Life Time Fitness, Inc. (NYSE:LTM)

HoldSideAnalyst (< 20) Submitted: 4/11/2007 6:08:03 PM : Start Price: $50.49 LTM Score: +12.15

This company is a house of cards. The CEO is nuttier than squirrel turds. Negative FCF. Expanding too rapidly into new, unknown markets at the wrong time, and paying too much to do so. And, as the icing on the cake, EVERY street analyst is bullish. How many sell indicators do you need? The shorts have it right on this one. Besides, I'm long Americans getting fatter, not skinnier.

nineg50 (37.87) Submitted: 3/10/2007 7:39:11 PM : Start Price: $50.12 LTM Score: +14.22

I like the model. The centers sound like a winning concept, and I would consider membership if one was in my area.

The big problem is the fact that the company is growing at a rate that it probably can't sustain. The debt is off the chart, and earnings are growing but not at the rate that the debt is growing. Take a look at the P/E, and try and do a FCF calculation. CAPEX is larger than cash from operations.

CEO/Founder Bahram Akradi recently pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor assault charge, that was reduced from a felony stemming from an incident in which he attacked a high schooler after the teenage driver honked at him for cutting him off. Allegedly, he damaged the young man's car and attempted to pull him from the vehicle. If that bit of news does not reveal enough about the man then just take a glance at the insider transactions of late. He, and other officers, have been systematically liquidating their holdings since the stock price topped 50 back in November 2006. There are currently many analyst giving moderate buy/outperform ratings. Often this alone is a great reason not to buy the stock. Perhaps they are all trying to get the price above 55 so they can short like crazy!

This may one day be a great company, the first juggernaut of the fitness industry. An industry that I feel is bound to grow, as Americans become more and more health conscious. But I'm afraid that first we'll see a near bankruptcy, a restructuring, and a gradual rally back from the depths.

wood1028 (37.50) Submitted: 2/20/2007 3:43:31 PM : Start Price: $49.83 LTM Score: +9.82

No same unit growth. How long can they finance growth?

bpurmort (31.87) Submitted: 2/18/2007 8:38:21 AM : Start Price: $49.90 LTM Score: -10.31

This company is in major rollout mode. A regional model that has the capital to move to a national brand. Revenue and Income growth has been solid and growth potential is double digit.
it is a pricy stock at this point but the peg is 1.15

anylawn (36.90) Submitted: 2/13/2007 5:51:11 PM : Start Price: $52.32 LTM Score: -14.79

Only closed one center all the time they've been in business. That's a good thing because they cost around 27million to build.

tap99 (89.46) Submitted: 1/30/2007 3:19:18 PM : Start Price: $53.65 LTM Score: -18.26

I've belonged to Lifetime Fitness for six years, owned their stock for one year and am convinced that they know how to run healthclubs appealing to the middle/upper-middle/upper class. They continue to innovate with new products and services and are operationally excellent. Plenty of growth potential here!

nello6 (42.26) Submitted: 1/23/2007 12:22:37 PM : Start Price: $52.43 LTM Score: -16.39

Has anyone seen how busy these places are? ever time i drive by the parking lot is full, and with presence in less than 20 states with 10 more locations in the making, this stock is set to explode

UnBoxed (82.11) Submitted: 1/14/2007 3:28:53 PM : Start Price: $51.90 LTM Score: -15.30

Quality organization with differentiation, in a good segment.

btrivedi (28.64) Submitted: 1/11/2007 12:04:10 PM : Start Price: $48.49 LTM Score: +10.86

Cons:
- Customer service is steadily declining as this company grows. Operational challenges increasing.
- CEO is extremely customer-focused, driven, intelligent, but an extreme hothead.

Pros:
- Category-killer - outstanding facilities focused on families as well as invidividual.
- Still growing strong but see Cons for more details ...

kminev (67.99) Submitted: 12/23/2006 10:30:49 AM : Start Price: $47.93 LTM Score: -10.03

Life Time is the best health club company. I'm a member and I love it. It has room for organic growth and gaining market share. Potential problems: if they decide to make acquisitions, higher interest rates, overall consumer financial health.

djbusby (31.99) Submitted: 12/22/2006 1:07:47 PM : Start Price: $49.04 LTM Score: -10.64

Although I live in the Northeast and have never been to one of LTM's fitness centers myself, all of the commentary I have seen regarding them has been extremely positive. They have an outstanding business model, and are controlling growth while at the same time expanding into select, highly lucrative markets. I think that LTM's stock price is currently a little high, and a correction might be coming, but long term this stock will mostly go up.

LROCKACE (53.48) Submitted: 11/3/2006 11:40:44 AM : Start Price: $50.22 LTM Score: -16.74

Have you ever been in one of their clubs? Nothing like it with everything you could possibly need. Appeals like crazy to the Boomers and great child care to boot! Did I mention the 24% projected growth? Get on this one!

MCKInathan (97.65) Submitted: 10/27/2006 6:20:58 PM : Start Price: $51.71 LTM Score: -18.89

This is a pure speculative pick right here.

But I do have some reasons. First, Americans are fat. Second, health care costs keep going up...so once americans realize they can't afford healthcare, maybe they'll realize they can be more healthy by going to the gym. Three, company has growth potential. Four, I like gyms. Five, it's holiday season -- I'm expecting the typical guilty conscience after everybody consumes pounds of turkey and pound cake. Six, can anybody say New Year's resolutions?

Ok, so as you can see most of my reasons have no real basis in reality, but like I said this is a speculative pick. I anticipate 10% return...any more and I'll be giddy as a school boy. Any less, and I'll realize I should be more judicious about my speculative picks.

bmickeyaz (75.78) Submitted: 8/28/2006 6:06:17 PM : Start Price: $42.88 LTM Score: -7.94

Growth mode, double-digit earnings, sound business model and ROE of ~3 years.