Monsanto Company (MON)

down market after bear market rally - commodities will suffer most.

As the purpose of this portfolio is to track the performance of good vs. evil companies, I can think of no better company to serve as the inagural "evil" pick than Monsanto.

Evil elements:
-Toxic chemical producer & disperser
-Invasive, virulent product
-Sues small farmers for saving their own GMO-infected seeds
-Promotes genetically identical monocultures, leaving our food supply vulnerable to disease & famine
-Adds toxins & unproven, unnatural GMO ingredients into our food supply
-Lobbies & litigates heavily to keep their misdeeds quiet

head and shoulders formed. if it drops below $78 we could see sub 70 very soon after

The growth of Monsanto, a large corporation which provides agricultural products globally, could be severely curtailed by long emerging and restructuring trends in global social and economic development and international food policies. Here, I will address only the most immediate of these concerns that will halt Monsanto’s growth over the next 2 – 5 years. On May 19, 2009, the American Academy of Environmental Medicine’s (“AAEM”) released a public statement calling for an immediate moratorium on genetically manipulated (“GMO”) Foods.

As I understand it, the Academy is extremely worried that genetically manipulated foods pose a risk to human health. The call for the moratorium may be intended to carefully examine severity and extent of the risk of GMO’s to human health. The areas of health purportedly at risk include:
“Areas of toxicology, allergy and immune function, reproductive health, and metabolic, physiologic and genetic health.”

The American Academy is asking for the following actions:

1. A moratorium on GMO food to facilitate property testing for health, safety and to ensure appropriate identification of the affected foods.
2. Public education on the effects on human health for consumption of GMO foods
3. Time to scientifically examine the effects of GMO foods in the treatment of certain illness affecting the human population
4. Further study of GMO Foods on human health

What have you heard about this issue and its implications for companies such as Monsanto?

Monsanto is trying to "hold the line on pricing" in an effort to preserve their margins during this ression. Food prices are falling, this stratagy will cost the company profits and marketshare.

Farmers are going to have no choice but to tighten the belt this growing season and cheaper seed will be on their menu. The real fear here is Monsanto is opening the door for other competitors makeing them stronger and leading to even lower margins for many years to come due to the more competitive environment.

Ag momentum slowing and overall investor sentiment is changing direction. I have seen a good share of top name funds liquidate their positions on this stock (this didn't help the price), but more importantly Hugh Grant (CEO) has liquidated millions of dollars of shares in his own company recently sending an even bleaker message. I am severly in the house of pain on this one, but have to accept it's direction- DOWN!

The technicals on this stock are not looking very good of late. There are some bearish divergences on the Stochastics and the RSI if you look at a 3 month chart. There are other bearish technicals such as the 30 Day Exponential Moving Average crossing above the 10 Day Simple Moving Average. I won't bore you with the rest.

Fundamentally: I find their genetically engineered corn that cannot reproduce absolutely reprehensible!!! I am a self taught master gardener and I am astounded that some of their products are allowed in the market place. I'm no radical tree hugger nor are my associates, and if we find it reprehensible, then long term I'd have to say that I'm bearish on this company.

Sincerely,

WiredMotley

Overprice company for a bunch of seeds.

AGRICULTURE STOCKS AT A HIGH AND RISING

Don't get me wrong, Monsanto is an extremely strong and profitable corporation. My concern is that it has become overvalued as it's share price has hit the stratosphere. I'm also curious if the recent drops in wheat futures and other agricultural futures prices will be reflected in MON's performance.

Over the next two weeks I expect Monsanto to under perform the market

alright hes my new thesis...an interesting one..probably will be wrong but who knows: agriculture will be down significantly this week due to the federal reserve addressing inflation at the next meeting. Also they must address the notion of the flagging dollar...going with my contrarian guts. Going against the crowd here so i might be wrong big time.

PE=50. Commodity bubble bust.

A great way to aid in tha destruction of our environment is to support these monsters. Back in 1987, the first genetically modified organism (GMO) to be released into the environment was Pseudomonas Syringea. This tiny bacterium was responsible for frost formation on strawberry plants. Well these bright scientists produced an ice-minus version that did not induce ice formation thereby preventing frost and extending the growing season for strawberry plants. Guess what? Now in 2008 the very same bacteria that causes frost by attracting water molecules turns out to be the main engine of condensation in clouds throughut the planet as opposed to dust particles as had been previously assumed by our idiot atmospheric scientists.. Can you say MAN MADE DROUGHT ? We have all this mutant pseudomonas syringea loose counteracting condensation. This stuff LIVES in the atmosphere. Check it out if you don't believe me. Hey, you can always invest in corporations that make condensers.

currently showing slowing volume and stock increases

Overpriced and going down with the ship. It'll be back but I wouldn't touch it at this price.

Why Not

You smell that? Do you smell that? Manure, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of manure in the morning. You know, one time we had a hill sprayed, for twelve hours. When it was all over I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' dink pesky insects. The smell, you know that manure smell, the whole hill. Smelled like...victory. Someday this Agribusiness run up is gonna end....

In my real portfolio, I'm still long for the long haul, BUT, 65 p/e ratio currently. This stock is expensive right now. It should correct then i can add to my position at cheaper price.