MBIA, Inc. (NYSE:MBI)

I am not sure if Aurelius Capital's insinuations of fraud and insolvency are true, but the fact is that their accusations and lawsuit have become very publicized. This fact makes me nervous for MBIA's stock shorter term. I would anticipate a significant decline in stock price given the negative press, regardless of whether the rumors are true or not. Again, I want to make sure I reiterate that I am not stating that the Aurelius position is either true or false - I do not have enough information to fully form an opinion.

I have no position in MBIA nor do I plan to open one.

Last year Bruce Berkowitz said that if he could only pick one stock as a long term investment, it would be MBIA. That's a good enough recommendation for me.

short squeeze zh

Toasted.

Financials beaten down.

Channel Breakout -Target 12.

div and growth on a 1star insurance player

Bruce Berkowitz

MBIA has a number of potential catalysts, including completing the transformation of its public insurance subsidiary and litigation outstanding with a number of financial services firms.

I am leveraging off the legal analysis performed by Bruce Berkowitz/Sabretooth Capital as well as recent insider buying by the CEO and COO.

The dirty secrets buried within the complexity of the derivatives products that trashed this company is yet to be well understood, and the belief is that it will unfold slowly rather than quickly, each new bit of information knocking this potential winner back into losing territory.

dcquatlanta haiku

Too Big To Fail Banks

Lied in their loan documents

Loans will be sent back

Undervalued

MBIA has strong numbers but th efuture of their product is questionable

Their earnings are tied to businesses and banks, both of which are doing pretty well on the earnings front, unlike PMI, MTG or RDN. If they continue to watch costs and keep earnings growing, this could be the short squeeze of the century. 13% or 20.08 million shares short(although declining over last several mnths). I also like the 2.62 BILLION in shareholder equity.

Strong momentum as MBI settles claims in their favor. Longerterm uncertain about Muni insurance industry.

long MBI / short HRB

got pumped up based on euphoria. will settle down, they can't keep up with stellar earnings in this economy. reality will set in soon.

long term out look

I was impressed by Bruce Berkowitz's investment in MBIA and in AIG. Yes, huge risk involved in both (especially AIG with the Federal government in the picture). However, these are situations in which there is much inherent value if the financial pitfalls can be negotiated. Downside, obviously, is that either or both become worthless. Upside, equally obviously, is that either or both turn into 10 baggers, much like Peter Lynch's investment in Chrysler way back when. Accordingly, I have placed a small amount of risk money in my personal portfolio in both stocks, and have made the pick here as well.