Methanex Corp (USA) (NASDAQ:MEOH)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

The Company is a producer, marketer and supplier of methanol to the international markets of North America, Asia Pacific and Europe as well as Latin America.

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Member Avatar Owley1 (< 20) Submitted: 8/5/2013 11:24:15 AM : Outperform Start Price: $47.52 MEOH Score: +23.95

govt infusions

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Member Avatar dvdsl15 (89.98) Submitted: 5/3/2012 1:23:50 AM : Outperform Start Price: $33.94 MEOH Score: +54.15

high volume

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Member Avatar jhuangwithnmr (86.70) Submitted: 1/20/2011 1:50:02 PM : Outperform Start Price: $27.71 MEOH Score: +83.81

Barron's Roundtable 2011 - Scott Black's pick

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Member Avatar barrons2010 (37.27) Submitted: 1/16/2011 4:10:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $27.78 MEOH Score: +84.80

Scott Black. Enterprise value was $413 a ton in early december. Replacement cost is $700 a ton, so the stock is selling at a huge discount.

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Member Avatar JesusIsComing (38.25) Submitted: 4/30/2009 5:40:10 AM : Outperform Start Price: $10.11 MEOH Score: +423.06

yes sir. Capital and Crisis pick. Lets see how she goes.

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Member Avatar Seeley2620 (80.25) Submitted: 4/4/2009 10:26:15 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.87 MEOH Score: +702.08

P.A.Y.D.

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Member Avatar saaf569 (84.67) Submitted: 3/20/2009 9:07:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.63 MEOH Score: +734.34

Current Price vs 52 wk high 21%

ROE vs Industry 336%

ROE vs 5yr 108%

ROI vs Industry 111%

ROA vs Industry 113%

P/E vs Industry 24%

P/CF vs Industry 17%

Debt/Equity vs Industry 62%

Net Profit Margin vs Industry 212%

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Member Avatar notzia (73.20) Submitted: 2/11/2009 12:20:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.62 MEOH Score: +752.15

MEOH is a supplier of methanol to most major international markets. In 2007 its total sales represented about 17% of the global demand.

I am suspicious that MEOH essentially trades as a commodity. Using monthly numbers, I correlated MEOH’s beginning of the month stock price with the monthly contract price per gallon of methanol since May 2001; that correlation was .83. The contract price per gallon in February 2009 is nearly the same it was in 2001 (70¢ vs. 77¢). The high for methanol was $2.50 in Dec/Jan a year ago. There is still some downside risk, but I think it will be short-lived and could provide the opportunity to add to my position.

Based on the fundamentals, MEOH is a solid buy. As I write this, the price is $7.14, the P/E is 1.9, the yield is 8.4% and the book value is $13.96 (nearly twice the price, and the intangibles are nil). Since 2000, the EPS has grown 340%, which translates into a compounded annually 24% growth rate. The ROE has exceeded 15% for the past four years, and exceeded 25% the last two. The company has had positive free cash flow since 2000.

I look at three indicators of fiscal soundness: the Altman Z is at 3.46, anything above 3 indicates that there is little risk of bankruptcy; the Piotroski F is at 6, short of the goal of 8 or 9, though well above the dangerous 2 or below; and the Sloan accrual is at -.23, -5 or lower is the goal, but anything negative is still regarded as a good sign.

I look at four valuation estimates. The two I usually give the greatest weight are very close. My Discounted Cash Flow estimated share value is $42.13 which gives me a margin of safety (MOS) of 83%. My estimate based on earning growth (discounted to reflect a desire of at least 15% annual growth) was $42.97 which also gives an 83% MOS. My estimate based on sustainable growth (discounted to reflect a desired 15% annual growth) was $13.85 and only a 48% MOS. The fourth method is based on Graham intrinsic value, and that estimate was $142.80 with a 95% MOS. All four methods indicate that MEOH is severely undervalued.

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Member Avatar srk85 (< 20) Submitted: 11/25/2008 5:19:21 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.78 MEOH Score: +601.63

Low valuation, huge growth prospects. Dividend is also pretty high.

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Member Avatar GLASSMAN47 (98.54) Submitted: 10/19/2008 8:45:48 AM : Outperform Start Price: $11.52 MEOH Score: +357.13

Near 52 week low

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Member Avatar JMfrGeleen (< 20) Submitted: 6/29/2008 3:42:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $24.95 MEOH Score: +109.95

Price target $ 38 juli 2009

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Member Avatar NoTouch5Yr (99.18) Submitted: 5/22/2008 5:57:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $24.39 MEOH Score: +122.74

As with all my picks: A very attractive P/E, excellent EPS growth rate and high five year growth prospects.

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Member Avatar Woofbite (62.13) Submitted: 5/13/2008 2:48:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $22.78 MEOH Score: +142.93

Good Dividend...which increased. A buyback program and a low P/E. Doesn't seem to catch anyones interest...but when the company hits the radar screens I think the fuse could be ignited.

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Member Avatar rabidtigerfan (< 20) Submitted: 5/12/2008 12:31:58 AM : Outperform Start Price: $23.10 MEOH Score: +137.82

good management, 17% of world market?methanol up. volatile short term maybe. outperform sector long term.

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Member Avatar dothedow (28.79) Submitted: 5/6/2008 4:01:50 PM : Underperform Start Price: $23.24 MEOH Score: -138.94

Today's highest gainer is next week's biggest loser

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Member Avatar klemenv (99.74) Submitted: 3/30/2008 12:50:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $22.14 MEOH Score: +141.34

Fundamentals. Price of Methanol is high. Management is good. Company is generating cash. Reducing count of shares.

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Member Avatar JackMcKay (60.17) Submitted: 3/7/2008 8:35:22 PM : Outperform Start Price: $24.66 MEOH Score: +108.84

Full Methanex Analysis:
http://solidstocks.blogspot.com/2008/03/methanex-turns-methanol-into-cash.htm

Excerpt: "Methanex has a trailing operating cash flow multiple under 6 and a trailing free cash flow multiple under 7 when excluding Egypt costs... Methanex is a buy for investors focused on long-term share price appreciation because of its strong fundamentals and cash flow generation ability."

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Member Avatar rv6fool (< 20) Submitted: 11/28/2007 4:44:43 PM : Underperform Start Price: $23.83 MEOH Score: -135.05

No moat ... and at risk to competitors with more secure gas supply (at lower prices). Huge capacity additions coming in the middle east.

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Member Avatar zacprince (54.10) Submitted: 10/23/2007 12:44:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $22.85 MEOH Score: +150.65

recommended from a friend(burney- works for a financial company) on earnings tommorow

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Member Avatar Maax (74.66) Submitted: 9/17/2007 1:35:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $17.71 MEOH Score: +230.11

A value pick. Great company, although methanol is a cyclical business. Excellent financials, solid free cash flow.

Good dividend (and growing). Company is buying back shares at a good clip, every year.

Gas input should resume in Chile and the problem will be fixed in a year or two (hopefuly).

At the current price, MEOH is good bet for the long term.

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