Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:LL)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5

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Member Avatar Torquepeak (78.05) Submitted: 8/14/2014 4:00:03 PM : Outperform Start Price: $55.79 LL Score: +0.17

Hard flooring trends will benefit LL. The stock was hit hard after earnings revision and lowering full year guidance. I like the new CEO, he has delivered before by cleaning up the supply chain. As the housing renovation and construction comes back with double digit CAGR, this stock will outperform.

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Member Avatar Kimer62 (53.05) Submitted: 7/10/2014 5:38:43 PM : Outperform Start Price: $55.13 LL Score: +1.18

Still early, it will be back after this beating!

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Member Avatar Shirak100 (81.35) Submitted: 7/10/2014 11:35:09 AM : Outperform Start Price: $75.56 LL Score: -26.29

short term blip on a solid growing company

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Member Avatar malleableplato (41.68) Submitted: 7/10/2014 10:27:51 AM : Outperform Start Price: $55.18 LL Score: +0.96

Price point

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Member Avatar TMFInnovator (66.09) Submitted: 7/10/2014 9:38:32 AM : Outperform Start Price: $57.10 LL Score: -2.74

This smells like a short-term market overreaction.

Will watch for mortgage originations to pick back up and the housing situation to improve. Also will keep an eye on comps at existing stores to pick back up after the rough winter this year.

Good unit economics, but short-term problems. Long term outperform.

http://newsletters.fool.com/30/coverage/extras/2014/07/10/why-we-still-like-lumber-liquidators.aspx

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Member Avatar smith972 (83.44) Submitted: 6/26/2014 7:04:44 AM : Outperform Start Price: $75.75 LL Score: -27.23

June 2014: Nice correction and time to start a position.

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Member Avatar TMFBuck (53.39) Submitted: 5/16/2014 4:23:31 PM : Outperform Start Price: $82.60 LL Score: -37.81

Lots of growth ahead and we're still only at about 900,000 new home starts which should pick up in the future.

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Member Avatar dbajack2 (53.26) Submitted: 1/15/2014 1:07:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $100.97 LL Score: -52.12

Next temporary housing boom is underway and they will ride the wave.

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Member Avatar 2win (< 20) Submitted: 12/18/2013 11:57:24 PM : Outperform Start Price: $99.06 LL Score: -53.13

Looking for stock picks in the housing sector after today’s rally on housing starts surprise, Jubakpicks article posted on December 18, 2013 at 8:38 pm

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Member Avatar 401ktimer1 (69.18) Submitted: 10/4/2013 3:30:22 PM : Outperform Start Price: $107.04 LL Score: -65.57

IBD 50

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Member Avatar modestus1 (< 20) Submitted: 8/26/2013 10:42:39 PM : Outperform Start Price: $99.24 LL Score: -64.57

Hardwood floor is very popular.

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Member Avatar DrLinks (52.51) Submitted: 7/29/2013 6:28:10 AM : Outperform Start Price: $93.51 LL Score: -57.92

Lumber is going to be one of the hottest commodities over the next 6-9 months

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Member Avatar HJBevgon (< 20) Submitted: 6/16/2013 6:46:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $86.51 LL Score: -56.16

Many people look down on LL, but I have used them and recommend them to persons who wish to remodel or build. Service is good, perhaps excellent. Advice is offered to confused buyers, but not to just sell a product. The company will continue to do well. I am surprised it has taken so long.

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Member Avatar Schle1cw (< 20) Submitted: 5/9/2013 7:12:47 PM : Outperform Start Price: $85.20 LL Score: -56.19

Th

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Member Avatar VELOCE100 (65.05) Submitted: 3/27/2013 2:37:59 PM : Outperform Start Price: $69.47 LL Score: -46.41

Housing boom, LL's business plan

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Member Avatar champagnepowder (73.80) Submitted: 10/20/2012 3:32:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $50.66 LL Score: -27.51

The economy is slowly picking up and from what I see locally, houses are selling much quicker. New construction is also picking up and LL is bound to capitalize on the renewed growth over the next couple of years.

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Member Avatar TMF1000 (99.70) Submitted: 10/4/2012 11:43:36 AM : Outperform Start Price: $49.63 LL Score: -23.32

LL was entered on my CAPS at $49.63.

I entered this one on CAPs even though the PE was high and the big runup it has had. But I believe I have identified a growth hook that makes this one a good candidate for my portfolio

My fear for the company is that if we go into another recession, the price is going to get slaughtered. But I am rethinking that fear. It is true, if we go into a recession and the housing market is negatively affected the price is likely to crash. But if they do it will recover and it would have presented a great time to add to our positions.

Even though, I noted the growth hook in previous posts, I probably didn’t recognize the combination of qualities that could keep them growing for decades. And that might be a good reason to buy some even though the PE is nearly doubled from the last time I wrote a page post on them. If we go into another recession and/or poor housing market, I will target this one as a recovery candidate. But I think it might be worth buying even at the much higher valuation.

There are 13,000 to 14,000 independent lumber yards and various flooring companies. These numbers aren’t including the big box hardware stores like Home Depot or Lowes. They have advantages over both categories. The Big Box companies cannot house the variety of flooring that LL can. LL buys much of their hardwood straight from mills which gives them a pricing advantage, if not a big price advantage over the big box companies – they have an enormous pricing power over many of the independents where the majority of their market share wins are likely to come in the decades ahead. Home Depot and Lowes don’t buy any of their supplies directly from a mill another advantage for LL. So they seem to have advantages over both category of competitors.

The Growth hook is so large I decided to place LL on my CAPS. And I think later I will add it to my portfolio. I believed the risk due to a failing economy very strong, but if one consider volatility as an opportunity - the long-term investments in LL: plural - should prove a good thing.

This isn’t a company I would buy big amounts initially. My goal is to buy some and then buy more at better value points over time. A recession and/or renewed housing market fears is likely to bring the price down, but its long-term growth potential does seem to be very high with a few decade growth potential combined with category killer potential. I wish I had bought this one when I wrote my last page post on them for HG/RB.

The other thing to consider is that it seems the housing market is doing better in the U.S.

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-09-19/markets/33941835_...

Home Depot sales weren’t up much but their earnings have been moving up very nicely. But the company that is most like LL also increased sales by 20% and that is TREX. They sell wood/plastic composite materials for Decks and railings. I had a deck made from Trex boards and it looks as good as I first built it and it doesn’t need painting – and wood bees and woodpeckers leave it alone and we have plenty of both where I live.

Both companies tend to go up and down together, so I think they probably serve the same demographic. What affects one is likely to affect the other. It is encouraging that both are doing very well now – perhaps that will continue. If so, even though the price has moved up a lot, it still may be a good buy because the economy is still doing well and the long-term/category killer growth potential of the company.

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Member Avatar johnjameson24 (< 20) Submitted: 9/24/2012 10:43:50 PM : Underperform Start Price: $52.20 LL Score: +28.14

overvalued

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Member Avatar SweetZ64 (90.85) Submitted: 9/20/2012 8:16:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $52.41 LL Score: -27.94

After an outstanding performance in Olypia 1, this stock has convinced me it is really worth buying.

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Member Avatar Wade32ru (< 20) Submitted: 9/12/2012 11:11:02 AM : Underperform Start Price: $49.07 LL Score: +22.83

OMG this stock has gotten crazy expensive! Who is buying it right here besides momentum hedge funds? Trades at 28x next year's earnings. Good luck with that.

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