Move, Inc. (NASDAQ:MOVE)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

The Company has created an online service that enables consumers to find real estate listings and other content related to residential real estate, moving and relocation.

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Member Avatar rknapton (< 20) Submitted: 8/22/2013 4:35:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $14.83 MOVE Score: +22.99

Long. Marginal buy… Pricey on a P/E basis. Revenues up 16% last quarter. Their move.com and realtor.com websites are trending up on Alexa though and as housing makes a comeback this could do well.

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Member Avatar pregu (26.26) Submitted: 3/2/2013 8:46:08 AM : Underperform Start Price: $9.66 MOVE Score: -86.92

high p/e. although overall housing market will improve, everyone i know uses (and loves) zillow.

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Member Avatar TMFJLo (91.25) Submitted: 8/23/2012 4:34:59 PM : Underperform Start Price: $7.81 MOVE Score: -128.89

Here's my bearish take: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/08/23/3-real-estate-stocks-fighting-for-6-billion.aspx

...and the text outlining my theory on competition between Zillow, Trulia, and Move:

Last Friday, competition among real estate tech companies heated up. Trulia filed for a $75 million IPO, a sum that could give this website the funding it needs to take on market leader Zillow (Nasdaq: Z ) and pound more traditional companies into dust. Trulia's filing allows investors a never-before-seen look into its fundamentals. Let's see whether this company's got what it takes to kill the competition.

Online real estate 101
If you've never heard of Zillow, Trulia, or Move, you're missing out on an emerging sector that could run the real estate market in the next five years. These companies use the Internet as a platform to connect buyers (home buyers or renters) with sellers (home sellers, landlords, or real estate agents) and lenders (banks and mortgage lenders). The company provides each group with all the information they need to make the best possible business transaction, and then provides them with a simple process for making that transaction a reality. For a visual explanation, check out this video.

The numbers that matter
Image is everything, and Trulia's website visits send mixed messages. Although Trulia's unique visitors have tripled in the past three years, Zillow has grown slightly faster and now enjoys almost 10 million more website visits per month than Trulia. Move's (Nasdaq: MOVE ) Realtor.com growth looks near horizontal at 28%, compared with Trulia's 69% traffic increase and Zillow's 76% jump.

Given what we know about these companies' website visits, their sales growth should come as no surprise. Zillow and Trulia have doubled sales each year for the past three years, but the laws of compounding multiples have Zillow ahead by $20 million in 2011. Although Move has a massive monetary head start on these two startups, it's headed in the opposite direction with falling sales every year.

The budget line that most impressed me in Trulia's financials was R&D spending. Zillow spent 44% of its revenue on R&D in 2009, but only 18% this past year. Move has consistently tucked away about 15% of its sales into R&D. Trulia, on the other hand, is still pouring funding into R&D and outspent Zillow by $4 million in 2011.

Source: Author, data from Trulia S-1, Zillow 10-K, Move 10-K.

Partner up!
The real estate advertising business is estimated to be valued at $6 billion, and it's unlikely that any one corporation will beat out the rest without some help from outside sources.

In February 2011, Zillow teamed up with Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO ) to provide real estate listings through Yahoo! Homes. In addition, Zillow now enjoys exclusive rights to sell real estate agent advertising through Yahoo! Real Estate. Having sealed up a seller deal, Zillow partnered with AOL (NYSE: AOL ) in October 2011 to expand its lender visibility. Zillow's "Mortgage Marketplace" rates are now displayed on both AOL Real Estate and AOL-owned DailyFinance.

Move's claim to fame is its title as the "official website of the National Association of Realtors." Of course, nobility doesn't always guarantee success (just ask King Louis XVI), so Move is hedging its bets with joint ventures intended to enhance its mortgage and homebuilder services.

For now, Trulia seems to be going solo. Instead of partnering with any larger organizations, the company is trying its hand at grassroots marketing through a dozen or so blogs covering everything from celebrity homes to real estate agent advice columns.

My take
These three players are currently the three musketeers of online real estate, but this lucrative sector will undoubtedly see more competition as it continues to grow. Google (Nasdaq: GOOG ) left the sector in February 2011 because of "the proliferation of excellent property-search tools on real estate websites," but I wouldn't be surprised if it came back swinging in the next few years.

