Live Nation (LYV)

Live Nation and Ticketmaster are for all intent and purposes riding together now, for the good or the bad of both. Although on my last review of this matter their merger is NOT guaranteed as they have a large amount of overlap in an area that regulators are adament has sufficient competition to protect those who should be able to protect theirselves. Both companies, still, however spent $12 Million in pre-merger activities and are set to vote January 8th, so the deal looks probably.
Live Nation and Ticketmaster both topped expectations, but revenue for Live Nation was down MORE THAN 50% from the same quarter last year. Losing $60 Million on revenu of $3.1B in the last 9 months does show some potential if Live nation can get it's act together, but running up the share price of a company with minimal growth in an economic decline seems excessive to me. 1/2 of same quarer sales for LYV PLUS 1/2 of Same quarter sells for Ticketmaster barely makes ONE, and certainly NOT TWO. Live Nation still have a NET Negative Tangible Assets of $131 Million. TKTM still has a negative net tangible of $600M. Negative plus Negative is still a negative.
IF someone has money to burn and wants to overpay for their entertainment then they should be allowed to do so. Here, however is part of the rationale for my red thumb. Many of those partaking of the higher end concert world of Live Nations venues are those most affected by the economic recession. (i.e. Younger workers or parental freeloaders).

pending merger approvals. Going vertical in a business holding up well.

ps test

People still seek to be entertaned. With or without a Ticket Master merger, this should still be profitable, especially at this low price.

THE BOARD GAME!

expecting bounce back up to the equivalent ticketmaster price divided by the 1.38 whatever share ratio being used. (CAPS is bullish on ticketmaster)

Huge play right now!!!! Merger deals with Ticketmaster are being talked about. If the government actually allows this merger, it would form one mega player in the enertainment industry. I think that Live Nation stands good on its own and is on its way to passing up Ticketmaster, but with mergers in talk it makes the company that much more attractive. If there is a govt OK i think the merger will be smooth and fast. Both companies have around the same market cap and neither have an overwhelming amount of debt due anytime soon.

Live Nation keeps signing big artists, booking tours worldwide, and buying out event centers. Concerts are the next big thing for music. CD's and music videos are dead. The next generation of artists stand to make money in completely different ways than with "Big Time Record Deals." All of their money will be coming from concerts. This will also bring in advertising money from big time companies doing Promo events at concerts.

If people start spending again in time for concert season of 09 watch for Live Nation to post huge profits with or without Ticketmaster.

Let's hear it for live music. Truth is I like the idea but have some ambivalence on this one.

I'll jump in after the recent 25% haircut. Artists and fans have been fighting the behemoths of Ticketmaster and Clear Channel and I think this stock has what it take to prosper (provided it survives in the next 12-18 months). People want more control, hence music downloads, the power of iTunes and artists taking back control of their art. Summer concerts will not go away...I'm hoping for a big boost by then.

With downloads hurting albums sales the music industry needs a new direction and livenation is the right path.

But what do I know I have player rating of 22 and a negative score.

my wife wanted to buy this. she knows how to pick em.

High D/E ratio

I like this one for a long climb. The first indication was the deal they cut with Madonna. Now they have U2 in the bag, and they are about to add Jay-Z to the list. I think it's time to dump your old-school music stocks and start loading up on LiveNation.

Directors resigning, including one who was on the audit committee.

Debt/Equity of 0.9

Negative profit margin.

Forward PE 55.

I don't see how the cut that the event middleman gets will be increasing enough to make this one worthwhile.

This stock is bottomed out and earnings coupled new developing contracts are fully absorbed into the pricing. They're agressively acquired but pricing is now normalized.

Honestly, this is a blind pick. I watched ElCapitan's 27-second video pitch, then viewed the chart and ... well, I like it at today's price.

Historically, it has good support at about $21. Let's see what happens, eh?

Even in a market downturn people tend to continue spending on entertainment regardless of the state of their portfolios. Call it therapy.

How do you make a small fortune in music? Start with a large one.

I'm picking this to outperform, but I have to say, I'm not as enthusiastic as some.

My best guess at FCF/Sh for the year (Net + Amortization - Capex) is $.81, but this is likely generous, since it includes the second and third quarters, which are seansonally their best, but is annualized through the fourth, which is probably seasonally their worst. This is simply because people go to outdoor concerts, LYV's bread-and-butter, in the Summer, but not in the Winter.

Even then, much of this positive cash flow is amortization added back in, and half of that is an impairment taken against property, which they are planning on selling in the near future. That's great, but they can't make a living selling their properties forever.

So I ran a discounted cash flow calculation using the generous (IMO)FCF number above.To justify the current share price, using the S&P's historic 11% return, the company would have to grow at a rate of 17% annually for the next five years levelling off to 5% annually after that.

This is certainly possible. Maybe even likely, given that management has a long history of experience in concert promotion. But...

I'm not so certain there's room for 17% annual growth given that they already control almost all of the concert promotion industry. I think it's far safer to assume about 13% growth, since that's the "historical" (inasmuch as there's any history here) rate. That makes the stock valuation more like $18.

This is an industry with which I'm intimately familiar. I've been a touring sound engineer for about 25 years, and I've worked with many of the acts that are mentioned in the company's reports. I would love to have this industry grow at a 17% annual rate. I would love for LYV to bring 17% more business my way. I'm skeptical, though.

Also, I'd like to point out that it's all well and good to own and/or operate 170 venues around the world, but there's a huge difference between "own" and "operate." LYV makes money at the venues they own because they get the money from the booze and food and parking and a cut of the merchandise. The shows are a loss.

In a building they don't own (third party rentals) they don't have as much control over these revenues. So far this year two-thirds of their shows have been third party rentals. The good news is that this only accounts for about 20% of the attendance, and this number will likely improve with the addition of the House of Blues chain.

Since LYV makes most of their money selling parking, nachos, water and beer at their venues, I think it would pay to ask ourselves if we can realistically imagine ourselves paying twice as much for these items in five years. Of course, I remember when a ticket to a show was $4.50!

Please, if I'm missing something (besides the hype) please let me know.

Maybe. Tentative thumbs up.