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momentum LOPE 33% above 50 SMA wishingweathblog list
It's a very simple play, for profit colleges are enrolling ever fewer students because they are not only expensive, but of dubious value. This is not something seen at just one college, but look at all the for profits. They may beat eps, but ever declining new students will mean continue decline in earnings creating a vicious cycle of ever lower p/e. Until they fundamentally prove their worth and get it out, I don't see how they are going to succeed in the long term.
With only a few exceptions, the for-profit education sector is doomed, especially those which are heavily dependent on online revenue. Ultimately their doom won't be attributable to government intervention; that might just speed up the inevitable. The problem is competition from traditional universities, which are increasingly running for-profit ventures, as I've seen firsthand in the education industry. Competition from real universities is something most investors don't understand: most of these traditional schools are now offering online and continuing education courses, often in remote parts of the globe, that use precisely the same business models that outfits like Phoenix are using. Universities finance their traditional programs out of these for-profit enterprises. These schools have a huge leg up on the for-profit colleges: (a) zero taxes on endowment gains; (b) a reputable name/accreditation; (c) government support in the form of subsidies, grants, etc. Meanwhile, the for-profit schools only have tons of research showing that for-profit schools are the equivalent of quicksand for students. The only thing that the for-profit schools have going for them is the insistence that the free market can do everything more efficiently -- to which one can only reply: the traditional colleges have already figured that one out for themselves, and are heavily invested in for-profit strategies already.
Continuing education as a inverse market dynamic is clearly at play here. Serves an undervalued and -served niche that is starting to be recognized as a profitable vertical market. Intentionally building on-campus experience as well as capacity for off-campus customer. Drawing top talent for both products/services and management.
There is less momentum, less volume, and less buying going on. We are in the last part of this rally.
The 1929-1930 equity rally (coming out of The Great Depression) lasted 147 days and the market was up 46%. It has been the same amount of time since the March, 2009 low and we are up about the same percentage. It’s déjà vu (paramnesia), so prepare for a drop of about the same percentage (85%).
Time for the educational companies to come down some.
PE ratio of 125.I see it as a bad sign that they wanted to cash out at this time.How higher can it go? difficult to say because it's an IPO.... NI of 5.5 with a market cap of 767.5M? that's almost a billion haha+ they say the unemployed will take advantage and improve their education, but if it is so they don't have a job and they have time to go to physical classes (and not do the studying online through LOPE)... if insiders are cashing out as quickly as possible, even with the current market, no way I am buying from them
It's an IPO! :)
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