Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK)

A bit of a rough ride lately with this stock, but perhaps its due to at least level out.

Good value, nice div while you wait for recovery.

Demographics of the world. We are an aging society both domestically and internationally.

Merck is a heavyweight in the healthcare sector, and I believe it will stay that way. In my opinion it is virtually recession/bull proof (for the most part) in that people are far more likely to cut their spending in retail and energy before they stop taking the medications that are keeping them alive. Long haul.

A 5-10 year increase of costs vs projected of (conservatively $100 Billion) does not seem conducive to beating the S&P)....

MERCK has SO many problems ahead of it – the tip of the iceberg is merely the Vioxx “settlement”. We have not seen anything yet – it is going to be a brutal 5 – 10 years for Merck, unless the market and or government is kind enough to put it out of its misery, break it into little pieces, have those pieces conform to true moral values. Cost/benefit of overall benefits and overall costs – fair enough if active warning is made…Cost/benefit of $ benefit to Merck versus NOT EVEN PROVIDING THE WARNINGS is just not moral, and the public, nor even the government will continue to “take it”…Merck has just gotten too aggressive and arrogant – it’s only potential salvation MAY be the US Supreme Court (Wyeth)….and even that may not save them…

Over the next 10 years, it is NOT HARD - conservatively - to project approximately $100 Billion in Merck Costs – from litigation of the continued products we hear about (and note the consistent patterns of (alleged) neglect, concealment, deceit, fraud… plus the major hits it will keep taking in the capital markets, including its bond ratings, ability to raise capital competitively, increasing tepid acceptance by consumers and physicians, increased questions from the physicians (i.e. – are you hiding anything this time….)…

By the way the "settlement" is not a done deal - if you are a Plaintiff visit

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/MerckSettlement/

Remember all those “willing” souls who think the deal is so great – we hear it all the time from the lawyers who will gain big time from (allegedly…) coercing their clients (…and what you don’t know would astonish and alarm you – your legal rights may be next…) – remember the saying “things are not always as they may seem…”….

Merck, with the DEAL as is, will still probably end up near $10B in total cost for this one product – that would eliminate the $3-4 Billion which it will make if the scoundrels get away with the “deal” as is… and it could get worse… a renegotiated "settlement" and there is financial analysis to show this could still cost Merck more than $20B; not renegotiating could cost an equal amount in increased capital costs over the next 10 years or so...

The scene will next be repeated with FOSAMAX – that is JUST starting – look up DEAD JAW and multiply it by a factor of 50x as similar issues impact other bones….Vioxx and FOSAMAX are 2 of what I refer to as (allegedly…) Merck’s VOODOO bone medications… both work (or not work…) by impacting the body’s natural process of healing (Vioxx) and/or regeneration (FOSAMAX)…there will be (and it will be recognized in the future, give it time…50,000+ bodies maimed (bone – spine) from these – likely many times more…wait until the word really gets out on this…

And more (alleged) shoddy products keep coming down Merck's well thought out production line of FUNDING LONG TERM LITIGATION WITH THE PROFITS OF SHORT TERM (ALLEGED) SHODDY PRODUCTS - I WON'T NAME THEM HERE – but we see them very often in the news – and they (allegedly) show patterns of neglect, deceit, fraud, concealment…- this is happening WITHIN and ACROSS product lines. Even Merck’s absolute arrogance will just not be tolerated by the courts and the legislature. WE ALL SEE THEM (the “feel good short term” products with the “long term litigation problems as the rats from the laboratories have been moved into the public domain – and it takes a few years for long term problems to show up – EVEN WHEN THERE WERE ADEQUATE SUSPICIONS AND SCIENCE TO BEING CONCERNED!!!, IN THE NEWS CONSTANTLY. I am more than convinced that Merck has developed not just an art, but a science of getting short term products with long term problems (which stumble past the statute of limitations….) and are working the other end of the issue (Mass TORT litigation – via “privatization” or so called “global settlements (sounds more benign that way, doesn’t it…).

