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$9.64 -0.11 (-1.13%)
7/23/2008 4:09 PM

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (USA) (LGF)

CAPS Rating:
***

The Company is a diversified independent producer and distributor of motion pictures, television programming, home entertainment, family entertainment, video-on-demand and music content.

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What the Community Thinks

Total Members

197 Outperforms
32 Underperforms
 

All-Stars

37 Outperforms
6 Underperforms
 

Wall Street

6 Outperforms
1 Underperforms
 

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Members bearish on LGF are also bearish on:

Ticker Tags

Movies (8), Movie Production, Theaters (16), Media (20), Small Cap (1922)
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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (USA) At A Glance

Current Price: $9.64
Last Trade Time: 7/23/2008 4:09 PM
Open: $0.00
Previous Close: $9.75
Daily Range: $9.57 - $9.77
52-Week Range: $8.43 - $11.37
Volume: 470,382
Market Cap: $1.16B
P/E Ratio: 29.92
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Stock Trends

LGF VS S&P 500 (SPY)

LGF 12 month chart vs. S&P

News & Discussion Boards

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Top Bull Pitch

Recs

2

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (USA) (LGF)

Avatar andyrew510 (57.13) Submitted: 6/05/08 3:09 PM

LGF is the most misunderstood media company on the planet. In the past 5 years, LGF has amassed an enormous library of content to distribute, which has increased their top line revenues by an average of 30% per year. For the past 4 years, LGF has delivered FCF near or above $100 million, with the ...More

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Top Bear Pitch

Recs

3

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (USA) (LGF)

Avatar PoorLibrarian (41.63) Submitted: 8/24/06 9:14 PM

LGF is great for the long term, but their weak Spring means their earnings aren't going to light up the sky until at least the January quarter, when they'll be able to book the money from an expected Saw III Halloween hit.

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Recs

0

 (LGF)

Avatar kristm (99.67) Submitted: 7/11/08 4:26 PM : Underperform Start Price: $9.62 LGF Score: 2.04

LGF is a distributor of films too offensive or poorly made for bigger distributors to handle. They've had some success with horror films over the last decade, but that genre is increasingly tired. The lineup of stuff they have coming out in the next 3 or 4 years is unimpressive, to say the least.

Check this list: http://www.imdb.com/company/co0060306/

Nothing I'd pay to see when I had a lot of money, and certainly nothing I'd pay $7 to see now that the economy is tight. When tickets and popcorn cost more than ever, only the truly good films will get an audience.

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Recs

0

 (LGF)

Avatar fatpanda (< 20) Submitted: 7/05/08 6:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.15 LGF Score: -6.12

The headline says it all: "Lions Gate forms joint venture with Eros Int'l" Eros is big in Bollywood DVD and If Lions Gate distributes in USA and Canada thats a goo thing.

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Recs

0

 (LGF)

Avatar wmpoppsr (< 20) Submitted: 6/05/08 8:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.87 LGF Score: 6.36

Every movie that I have seen with their moniker has been very good to excellent and that goes back several years. A simplistic application of the info given in the fool article suggest 08 earnings of 80 to 90 cents and thus p/e ratio approaching 10. The andrew510 info seems credible and the cash and buyback program is verifiable so it makes sense that this is a misunderstood company if not industry. So I am in for at least a double on this one and maybe even for the long term as I have an emotional attachment to the Lion's Gate Bridge as it is on my route to Whistler and it also rekindles many fine memories of Vancouver and its culture.

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Recs

2

 (LGF)

Avatar andyrew510 (57.13) Submitted: 6/05/08 3:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.90 LGF Score: 6.10

LGF is the most misunderstood media company on the planet. In the past 5 years, LGF has amassed an enormous library of content to distribute, which has increased their top line revenues by an average of 30% per year. For the past 4 years, LGF has delivered FCF near or above $100 million, with the most recent year ending with $137 million in FCF. LGF has also authorized a $100 million stock buyback program. It currently has $371 million in cash on its balance sheet, and about $328 million in debt that is in the form of convertible bonds w/ an average interest rate of only 3.1%. The conversion price on these bonds is around $14 per share or more than 40% the current price (which should ease concern about dilution). The reason why LGF is misunderstood is that most wall street analysts and investors who look at Wall Street really do not get the company, and this is evident most illustratively at the conference call when they ask very irrelevant questions. I want to try to explain some things. LGF did in fact have negative EPS last year of 62 cents per share (despite $137 million in positive free cash flow). There are multiple reasons for this loss. First, LGF's film slate last year was the largest and most significant in its history. When a movie company ramps up their slate, it is all but inevitable that they will have negative EPS. The reason for this is that for some bizarre reason, movie studios are forced to expense their P+A IMMEDIATELY, despite the fact that revenue from the movie comes over a time measured in years not quarters. 6 of the largest grossing movies in LGF's history have been released over the past 10 months, and revenue from these pics will be seen for YEARS. First in DVD sales/rentals, then in VOD, then in first run pay-cable, then second run cable, then other runs throughout the future. LGF still sells close to 100,000 copies of dirty dancing per year! The other reason for the EPS loss is that for another bizarre reason, is that half of the above discussed P+A costs come from PARTNERS, yet LGF has to expense it. LGF is a true growth story w/ over 39% revenue growth last year. It is amassing cash like a machine and it will continue to do so, especially after increasing distributional mechanisms come into play. From a fundamental standpoint this stock is incredibly cheap, trading at less than 9X trailing FCF, and about .8 times sales. LGF has been signing new deals every day to increase its distributional business both domestically and abroad. From TV to international, from movies to the web, LGF is expanding and creating the largest most prolific library in the history of content. I SUGGEST YOU GET ON BOARD.

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Recs

0

 (LGF)

Avatar mikotian (99.75) Submitted: 5/28/08 3:17 PM : Underperform Start Price: $9.18 LGF Score: -9.72

Movie studios are only as good as their last film. It's almost impossible to build enduring franchise value in this busines. Other stakeholders, such as actors and directors, hold all the bargaining power. Moreover, production and distribution costs are going up, and new players (like hedge funds and private equity) are moving into the business, making it more crowded than ever. LGF has no big name franchises that provide stability and cash when the creative juices aren't flowing. How many Saw movies can you stomach? I got tired after 3. The only movie studio that actually might be a good business is Disney. They control the intellectual property that make money decade after decade.

I think the chances are, they are going to have a year or two soon where nothing is clicking. Then they are going to gamble everything on a huge summer blockbuster and end up losing $200 million... That seems to be a recurring theme in the film business.

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