$23.97 -0.11 (-0.46%)
11/6/2009 4:01 PM

Life Time Fitness, Inc. (LTM)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

The Company operates distinctive and large sports and athletic, professional fitness, family recreation, resort and spa centers under the LIFE TIME FITNESS brand.

Current Price $23.97 Mkt Cap $992.18M
Open $23.85 P/E Ratio 14.08
Prev. Close $24.08 Div. (Yield) N/A (N/A)
Daily Range $23.55 - $24.54 Volume 508,893
52-Wk Range $7.07 - $32.05 Avg. Daily Vol. 876,000

LTM News and Commentary

Caps

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All Members

159 Outperform
200 Underperform
 

All-Star Members

38 Outperform
122 Underperform
 

Wall Street

12 Outperform
0 Underperform
 

Top LTM Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

winwalk1 (69.03)
Submitted June 04, 2009

Wow, caps community is not seeing the big picture here. This company has made it clear that they are going to reduce debt and keep growth at a manageable level. They not only did not loose memberships in the 1st qtr or 2009 they grew membership! I… More

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pseud (98.02)
Submitted July 08, 2009

The company's business model is dependent upon the slightly-above average Joe shelling out $100/month for a gym which is a bit more shiny than the other gym around teh corner which costs only $30/month.

Now that the tide is down, it is… More

1 Comment | Reply | Report this Post
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Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from members about LTM.

Recs

0
Member Avatar pharmacist2011 (86.09) Submitted: 10/28/2009 8:32:13 PM : Outperform Start Price: $22.35 LTM Score: +5.40

purely on technicals. Must revert back to the mean. I'd much prefer to buy on Monday, but I'll go ahead and jump in today.

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Recs

7
Member Avatar pseud (98.02) Submitted: 7/8/2009 1:47:05 PM : Underperform Start Price: $18.26 LTM Score: -5.78

The company's business model is dependent upon the slightly-above average Joe shelling out $100/month for a gym which is a bit more shiny than the other gym around teh corner which costs only $30/month.

Now that the tide is down, it is apparent that even the slightly-above average Joe is swimming naked. When you're busy worrying about making the next rent/mortgage payment, your kids tuition fees or simply getting the rude awakening that "Oh My God, maybe its time we started saving some money for a rainy day", it becomes tough to justify paying a 300% premium for the privilege of being handed a fresh towel before your workout. There are no customer contracts in LTM's world.

This will (very quickly) lead to one of two scenarios: 1. LTM has to offer significant discounts to retain its customers or 2. Lose a healthy (no pun intended) chunk of their membership. Either of these are terminal to their business which because of its high fixed costs relies on economies of scale.

One person pitched that their membership numbers are improving. True. But look at the same store membership which is declining. You can spend $20 million to open a new location and obviously some people will show up even in this economy.

It is arguable if the company will eventually file for BK or the stock will languish in low-to-mid single digits whereby some unfortunate PE fund buys it for $8/share on its way to eventual bankruptcy. In short, their business model was dependent on cheap and abundant consumer credit which is not coming back as far as I can see. Estimates of any "hidden" real estate value are grossly exaggerated, IMO.

It is only a matter of time before it becomes evident that like its customers, LTM is also swimming naked.

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Recs

2
Member Avatar winwalk1 (69.03) Submitted: 6/4/2009 3:41:19 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.53 LTM Score: +2.07

Wow, caps community is not seeing the big picture here. This company has made it clear that they are going to reduce debt and keep growth at a manageable level. They not only did not loose memberships in the 1st qtr or 2009 they grew membership! I guess the world is not coming to an end after all.

Next, like the new administration or not they have made it crystal clear they plan to attack the health care issue in the U.S. sooner not later and a big part of that will include prevention. This plays right into the hands of the Health and Fitness Industry.

Life Time does not require contracts. Sure they are more expensive M2M but the quality and service of these facilities are far and away better than their competitors. If you value health and fitness and would be willing to pay a little more for a better experience but don’t want to get yourself locked into a long term commitment “Just in case” Life Time is an easy choice.

