Marvel Entertainment, Inc. (MVL)

This is an easy one.

DIS buy out.

S&P will continue dubious and speculative climb while value of merger already priced into MVL.

S&P will continue dubious and speculative climb while value of merger already priced into MVL.

Shareholders will get out after Disney buyout after taking their profits

I think that a lot of Marvel fans will be pissed by being owned by Disney and will dump the stock. If they wanted to own Disney, they'd have bought it, and this really puts a ceiling on what otherwise was a potential windfall. It will be "get out while you can" or wait for $30 plus 0.75 x Disney stock.

best wishes

Sorry, but superman (DC) can beatup spiderman (marvel).

Had a good run with Wolverine... but fundamentally, MVL has changed it prfitable business model (licensing IP) toriskier one (movie making), but have not yet proven management bench strength to manage this added risk.

Marvel will underperform through 2009. I don't see the entertainment industry doing exceptionally well as people try to cut back on expenses. As another user pointed out, there is a lot of big name films coming out this year from competitors as well.

Pipeline for 2009 is weak. Strong competition in genre in 2009 from Watchmen, Terminator, and Star Trek. Look for recovery in 2010.

This is a straight P/E short here. Marvel current P/E is just more than 14. Average prediction is for a dynamite final quarter of earnings, and 2008 Fiscal Year Earnings of $2.80 ish.

But look at fiscal 2009. The company and anaylsts are forcasting $1.30ish earnings. That's a forward P/E of 23+.

Add to that no new releases of big name movies based on the company's popular comic books.

So Marvel entertainment faces a double whammy. No "big" catalyst (i.e. movie), and a market in which more and more people are seeing company P/Es in whole as being too high.

My bet tis that the stock will start to fall near or shortly after Marvel issues 4th quarter earnings, and more information on guidance for 2009.

My estimate is that the stock will fall to somewhere between $17-23, and probably stay there until early 2010, when Marvel is set to have a big year movie wise.

If you wanted to play now, put LEAP options would probably be your best bet, but I'd probably wait until closer to earnings too see what certain tehcnicals show for momentum.

Not enough different story lines to exploit again and again....

Discretionary income will continue to disappear for the average consumer, leaving fewer and fewer dollars for the average Joe to go to the movies or buy that actionfigure for his kid.

This company's had a great run, but it seems overbought. Look at their future films on IMDB. Ant-Man? Nick Fury? Iron Fist? They're getting into their second-tier characters now, and it will get harder for them to maintain their string of blockbusters.

It's up from about 26 to 33 this year. Take the $. I think companies dependant on consumer spending are going to hurt before the end of the year.

Overbought at these levels, $34.95 at close. I don't think superhero movies are given moneymakers. The more characters they introduce in movies, the further diluted their franchise and credibility will be. Plus they're trading at a ridiculous multiple to book value, PEG, etc.

Don't drink the lemonade would be my montra for Marvel. Yes, they have had tremendous run ups with great action hero movies and gear.

Problem lies with when people go WHO??? when they run low on popular action heroes. I loved Iron Man but it is only doing okay....Let's watch the next action "hero?" movie hit the skids.

Buying all the stocks recommended by TMF reminds me of the Money magazine up and down cycles. On internet at least you get news a little faster than the 30-45 day old news that comes in a magazine.

They've run out of comics to turn into movies.

its doing well