I don't see Move as a threat unless it gets serious about makings its larger budget count for something. Trulia's smaller than Zillow, but it's got teeth. It's stepped up its R&D to take back some of Zillow's market share and if it can consistently increase site traffic at a faster rate, it stands to come out ahead. Otherwise, Trulia's piece of the pie will continue to shrink thanks to Zillow's ever-growing network effect.

When Trulia has its IPO, I won't be buying, but I'll be watching. I've made an "underperform" CapsCall for Move and an "outperform" CapsCall for Zillow on my Motley Fool Caps page, but I'm undecided on Trulia's ultimate success or failure.

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Member Avatar el0dia (< 20) Submitted: 12/3/2009 9:19:58 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.56 MOVE Score: +142.96

The market is poised to rebound. Housing is a necessity and should return in strong fashion in 2010.

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Member Avatar istilldontcare (96.54) Submitted: 10/16/2008 1:35:06 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.72 MOVE Score: +90.86

1 Star rating w/ P/E Ratio of 46.50 following a significant drop in market (S&P @ 907). Price above 52 wk low w/ a range of 1.51-3.47. Currently above the SPY by about 10%. Hold till price reaches about $3.00 and re-evaluate. Most likely picked this stock wrong but trying to rate at a low point for long term gains.

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Member Avatar johnfuller48104 (< 20) Submitted: 5/11/2008 8:34:47 PM : Outperform Start Price: $12.80 MOVE Score: +16.99

Having a penchant for secular plays, I think all things internet related have a built in tailwind, and are therefore desireable. That's not to say there aren't lots of other considerations, but from a secular perspective, internet related is a positive. When I then go to what businesses are tailor made for the internet, my first reaction is Hotels (you actually get to see what you are renting), my next choice would be real estate. The process can be so time consuming, even if the move is local, let alone a long distant move. With todays virtual tours, loads of pictures and incredible databases, the process of buying a house is so much better. MOVE is the indisputable leader and their exclusive arrangement with the NAR (National Association of Realtors) is like a free get out of jail card. Housing, real estate, yeeech..... right! Well, there certainly are lots of homes on the market, and everybody wants to see how their house price is holding up, so for a business model that is increasingly based on attracting eyeballs these times aren't as bad as you might think. To be sure MOVE has had its share of false starts, and in these troubled times it wouldn't be mistaken for a well oiled machine, but a company with a distinct advantage, in a market with tailwinds, in a real estate space that is ideal for the nets strengths, can't be ignored. All things considered, if you ask me, this story has legs.

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Member Avatar swatcityusa (65.92) Submitted: 1/26/2008 12:34:45 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.60 MOVE Score: +89.41

Stock has been beaten down along with all housing related stocks. Lots of cash, no debt.

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Member Avatar FoolSteen (< 20) Submitted: 1/23/2008 10:57:30 AM : Outperform Start Price: $7.40 MOVE Score: +124.29

Money men will bay the cheap land making Move Inc a good investment.

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Member Avatar EdBurkeBlog (< 20) Submitted: 1/10/2008 9:44:52 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.84 MOVE Score: +89.70

Elevation Partners has invested in this company

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Member Avatar belmer2 (< 20) Submitted: 7/11/2007 1:36:24 PM : Outperform Start Price: $16.04 MOVE Score: -5.95

more people are looking to the internet for information, this will offset losses from other income.

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Member Avatar skc0001 (< 20) Submitted: 6/18/2007 3:10:07 AM : Outperform Start Price: $17.80 MOVE Score: -17.40

Proposed by Good People

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Member Avatar xdogg (28.47) Submitted: 5/2/2007 1:04:58 PM : Underperform Start Price: $16.44 MOVE Score: +11.63

There is just no need for their services. Too many other websites offering the same thing.

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Member Avatar Lifeguru (65.77) Submitted: 4/26/2007 7:42:14 PM : Underperform Start Price: $19.48 MOVE Score: +32.00

junk

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Member Avatar csws (< 20) Submitted: 4/10/2007 5:58:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $19.60 MOVE Score: -36.76

Very simple, Move has executed above expectations for almost 8 quarters now. They have called for 15 - 20% growth in 2007 and there is no reason to doubt it.

