Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company and its subsidiaries currently operate in three business segments: Mountain, Lodging and Real Estate.

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Member Avatar ejlanders14 (< 20) Submitted: 1/24/2014 11:05:38 PM : Underperform Start Price: $69.98 MTN Score: -14.33

104.7 P/E....can you say "bloated".

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Member Avatar rolliti (< 20) Submitted: 1/21/2014 10:19:12 PM : Underperform Start Price: $71.97 MTN Score: -14.13

Just Unbelievable expensive

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Member Avatar moonlightsail (< 20) Submitted: 1/14/2014 3:57:24 PM : Outperform Start Price: $71.35 MTN Score: +14.72

recreational activities in all seasons in Vail, CO.

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Member Avatar stephenzi (34.30) Submitted: 1/14/2014 1:17:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $71.18 MTN Score: +14.84

Looking for ways to play Marijuana legalization in Colorado. My guess is that MTN will provide a reason for people to choose to go there to ski, or do other things of course. It just makes sense to me that MTN will benefit from this. Not sure how much long term, but for the next year, it makes sense, until other states start changing their laws too.

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Member Avatar gbaldwin61 (< 20) Submitted: 10/25/2013 1:43:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $71.06 MTN Score: +10.13

Becoming the dominant player in the global snow sport industry, and their summer business is only going to grow as people seek places to beat the heat.

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Member Avatar IsleGirl2010 (96.83) Submitted: 10/9/2013 12:34:23 PM : Outperform Start Price: $64.45 MTN Score: +15.85

Business season being expanded. Lots of new opportunities in eco tourism. They have enough scale to help with cost and have a huge barrier to entry.

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Member Avatar statsguy (86.88) Submitted: 6/11/2013 1:27:24 PM : Outperform Start Price: $59.74 MTN Score: +21.51

close to Denver, an area that loves the great outdoors and skiing

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Member Avatar eat251heart (< 20) Submitted: 5/31/2013 2:05:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $63.61 MTN Score: +17.77

People need a place to go for outdoor activities.

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Member Avatar Bobmoll36 (36.61) Submitted: 5/21/2013 11:35:38 AM : Outperform Start Price: $64.64 MTN Score: +16.78

long term play Solid in the snow; a comer in summer...and that will take time and effort.

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Member Avatar jpmj (69.47) Submitted: 5/19/2013 5:17:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $67.09 MTN Score: +13.25

Thanks David, My wife and I really enjoy our timeshares, and many are in the areas of Vail's resorts. This stock pick will be a delight to us, indeed. Vacation, winter and now the ok for year around fun, and dividends too. Sounds like a win/win!!!! GO TMF! Thanks, jpmj4847

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Member Avatar WillRodgersHomes (29.57) Submitted: 3/13/2013 3:58:03 PM : Underperform Start Price: $59.34 MTN Score: -20.32

Overvalued, highly seasonal company in both resorts and real estate.

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Member Avatar mikotian (99.88) Submitted: 1/28/2013 12:23:26 PM : Underperform Start Price: $51.19 MTN Score: -31.33

The valuation is huge... and it's not even that good of a business.

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Member Avatar William163264 (57.55) Submitted: 1/17/2013 1:53:48 PM : Underperform Start Price: $51.40 MTN Score: -36.58

I can't help it, I am a value investor. Valuation on this one is reaching 2008 highs, mediocre dividend for a company holding real estate, and sadly likely lots of retail sentiment on this stock by unsophisticated investors is driving the price this time of year. Good skiing, good resort, bad timing for this stock.

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Member Avatar Tak3natheFlood (38.42) Submitted: 11/13/2012 8:15:09 AM : Underperform Start Price: $50.91 MTN Score: -27.78

Climate change, a constrained consumer, and a low return business are significant challenges for this company.

I'm pulling for ski resorts long-term but the headwinds here are too strong.

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Member Avatar villageidiom (< 20) Submitted: 3/21/2012 4:25:43 PM : Outperform Start Price: $42.97 MTN Score: +61.40

Evaluating a screen. Feel free to ignore.

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Member Avatar DrRonPaul4Prez (55.51) Submitted: 2/22/2012 12:55:40 AM : Underperform Start Price: $38.92 MTN Score: -79.60

Still priced a little high; has some more to come down.

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Member Avatar ralree (< 20) Submitted: 10/3/2010 1:30:08 PM : Outperform Start Price: $36.65 MTN Score: +65.63

Big volume boost on Friday, positive move up. Should get to the 44 level.

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Member Avatar rknapton (< 20) Submitted: 11/30/2009 5:40:13 PM : Underperform Start Price: $37.13 MTN Score: -57.08

Overvalued ski-resort: MTN

I've never liked this stock, but now especially I think it is way over valued.

I live in Breckenridge, and think I have an edge on knowing what is happening out on the slopes because I go riding almost every day. Just from my own perspective (and I have no actual data on this) this years skier numbers are WAY WAY down from years past. I have 17 days on my pass already, and I have yet to have to deal with lift lines anywhere near what I've seen in the past. Previously, over the Thanksgiving holiday, lift lines have been disgusting as there have been so many people out there. Last year I even got off the gondola one day (from town to the base of the resort), took a picture of the lift line, and then left, because I didn't want to wait in that line to get on the lift. This year, the pay parking lot at the base of the gondola hasn't even been close to full from what I've seen. Based on this, I think Vail Resorts is likely to report both disappointing Q2 (Their fiscal year ends Sept. 30th) and full year results.

Valuation wise, it is trading at an absurd 29 times trailing earnings, 27 times forward (2011) estimates, and 49 times 2010 estimates (which as mentioned, I believe those estimates are too high, and likely to disappoint the street). What is messed up is, on top of those valuations, the company is more expensive yet because they have $492 million in debt and just $69 million in cash, on their $1.4 billion market cap.

As of now there is less snow than I think I've ever seen on the mountain for this time of year. We have had snow, but most of it has just evaporated away already in the sublimation process. Even today, the run directly under the lower part of the Beaver Run Peak 9 chairlift has yet to be opened, and in all just 14 of 155 runs are open (http://www.breckenridge.com/mountain/terrain-status.aspx). The weather has just been bright warm sunny day after bright warm sunny day. Perfect for the riding I like going out and doing, but just awful for building up hype to have vacationers plan trips for. I really would imagine that if right now people are planning a ski trip over Christmas,Breck just wouldn't be the place you'd be looking at if you are basing the decision on where it has recently been snowing. The same goes for 3 oftheir other 4 resorts (Vail, Keystone, Beaver Creek), since they are all relatively close geographically. I think all of these resorts may have some severe problems opening a lot of terrain by the winter break unless some huge snowfalls happen within the next three weeks. And even in that case, it may be too late as people could be planningtheir ski trips elsewhere right now.

Today I both shorted the stock and bought put options. If you want to go the options route, I think the April 2010 $35 puts are a bargain for $2.40 (remember each option contract is for 100 shares).

RK

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Member Avatar XMFTerp (98.02) Submitted: 11/18/2009 4:52:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $36.01 MTN Score: +63.80

Niche market, strong loyalty (increased season pass buyers last year in a severely depressed economy) and hell, the best damn terrain around.

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Member Avatar SectorSkillz (< 20) Submitted: 10/8/2009 3:21:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $33.29 MTN Score: +77.50

Most families who make a skip trip have made a yearly ski trip for a long time and most of the customer base pertains to people not as crunched by the recession.

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