Life Time Fitness, Inc. (LTM)

Who will pay for expensive gyms when they can't pay for everything else in their life? Especially now that you can't use your home equity like an ATM.

purely on technicals. Must revert back to the mean. I'd much prefer to buy on Monday, but I'll go ahead and jump in today.

The company's business model is dependent upon the slightly-above average Joe shelling out $100/month for a gym which is a bit more shiny than the other gym around teh corner which costs only $30/month.

Now that the tide is down, it is apparent that even the slightly-above average Joe is swimming naked. When you're busy worrying about making the next rent/mortgage payment, your kids tuition fees or simply getting the rude awakening that "Oh My God, maybe its time we started saving some money for a rainy day", it becomes tough to justify paying a 300% premium for the privilege of being handed a fresh towel before your workout. There are no customer contracts in LTM's world.

This will (very quickly) lead to one of two scenarios: 1. LTM has to offer significant discounts to retain its customers or 2. Lose a healthy (no pun intended) chunk of their membership. Either of these are terminal to their business which because of its high fixed costs relies on economies of scale.

One person pitched that their membership numbers are improving. True. But look at the same store membership which is declining. You can spend $20 million to open a new location and obviously some people will show up even in this economy.

It is arguable if the company will eventually file for BK or the stock will languish in low-to-mid single digits whereby some unfortunate PE fund buys it for $8/share on its way to eventual bankruptcy. In short, their business model was dependent on cheap and abundant consumer credit which is not coming back as far as I can see. Estimates of any "hidden" real estate value are grossly exaggerated, IMO.

It is only a matter of time before it becomes evident that like its customers, LTM is also swimming naked.

Wow, caps community is not seeing the big picture here. This company has made it clear that they are going to reduce debt and keep growth at a manageable level. They not only did not loose memberships in the 1st qtr or 2009 they grew membership! I guess the world is not coming to an end after all.

Next, like the new administration or not they have made it crystal clear they plan to attack the health care issue in the U.S. sooner not later and a big part of that will include prevention. This plays right into the hands of the Health and Fitness Industry.

Life Time does not require contracts. Sure they are more expensive M2M but the quality and service of these facilities are far and away better than their competitors. If you value health and fitness and would be willing to pay a little more for a better experience but don’t want to get yourself locked into a long term commitment “Just in case” Life Time is an easy choice.

Don’t underestimate this industry or this company.

This is one of those stocks that I like to short when it rallies. I agree with OldEnglish. Sad but true.

Looks cheap on a p/e basis. And then you look at all that "capex" and see that this stock should be trading under $1.00.

too much debt not enough customers

Citron. Capex. Finished. After a long day of waiting for soup at the Salvation Army, people won't be in the mood to exercise.

A trend that is due to end.

Discretionary spending in an era when that is out of fashion.

Life Time Fitness is the premier operator of high end health club facilities. Despite the economic circumstances, health clubs tend to fare well in tough economies, as members find it a positive outlet that provides entertainment at a reasonable cost.

Despite tight credit markets, LTM will continue to benefit from increases from its recently completed units which have not achieved maturity, as they continue to ramp up to mature unit economics. With this in mind, I expect LTM to observe continued top line growth without additional CapEx.

The company also enjoys a sound balance sheet.

While I agree with the fundamental ideal of being a "go-getter" that this society is founded upon, I see no real future for a business such as this in the economic collapse that is about to occur. The only real excuse for not sensing the eventual distruction of this company is congenital idiocy!

While I agree with the arguments about our nation's obesity problem, wake up and smell the coffee, lard ass!! I'm not sure if you've waddled over to this side of the boat yet, but we're all heading for an iceberg!

Continuing to expand with a business model built upon debt-laden expanison, relying upon discretionary-spending, into a contracting economy, is a brilliant plan if one happens to be a masochist.

I think one of the reasons their attendance hasn't fallen yet are people giving their complexes (which sound like they're great) the Old Auld Sang! Thanks for the free money though!!!

Not a good environment to grow membership. Everyday.

Great facilities, bad economy.

Discretionary purchase
Highly leveraged
\IMHO As oil runs out, people will get more exercise bicycling , planting trees and working the land, dancing, doing yoga, having sex and other great carbon free activities that that re-connect us with the joy of life.

Lemon Citron

I'm going with Citron research on this one--too much debt and too little income--over $1000 debt PER member. I can buy a lifetime membership to 24-hour fitness for around that much.

The Cirton report brought this POS company onto my radar. After looking into the company, I agree it's terrible. They're generating most cash flow from sale-leaseback transactions, but they only have so many properties and I don't see the real estate market for huge fitness centers improving greatly, especially if the purchasing parties have concerns about the long-term viability of their new lease tenent. Coupled with declining utilization by members, this company is the walking dead.

Disclaimer: Yep, I'm holding some put options on this POS.

More debt than cash, not a good combination in this environment. I know I'm late to the downward crash party, but I couldn't resist. This should be some easy points here...