Don’t underestimate this industry or this company.

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View All 62 Pitches »

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in LTM.

Score Leader

trav814020

trav814020 (34.66) Score: +107.19

The Score Leader is the member with the highest score across all their picks in LTM.

Top
Pick 		Member Name Member
Rating 		Start
Date 		Call Time
Frame 		Start
Price 		Stock
Gain 		S&P
Gain 		Score Commentary
trav814020 34.66 3/13/2009 Outperform NS $9.56 +150.73% +43.54% +107.19
SurvivalStout 79.35 2/6/2009 10/25/2009 Outperform 1Y $10.50 +128.29% +28.47% +99.81
investorexel 69.43 3/25/2009 Outperform 5Y $11.46 +109.16% +33.11% +76.05
Saluki89 74.17 3/25/2009 Outperform 5Y $11.46 +109.16% +33.11% +76.05
1st2 < 20 1/8/2009 Outperform NS $13.44 +78.35% +20.61% +57.74
BossDartToss < 20 12/2/2008 Outperform 3Y $12.67 +89.19% +31.71% +57.47 1 Comment
PepperoniPapai 89.89 3/30/2009 Outperform 1Y $13.23 +81.18% +35.76% +45.42
Moggy6Actual 87.86 8/8/2007 Underperform 3Y $59.97 -60.03% -24.36% +35.67
Relic666 67.01 4/6/2009 Outperform 1Y $14.59 +64.29% +29.84% +34.46
froiland77 26.33 8/14/2007 Underperform NS $54.58 -56.08% -21.65% +34.44
View Complete Scorecard »

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Member Name Member
Rating		 Start
Date		 Call Time
Frame		 Start
Price		 Stock
Gain		 S&P
Gain		 Score End Date Commentary
TrackFeltlandCo 46.96 7/15/2009 Outperform NS $20.45 +17.21% +16.55% +0.66
TrackOppenheimer 26.63 5/28/2009 Outperform NS $18.09 +42.56% +14.11% +28.45 10/2/2009 @ $25.79
TrackRochdale 38.18 5/12/2009 Outperform NS $20.23 +18.49% +18.14% +0.35
TrackScottBleier 63.76 5/23/2008 Outperform 3M $37.38 -35.87% -19.28% -16.59
TrackSoros 65.62 9/30/2007 Outperform NS $61.34 -60.92% -26.44% -34.49 1 Comment
TrackEveillard 89.92 9/30/2007 Outperform NS $61.34 -49.02% -23.98% -25.04 9/30/2008 @ $31.27 1 Comment
TrackBBTCapMkts 72.49 9/5/2007 Outperform NS $55.87 -57.10% -23.91% -33.19
TrackUBS 86.41 6/19/2007 Outperform NS $52.81 -54.61% -26.02% -28.59
TrackStifel 94.70 4/24/2007 Outperform NS $50.40 -52.44% -23.60% -28.85
TrackCreditSuiss 91.16 1/24/2007 Outperform NS $53.84 -55.48% -20.47% -35.01
TrackDoughertyCo < 20 10/30/2006 Outperform NS $51.71 -53.65% -17.37% -36.28
TrackBofASec 93.50 10/27/2006 Outperform NS $52.68 +15.91% +11.26% +4.65 10/29/2007 @ $61.06
TrackRyanBeck 61.95 10/27/2006 Outperform NS $52.68 -54.50% -17.95% -36.55
TrackRBCCapMkts 81.74 10/27/2006 Outperform NS $52.68 -55.37% -26.52% -28.85 10/8/2008 @ $23.51
TrackJimCramer < 20 10/23/2006 Outperform 3W $48.92 -51.00% -17.25% -33.76
TrackKeyBanc 90.40 9/19/2006 Outperform NS $46.85 -48.84% -13.94% -34.90

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