Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:MRH)
Through its operating subsidiary Montpelier Reinsurance Ltd. is a provider of global property and casualty reinsurance and insurance products.
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Paradox: quality stocks are reasonably priced while junk is outrageously expensive. Which would you rather hold for the next 5 years, MRH or AAPL? I think the choice is clear. Outperform.
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Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. (MRH) is a provider of global property and casualty reinsurance and insurance products. It's last ernings statement was a downward surprise. The company is not liked by sell-side analysts, several of whom have recently downgraded the stock. While the stock is up from when I first picked it, it has not kept up with the S&P. I am hoping that it will recover form its recent price drop, but I have been hurt by trying to catch falling knives before!
All of the following data is as of October 31st with the stock trading about 17¾. The 52-wk range is 21.03 (Feb) -- 15.06 (Aug), so the stock is relatively stable in price. The P/E is about 32 with the forward P/E estimated at about 7¾. 94% of the shares outstanding are owned by institutions. The stock is priced below book value.
Disclosure: I do not own stock in MRH and am only leaving the green thumb hoping to gain points.
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Great management, reasonable valuations, clean balance sheet. Disaster claims impossible to predict but considering the managements discipline to avoid contracts when pricing is not favorable this is likely to be a good pick for the long-haul.
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varp screen
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After several benign hurricane seasons, the market seems to be getting past its aversion to this stock which originated with their large underwriting losses from Hurricane Katrina. MRH seems on a run to return to more traditional reinsurance company valuation levels which could lead to a mid-$20's stock value (based on $22-23 current book value per share). After that, MRH has to show that it can continue a disciplined approach to pricing and, of course, can diversify its risk portfolio so another Katrina event doesn't happen. I believe they have the right people in place to succeed on all counts.
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Current Parameters
LT Debt-to-Equity Ratio
0.10 - 0.99
All-Star Outperform Picks
634.71 - 4777.00
Price-to-Book (TTM)
0.00 - 0.99
CAPS Rating
5 - 5 on 2010-12-02
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eru+5/drenan/B
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Re-positioning complete. Ready for run.
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Cheap and pays a dividend.
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Strong momentum. The winds and currents seem to be with them now.
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Bad storm season coming.
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Beat down too much
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Nice Return on Equity in recent financials, dividend and the P/E looks good.
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MRH instilled a lot of fear after the two big hurricanes and all that fear is still in the price. It trades below book and generates good cash every quarter. Hopefully management has learnt its lessons - if so, this one will do 2x-3x.
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Top of valuation and entirely too close to 52 wk high. If it dives instead of dips, I'll buy back in around 11-12. Til then it's a slippery slope from here.
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Great Company with very STRICT underwriting guidelines in regards to their Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Department. When it comes to investment income operations, and Hurricane property Modelling, they swim against the grain
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book value>stock price.
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cheap, p/e of 5, 3% dividend
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Why I like Montpelier Re:
1) No options. Stock based compensation is all RSUs, making for better alignment of interests with shareholders. Still far too few companies like this.
2) A bargain. Priced at under book. I expect price to exceed 1.5 x book after we get through this recession (depression?). Further, I expect book value to improve from here, probably even with confirmation of that later today.
3) Diversifying risk. I like the broadening of coverage types and geography. New London platform will take time to rev up, but should smooth out results over time.
4) Firming reinsurance prices. I hear reinsurance prices are on a firming trend in recent months. Makes sense with capital tight in the current economic environment.
5) Small and under-followed. Lets us small guys capitalize on our advantage of not needing consensus or volume (though volume seems to be here anyway).
Concerns:
1) Hurricanes and terrorism. These guys insure some nasty stuff.
2) CEO Harris. He's way too new. But, I like that the last CEO is staying on as Chairman for a bit.
3) Am I wrong about book value improvement?
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