Oh, by the way, who is going to pay for those broken bones and spines on disability and/or in nursing homes by the thousands and thousands – the public – let’s more than hope not…Merck – well, that may be expensive also….

If Merck is successful in moving the rats from the laboratories into the public domain - which the "settlement" in affect awards and which the MASS TORT REFORM litigation reform HAWKS are salivating for (the are agents of business – and hey, I AM PRO BUSINESS – not just of a business which finally penetrates the clouds and runs amuck and afoul of morality!

The “settlement” if it really runs the course of its ‘HANG IN THERE PARTNER – THIS IS THE WILD WEST – LIVE FREE OR DIE!), an uncertainty (cost of litigation, is simply moved over to the fixed costs of projecting life term profit contribution, and then it would be a fixed cost that would also be about 10-20% of what a fair amount would be).

But it is not so clear that Merck and PRIVATE SETTLEMENTS will have their ultimate goal really met - one of allowing reckless development, concealment, fraud, etc. - there is likely to be a hybrid approach - one which repudiates that a drug company cannot simply be reckless and then to brutally settle (the VIOXX terms are BRUTAL - look into the details, and you will agree...and the "average" victim is getting such a small pittance, one often not even covering the hospital costs which must be repaid,...and it gets worse (yet Merck/PSC has so nicely boxed in "willing (they are not - mostly) participants - and "boxed out" ways of continuing litigation...- which also then cause MUCH more to be virtually forced into may be referred as "legal purgatory hell"...

Merck will not get away with it in the magnitude it is planning on - but the REFORM Hawks will dampen things down - there will be a hybrid approach - and the costs of today will be cut in 1/2 (instead of 10%) - Merck, however will not be able to withstand that with their strategy having been based more upon the 10% "methodology"....and public opinion, NOW really waking up will abhor Merck. I also feel it is reasonable that Merck, just not willing to give up its WANTON ways, will be broken up by the market or the government - one can only hope so...

OH, I Have so, so much more to say - but it just would be too long for this, and is already too long...if you would like more detail...a bit or a lot - my email is

badbonehealing@hvc.rr.com

Dennis Harrison

MBA - BGS

Drugs need I say more? Good dividend also.

no innovation no new news

There is substantial trouble with earnings growth. With a weak pipeline that includes classes previously denied by the FDA and major patent losses in the coming years and recent bad news about two of their best selling drugs, i expect the cost cutting measures to be too little to compensate for a lack of top line growth. This is a company that develops contingency plans for a multi year timeline and I suspect the urgency surrounding the recent acceleration of cost cuting measures is a sure sign that management is fully aware of their future challenges. The top growing new diabetes drug will have a competitor later this year.

This stock will return 10-15% in the next twelve months.

Recession proof pharmaceutical

How can you go wrong?

Big pharma across the board.

New meds are on the horizon.

After major losses due to Zocor generic Merck has taken it's time coming out about whether Vytorin works any better than the less expensive generic Zocor, but amid possible delayed study results the proof may be in the pudding where Merck slashed the 2008 revenue forecast for Vytorin by 700 Million. Add this to the recent rejection of two different Merck drugs (a cholestorol med and an allergy combo) by the FDA and the future doesn't look so bright.

LEADING THE HEALTHCARE SECTION

Trying this stock as a Pharmaceutical

Stock looks good on surface. Rumers by Merck brother of friend in the company just had "S" eating grin when inv. at 36.85 no specifics but reasuring my move was sounder than I realized. First buy at market in maybe 8 yrs. "Grasshoper sometimes blind squirl find nut" this one on slow cook.

The drug company has been decreasing and there is a lack of opportunities for drugs unless they are for normal people. The weak economy will not hurt these companies.

Merk is a well established pharmaceutical mnfr. and some of their vaccines have no competition. The company is currently trading a few dollars above its 52 day low and they are having manufactucturing and recall issues with some of their vaccines currently. Once they get things back in gear you can expect this stock to hit atleast $60.