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Myriad Genetics is focused on developing and marketing novel molecular diagnostic products.
Too high, too fast.
I have some shares.
I just have a feeling. This is going to 60 a share in 3 years. Amazing product line until the patents run out and then business will become competitive. Revs increasing setting up for the perfect storm on performance
Bought rival. Beat estimates.
Sold fundamentals. Why do doctors want to know your family history? To provide preventive guidance. The diagnostic tests this company provides quantify this information in a very specific way. Even though Medicare will no longer pay for these tests it in the younger patients not the elderly that are the target market. Affordable Care Act. In time the insurance companies will embrace this concept if it proves to cut cost of healthcare. The market over reacted to the court ruling. 47% of float shorted. Huge short squeeze on any good news.
I think the huge dip is an overreaction. I order 5 of these a month in my practice, and while there are others coming up with similar tests, there will be a lag time.
Low P/FCF as much as anything else.
Myriad Genetics, Inc. MYGN. Molecular diagnostic company. Interesting relatively newer niche field. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 21.57 twelve-trailing-months is quite attractive. No debt/equity going back to 2004 indicates strong financial health. Trailing price/earnings ratio of 14.0 is lowest historical P/E going back 5 years to 2008. Market cap of 1.99 Billion leaves room to grow and/or be acquired. Currently priced 24.77, trading at lower end of 52 week range of 22.20 - 38.27.
Free cash flow / and Owner Earnings are growing. Double digit management returns (ROIC/CROIC). Manageable debt. Growing sales and earnings over the past few years. Operating cash flow out-pacing NI, and priced below intrinsic value to boot.
I own this one. Given my personal stake in it, I really hope it pops. I do know that it has a greater than 15% margin of safety.
Massive Diagnostics Rx Cmpany!
BRCA1/2 testing competition from other companies that will utilize next gen sequencing techniques. Supreme court ruling eliminates Myriad's monopoly
Lost BRCA1/BRCA2 patents. They are going down.
The Affordable Care Act and publicity over A Jolie's surgery due to BRACA genes will boost sales of the BRACA genetics test, of which Myriad is the only producer.
Magic formula with good morningstar grades and high CAPS rating
Porte and ZZ.
I just looked in my database and saw that Myriad's genetic testing revenues were 48M and loss was 8M in Q3 2007. The market cap then was 2130M. In the quarter just reported, revenues were 149M and profit was 35M. The market cap? 2210M.Why is the market cap in February 2013 practically the same as the cap in December 2007 despite a tripling of revenue and a swing from an 8M loss to a 35M profit? Is it because Myriad has Alzheimer's candidate Flurizan to pump up their cap in 2007? I doubt it. No one expected Flurizan to succeed and the share price actually went up when the phase III trial failed and Myriad ditched the albatross. The company hasn't diluted like most growing biopharmas either. In fact, they've been buying back shares aggressively. I've heard positive and negative sentiment about buybacks, but I look at it as the opposite of dilutive financing. It's a vote of self-confidence in the company's future ability to finance their own operations and in the future growth of the stock.Myriad seems to be having success broadening their offerings beyond the core BRACAnalysis. In fact, their most recent CC presents a dizzying array of collaborations and tests in development. It's hard to tell how much is blowing smoke, but Myriad has definitely delivered groundbreaking technology in the past.I've profited on Myriad in the past, but recently I've been reluctant to play as the stock hasn't been able to maintain any upward momentum despite the steady growth in revenues. It's clear that there's an overhang, and I'm virtually certain that the overhang is due to the upcoming Supreme Court decision on the legitimacy of the BRCA gene patents that Myriad has utilized to defend their BRACAnalysis IP from competitors. In August 2012, a federal appeals court ruled 2-1 in Myriad's favor but the stock was pressured when the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case. Oral arguments will take place in late April and a final decision will be rendered by the end of June.I'm hardly a constitutional scholar, but I think the Supreme Court decision is a toss-up. I see two ways to play Myriad - a run-up ahead of the decision, or for a rebound after a ruling against Myriad. I do think at a certain point the current anxiety dragging the share price down will peak and be replaced by a more balanced sentiment. The question, of course, is when that will happen. I can't name a price I would buy at but I will say there's a good chance I'll buy. I don't want to be holding for the Supreme Court ruling, but I think that if the decision goes against Myriad there may be an overreaction as traders assume that BRACAnalysis will immediately become wide open to competition. Myriad does have extensive patents outside of the gene patents that can be used to protect their IP and their profits will likely continue to grow for years after a negative ruling.
I like the whole genetics field long term and this company ssems to have its house in order.
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