In a slowing real estate market companies like Move actually do better than in a hot market where realtors may not even need to advertise Homes as they sell within days. And it is hard to convince a Realtor that they need technology solutions when they are making 300,000 grand a year with only their cell phone.

In a down market the agents and brokers have the same bills but now need to get serious about ad spend and technology solutions to increase their market share.

As the number one player in their space Move is going to seriously prosper at this point and time. Only the uneducated do not understand the true fundamentals of the Real Estate industry will call this the wrong way.

I cannot wait until the Q1 2007 earnings announcement next month. They are going to surprise a lot of unstudied investors and analysts.

Of note I am personally disappointed by the serious lack of understaning and/or research surrounding the business fundamentals of the Real Estate industry. Analysts are making backwards calls based on broad macro economics of the business without understand the micro economics of it. Shameful.

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Member Avatar smuf (< 20) Submitted: 2/27/2007 11:32:39 AM : Outperform Start Price: $24.52 MOVE Score: -60.23

It's almost spring 2007, housing is wallowing on the bottom now and will either lead us into a resession or will rebound - I think it will rebound. Even if people are not looking to buy, they will be looking to rent and MOVE has the tools for both, and then some. Advertisers are looking for places to put their big dollars - why not this first class set of websites?

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Member Avatar SteadySaber (67.82) Submitted: 2/10/2007 2:21:55 PM : Underperform Start Price: $25.92 MOVE Score: +64.21

lemon

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Member Avatar LTcris (25.77) Submitted: 1/30/2007 8:36:10 PM : Outperform Start Price: $25.08 MOVE Score: -62.85

Solid web offering with crazy growth in Real Estate. More people are turning to the web to research properties.

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Member Avatar NetscribeRetail (90.96) Submitted: 1/22/2007 7:05:48 AM : Underperform Start Price: $24.00 MOVE Score: +58.65

Move Inc., formerly Homestore, Inc., has created an Online Real Estate service that enables consumers to find real estate listings and other relevant content through websites like REALTOR.com, HomeBuilder.com, Rentnet.com, SeniorHousingNettm.com and Homestore.com, generating nearly 75% of revenues. Move-Related Services segment, managing to garner up the balance 25% revenues, provides advertising products and lead generation tools, including display, directory products, price quote tools, and content sponsorships on its websites.
The US real estate market has seen the worst in 2006. However, the current slowdown could be prolonged if the interest rates and unemployment levels continue to remain at the same levels, which would hit residential property sales in the first place. Although the number of building licenses granted has increased, builders have been slashing prices and production as they are attempting to get rid of the large backlog of unsold homes. Revenues in this business are also impacted by the number of household moves each year. Due to weather and school calendars, a disproportionate percentage of moves take place in the second and third calendar quarters than in the first and fourth quarters.
Looking at the trend of net loss for the past seven consecutive years, Move seems to be failing to generate satisfactory sales to compensate the operating expenses. Although the losses have reduced in the past two years, the company does not seem to be seeing the daylight in the near future.
Revenues for the quarter ended September 2006 increased 10%, backed by an increase in earnings from the real estate website segment. However, operating loss still exist, reflecting no reduction in personnel costs, material and shipping costs, and higher development costs. Backed by weak fundamentals, an unfocussed approach towards reducing costs and failure to generate positive cash flows makes Move a poor investment proposition.

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Member Avatar foggsy (< 20) Submitted: 11/29/2006 10:43:38 AM : Outperform Start Price: $21.48 MOVE Score: -51.26

right space right time

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Member Avatar MayberryMac (< 20) Submitted: 11/21/2006 3:01:40 PM : Outperform Start Price: $21.56 MOVE Score: -51.24

In theory, should do MUCH better in down RE market. In a soft RE market, on-line vendors like MOVE cost less than newspaper ads and deliver measurable results. However, intertia/habit of RE agents make on-line vehicles a tough sell, especially when trying to impress sellers desparate to sell. MOVE could/should do a better job of changing herd mentality, selling measurable performance vs. CYA of newspaper ads. If they keep their marketing expenses down, I think they will show impressive results contrary to conventional wisdom.

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