La-Z-Boy, Inc. (LZB)

Shorting the unreasonable jump.

Upthumb. Negative cash flow. But staying power in their balance sheet. Negative cap-ex.

7.21

THIS STOCK/COMPANY IS A DOG....THE PULLBACK WOULD HAVE TO BE TO $3.00 BEFORE I WOULD CONSIDER PUTTING A DIME INTO IT........EVEN WITH THE RECESSION ENDING LZB IS WAY OVER PRICED....DUMP AND RUN

The 6th month chart is basically begging me to red thumb this stock.

There are so many hogs to be slaughtered. Hmmm... I may buy a Lazy-boy to sit in - during my wait at the bread line.

Price Target of $12.8 by Oct 2009.

Furniture just doesn't seem like the business to be in right now. It's about as consumer discretionary as you can get.

This rally is totally unfounded.

My guess is that the current profits are a result of liquidating inventory combined with low-interest rate financed sales.

In this downturn? Furniture? Seriously?

Cutting expenses 15%, cutting dealer network, cutting whatever they can to get cash. That they did. Unfortunately, the consumer cut them selves out too. Big time. Without sales pickup very soon, LZB will not survive. Management does not see that happening.

Everybody sits.

The line is flat. It is product driven and the product is not performing. As a result the stores that display LZB as the name are in dire staits, low sales and low cash flow.

For years they have tried to push major upholstery on to the consumer, it has not worked. But LZB is too vain to admt the mistake and get back to doing chairs which made the brand famous. Until the abandon the marketing philosophy hings wil not improve. Also management is inbread ie Darrow and White and the entire board needs to be removed.

How many sofas can you buy?

two thumbs down

From my short ideas/valuation screen

overvalued

sorry products and even worse customer support.

See http://www.footnoted.org/earnings-quality/relaxing-their-standards-at-la-z-boy/.

If La-Z-Boy doesn't want to hold management to "long-term" performance metrics, why should investors expect "long-term" performance to be anything but average.

No one disputes that La-Z-Boy has the best-known furniture brand in the world. The company's modest risk profile does not warrant such a low valuation. Its profitable upholstered segment will protect the company from ever getting into really serious financial trouble, and the company could always cut its high dividend yield if it felt it needed cash.

I believe the company's current marketing and distribution strategies will improve going forward, which makes me even more confident that LZB is underpriced today.

I would like to see the company continue to move its marketing focus downmarket, at consumers of more modest income--it should market more to Sam's Club customers and stop advertising in "Cottage Living." Its recent agreement to exclusively license La-Z-Boy's new line of outdoor recliners and patio furniture to be manufactured by another company and sold exclusively at Sam's Clubs is a step toward a very powerful strategic combination of leveraging its: brand recognition, reputation in the subsector of motion furniture, position as an affordable luxury, large research and development budget compared to other furniture companies, and ability to outsource production to lower cost producers.

LZB is also well positioned for the developed world's aging demographics. As first-world countries' populations reach retirement age and beyond, they will find motion furniture more attractive. It should also be noted that the elderly have higher net worths than younger people, contrary to popular misconception. Also, do you expect the future to involve more sitting and looking at TV or computer screens, or less viewing of screens? The answer is likely to be more, which favors comfortable motion furniture.

Not only do I expect the share price of LZB to increase , but this price appreciation will be additional to its large dividends.

I have to agree with the Fools on this one.