Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH)
A multi-state managed care organization that arranges for the delivery of health care services to persons eligible to receive health care benefits through government-sponsored programs for low-income families and individuals.
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"Medicaid insurer Molina Healthcare has suspended its full-year earnings guidance while it sorts out problems in new Texas markets where costs are topping revenue." Not a good sign . . .
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The loss of Ohio's contract -- even absent the potential for a similar outcome in New Mexico this year -- means MOH's revenues will sink starting in 2013. It may bounce back from this debacle, but longer term this seems like dead money.
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They are strong producers
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good company
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Long Term outperform.
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Low Price with High Professional Opinion
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This met a high level screen to indicate a buy and strong outperform against its peers (other tickers in its industry). My 1st version of this spreadsheet devles deep into the company's balnace sheet and recent income statements, combined with other relevant price data for the company including insider/institutional holdings, short interest, debt levels, etc.
Testing capabilities of this 1st version of my automated, valuation spreadhseet matched with my personal criteria and see how it holds up.
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Cash flush
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Takeover target.....
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With Obama in office government sponsored health care is set for growth, Bush did everything in his power to veto expansion of govt health care contributing to this stocks current discount. I expect that we will see a reversal of this trend once the details of Obama's health care initiatives are finalized by the end of this year. I'll hold onto this winner until it reaches $40 at least.
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Nothing too detailed to share. Like the space; like the ownership and "family business" nature of mgmt (though in some cases I would mark it a serious black mark on an investment). Concerned about the regulatory environment and the potential impact of national politics which could cut either way.
Disclosure: No real money position, but on my list for long position.
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MOH's business only gets better as more people join the Medicaid rolls and as Obama reforms health care. This company has a lot of upside, and with the price anyplace below 25, there's very little downside.
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health care
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babyboomers are coming
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Molina's net income for year ending 12/2007 increased $0.43 per diluted share over year ending 12/06.
The expansion into Missouri should help Molina's revenue to grow.
It's fore casted that earnings per share in 2008 will range in the $2.25 to $2.45 amounts.
For a mid-size health management company, buying MOH in the low 30's is a deal.
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This is a play on a Democrat win in 2008. Bush kept vetoing legislation to expand SCHIP, a gap coverage program for health insurance of children. A Dem president and Congress will likely expand it significantly.
McCain as Prez might veto again, since he spoke/voted against it, but then who knows with McCain anyway (and I don't see him winning).
Molina is a big player in the SCHIP programs
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Bet on Healthcare as babyboomers reach retirement. . From FY2003 thorugh FY2005 revenues up 107%. First 3Q's of 2006 all have increasing revenue. Continued growth should see this stock make significant moves.
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Molina Healthcare is a multi-state managed care organization that arranges for the delivery of health care services to persons eligible to receive health care benefits through government-sponsored programs for low-income families and individuals, such as Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). The company also operates 21 primary care clinics in California, while managing health plans in six other states. During the year ended December, 2006 nearly 1 million members were enrolled in its health plans.
Managed healthcare enrollment as of year-end 2006 was nearly 210 million, with the commercial sector accounting for 86% of members, Medicare 3%, and Medicaid 11%. As the U.S. population is aging rapidly; 78 million baby boomers will turn 65 by the end of 2010, creating a barrage of legacy costs in the form of obligations for Medicare and Medicaid. Another fundamental problem is that the ratio of workers paying Medicare taxes to retirees drawing benefits is shrinking at the same time when the price of managed healthcare services is increasing. Molina also comes under the shadow of this problem while having to increase memberships, provide service in an increasing cost environment and presence of strong competitors such as Well Point and UnitedHealth.
For the nine months ended September 2006, the company's revenues increased 18.1% reflecting higher premium revenues due to new membership along with the start-up of Indiana and Ohio health maintenance organizations (HMOs) in December 2005. However, higher medical costs in these start-up plans are expected as it would take time to transition these new populations into managed care. Additionally, the Texas HMO which has recently taken-off in September 2006 would find it difficult to gain market share in the near term, coupled with an anticipation of additional capital infusion in the venture.
The company has also been witnessing membership headwinds in California and Michigan due to operational inefficiencies, which have to be taken care of, in line to remain as a strong contender in the Managed Care industry.
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