on a progressive downward trend and loss with stocks like this.

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Member Avatar olipapa01 (< 20) Submitted: 8/5/2014 4:13:57 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.08 LF Score: -85.12

Well despite leapfrog recent quarterly results, i really believe with the new video game segment,and leap watch they could make a really great holiday season wich we all know the most important quarter for them from all off those quarters

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Member Avatar TMFBwithbike (72.56) Submitted: 7/4/2014 9:32:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.60 LF Score: -86.11

Loved it when our kids were younger, everyone is betting against them!!! time to buy.

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Member Avatar TMFtheEdge (99.14) Submitted: 6/23/2014 12:39:31 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.30 LF Score: -111.83

2014-06-19 Updated thoughts

Leapfrog lends itself as an interesting "value play" with consistent free-cash-flow (from 2011) and a cashflow yield of 7.8%. While the company has shown that it is able to come out with innovative products from time to time, the business growth does not seem show consistent, durable growth over the long term. IMO - I feel that the company will benefit from an Apple-like stronger focus on less things. All in all, the stock might just benefit from the low value point currently.

No longer a long term hold.

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