Move, Inc. (NASDAQ:MOVE)

Industry momentum.

The market is poised to rebound. Housing is a necessity and should return in strong fashion in 2010.

1 Star rating w/ P/E Ratio of 46.50 following a significant drop in market (S&P @ 907). Price above 52 wk low w/ a range of 1.51-3.47. Currently above the SPY by about 10%. Hold till price reaches about $3.00 and re-evaluate. Most likely picked this stock wrong but trying to rate at a low point for long term gains.

Having a penchant for secular plays, I think all things internet related have a built in tailwind, and are therefore desireable. That's not to say there aren't lots of other considerations, but from a secular perspective, internet related is a positive. When I then go to what businesses are tailor made for the internet, my first reaction is Hotels (you actually get to see what you are renting), my next choice would be real estate. The process can be so time consuming, even if the move is local, let alone a long distant move. With todays virtual tours, loads of pictures and incredible databases, the process of buying a house is so much better. MOVE is the indisputable leader and their exclusive arrangement with the NAR (National Association of Realtors) is like a free get out of jail card. Housing, real estate, yeeech..... right! Well, there certainly are lots of homes on the market, and everybody wants to see how their house price is holding up, so for a business model that is increasingly based on attracting eyeballs these times aren't as bad as you might think. To be sure MOVE has had its share of false starts, and in these troubled times it wouldn't be mistaken for a well oiled machine, but a company with a distinct advantage, in a market with tailwinds, in a real estate space that is ideal for the nets strengths, can't be ignored. All things considered, if you ask me, this story has legs.

Stock has been beaten down along with all housing related stocks. Lots of cash, no debt.

Money men will bay the cheap land making Move Inc a good investment.

Elevation Partners has invested in this company

more people are looking to the internet for information, this will offset losses from other income.

Proposed by Good People

Someday their house will become available and this is the outfit that's likely to tell them about it, welcome them to the neighborhood and more.

There is just no need for their services. Too many other websites offering the same thing.

junk

Very simple, Move has executed above expectations for almost 8 quarters now. They have called for 15 - 20% growth in 2007 and there is no reason to doubt it.

In a slowing real estate market companies like Move actually do better than in a hot market where realtors may not even need to advertise Homes as they sell within days. And it is hard to convince a Realtor that they need technology solutions when they are making 300,000 grand a year with only their cell phone.

In a down market the agents and brokers have the same bills but now need to get serious about ad spend and technology solutions to increase their market share.

As the number one player in their space Move is going to seriously prosper at this point and time. Only the uneducated do not understand the true fundamentals of the Real Estate industry will call this the wrong way.

I cannot wait until the Q1 2007 earnings announcement next month. They are going to surprise a lot of unstudied investors and analysts.

Of note I am personally disappointed by the serious lack of understaning and/or research surrounding the business fundamentals of the Real Estate industry. Analysts are making backwards calls based on broad macro economics of the business without understand the micro economics of it. Shameful.

It's almost spring 2007, housing is wallowing on the bottom now and will either lead us into a resession or will rebound - I think it will rebound. Even if people are not looking to buy, they will be looking to rent and MOVE has the tools for both, and then some. Advertisers are looking for places to put their big dollars - why not this first class set of websites?

lemon

Solid web offering with crazy growth in Real Estate. More people are turning to the web to research properties.

Move Inc., formerly Homestore, Inc., has created an Online Real Estate service that enables consumers to find real estate listings and other relevant content through websites like REALTOR.com, HomeBuilder.com, Rentnet.com, SeniorHousingNettm.com and Homestore.com, generating nearly 75% of revenues. Move-Related Services segment, managing to garner up the balance 25% revenues, provides advertising products and lead generation tools, including display, directory products, price quote tools, and content sponsorships on its websites.
The US real estate market has seen the worst in 2006. However, the current slowdown could be prolonged if the interest rates and unemployment levels continue to remain at the same levels, which would hit residential property sales in the first place. Although the number of building licenses granted has increased, builders have been slashing prices and production as they are attempting to get rid of the large backlog of unsold homes. Revenues in this business are also impacted by the number of household moves each year. Due to weather and school calendars, a disproportionate percentage of moves take place in the second and third calendar quarters than in the first and fourth quarters.
Looking at the trend of net loss for the past seven consecutive years, Move seems to be failing to generate satisfactory sales to compensate the operating expenses. Although the losses have reduced in the past two years, the company does not seem to be seeing the daylight in the near future.
Revenues for the quarter ended September 2006 increased 10%, backed by an increase in earnings from the real estate website segment. However, operating loss still exist, reflecting no reduction in personnel costs, material and shipping costs, and higher development costs. Backed by weak fundamentals, an unfocussed approach towards reducing costs and failure to generate positive cash flows makes Move a poor investment proposition.

right space right time

In theory, should do MUCH better in down RE market. In a soft RE market, on-line vendors like MOVE cost less than newspaper ads and deliver measurable results. However, intertia/habit of RE agents make on-line vehicles a tough sell, especially when trying to impress sellers desparate to sell. MOVE could/should do a better job of changing herd mentality, selling measurable performance vs. CYA of newspaper ads. If they keep their marketing expenses down, I think they will show impressive results contrary to conventional wisdom.