The Macerich Company (MAC)

Can anyone say commercial real estate? If this stock outperforms the SP500, I'll find some way to surgically attach my head to my arse.

Reggie's analysis...

http://boombustblog.com/200911031196/Re-Commerical-Real-Estate-and-REIT-s-It-s-About-That-Time.html

As we navigate through future, the problems in the financial sector are expected to get worse before they stabilize wherein our expectations of the Distressed scenario (explained later in the report) could well turn into a reality posing a further downside to MAC’s valuation of 64% from the current levels. However, based on weighted average of valuation (probabilities of likelihood of each scenario being the weights used) arrived under four scenarios (mentioned later) including the Distressed scenario, we have arrived at valuation of $9.9 per share for MAC.

Commercial real estate seems to be the least promising sector I can find right now. Combine that with the dreadful numbers (check its ratios) and this company looks a poor bet for the next year (and probably longer).

Commercial real estate is on shaky ground, if the recovery is real property values may hold, but more likely they won't. Just my opinion, but has everyone else forgotten the fall of 2008? History may not repeat itself exactly, but are we less in debt than we were last year? Has unemployment improved? Will taxes go down? All answers point - NO.
Revisiting old favorites. Waiting for the government to spook the market again before halloween.

Paying out dividends much higher than earnings in the face of a giant debt.

You cant fool me Macerich Company.

A GOOD SHOPPING MALLS COMPANY

MAC has an illiquid balance sheet and a too high valuation compared to its sales potential. Its profitability is decreasing. It distributes an unsustainable dividend.

The Macerich Comanpany (MAC) has the worst management!!! They are not managing their malls at all. Retailers are leaving their malls by the handfuls. Too much big box competition.

anyone gone shopping lately?

its own good malls

LOVE IT

any day now...

lots of room to move up. strong dividend. heebner pick

Last quarter results show rents received of 50 million and interest on debt of 70 million. Highly leveraged... it's going to zero.

Foolish. SG

Snowball's chance in hell of not going to zero eventually. Very simple -- revenues will keep shrinking and they won't be able to pay the interest on their debt. BK

Retail is extremely overbuilt, and consumer spending won't reach prior peak levels for years. Even healthy retailers will begin to curb expansion / close stores during 2009 / 2010

Will eventually have to declare BK. Just riding this one down to zero.

Re-short