Macy's, Inc. (M)

stable, good products...

Downthumb. Very high debt ratio (1.9) Falling sales. Negative cash flow. Poor cash management.

A partial replay of last year. The stock will likely fall as sales do not meet expectations. The S&P 500 will probably be supported by mutual fund managers trying to beautify their holdings prior to their year end report. So M will likely fall relative to the S&P 500 within this next year.
Adding to the stress on retailers is the realization that the unemployment rate is unlikely to come down any time soon and is more likely to keep rising until the administration changes its policies to help small businesses.

Possible bankruptcy in the next 12-15 months.

I'm still willing to fight the trend (ridiculous levels of optimism over cost-cutting and "less-worse" earnings reports). This "growth trend" is not sustainable. Check out M's P/B ratio...wow. Making a bold call through the holiday season...sell M!

Job growth is lousy, XMAS bad, more pain to come.

- The stock has almost tripled since March 5th
- Tired stores in need of refurbishment
- Way too much debt on the balance sheet
- Mis-positioned...they try to be both luxury and value, and come off as neither
- Initial target is $10

Based on personal experience, stores are devoid of people and a total disaster. Massive clearance sales. Incompetent employees. Plus, they are loaded with debt.

Macy's is a dying retail dinosaur. They bought May Dept Store company and expected to reap the profits from both companies. In my mind May was much better run. They had people to actually sell you merchandise. Macy has gotten rid of almost all sales floor staff to sell the merchandise in the overcrowded and outdated stores.

Now consumers max out credits very few spend cash in this state of economy!!

Traditional mall anchors were looking weak before the recession. Can't see why these guys have come back up so far.

Debt is greater than equity or market cap by a couple billion. Revenue hasn't completely collapsed, but operating expenses continue to make profits red rather than black. Unless they can cut way back next quarter, expect earnings to trigger a sell-off.

$13 looks like an OK entry to short, with the possibility of getting out in the 11s somewhat likely before the year is up.

Macy's is a high end retailer that has experienced significant sales declines in this embattled economy. I expect further bad news. I am short the high end retailers while long on the low price chains.

No more shopping for you

Macy's is great. They took huge losses at the end of last year, but have been slowly keeping up. They have a great market. They are somewhere in between nordstroms and jcpenny. This company captures both high and low end customers. I believe they will underperform for the next few weeks but when summer shopping season really starts in July things will pick up for most retail stores.

Retail is a nasty place to be in right now, especially in regards to expensive unneeded items like Macy's. They keep posting major losses, which I see no end for.

GOOD STORE

I think that Macy's has been through worse. It is known for being cheap. As an unrelated side note: Who could bear to take away the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade?

All retail is going down. Beating expectations doesnt mean anything, it just means the expectations were to low to begin with...