Myriad Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:MYGN)

obama's buddies

The Affordable Care Act and publicity over A Jolie's surgery due to BRACA genes will boost sales of the BRACA genetics test, of which Myriad is the only producer.

start $24.5, 2 yr TP $41, stop loss $22.1
long term buy

Magic formula with good morningstar grades and high CAPS rating

Porte and ZZ.

I just looked in my database and saw that Myriad's genetic testing revenues were 48M and loss was 8M in Q3 2007. The market cap then was 2130M. In the quarter just reported, revenues were 149M and profit was 35M. The market cap? 2210M.

Why is the market cap in February 2013 practically the same as the cap in December 2007 despite a tripling of revenue and a swing from an 8M loss to a 35M profit? Is it because Myriad has Alzheimer's candidate Flurizan to pump up their cap in 2007? I doubt it. No one expected Flurizan to succeed and the share price actually went up when the phase III trial failed and Myriad ditched the albatross. The company hasn't diluted like most growing biopharmas either. In fact, they've been buying back shares aggressively. I've heard positive and negative sentiment about buybacks, but I look at it as the opposite of dilutive financing. It's a vote of self-confidence in the company's future ability to finance their own operations and in the future growth of the stock.

Myriad seems to be having success broadening their offerings beyond the core BRACAnalysis. In fact, their most recent CC presents a dizzying array of collaborations and tests in development. It's hard to tell how much is blowing smoke, but Myriad has definitely delivered groundbreaking technology in the past.

I've profited on Myriad in the past, but recently I've been reluctant to play as the stock hasn't been able to maintain any upward momentum despite the steady growth in revenues. It's clear that there's an overhang, and I'm virtually certain that the overhang is due to the upcoming Supreme Court decision on the legitimacy of the BRCA gene patents that Myriad has utilized to defend their BRACAnalysis IP from competitors. In August 2012, a federal appeals court ruled 2-1 in Myriad's favor but the stock was pressured when the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case. Oral arguments will take place in late April and a final decision will be rendered by the end of June.

I'm hardly a constitutional scholar, but I think the Supreme Court decision is a toss-up. I see two ways to play Myriad - a run-up ahead of the decision, or for a rebound after a ruling against Myriad. I do think at a certain point the current anxiety dragging the share price down will peak and be replaced by a more balanced sentiment. The question, of course, is when that will happen. I can't name a price I would buy at but I will say there's a good chance I'll buy. I don't want to be holding for the Supreme Court ruling, but I think that if the decision goes against Myriad there may be an overreaction as traders assume that BRACAnalysis will immediately become wide open to competition. Myriad does have extensive patents outside of the gene patents that can be used to protect their IP and their profits will likely continue to grow for years after a negative ruling.

promising business - solid fundamentals...

Oncology, yep, that's gonna get it for sure.

I like the whole genetics field long term and this company ssems to have its house in order.

First mover in an innovative approach to custom therapies.

Great product without the downside risks of drugs. Increasing contracts with other drug companies for use of their genetic tests for the drug co's drug trials. The future of medicine is personalized based on each inidividual.

Well run company with minimal debt. All star board of directors. The future will eventually be preventative medicine, and this company is an early mover in that field.

Their genetic marker will be a big help to drugmakers targeting patients specifically receptive to their treatments.

It may take a little longer than hoped because of choices the big pharmas made in how they test their therapies, but it ultimately seems Myriad will be the winner.

The pullback gives investors a nice entry point here.

so much competitors

ice and again ice

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http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/11/19/myriad-genetics-mygn-speculating-on-cancer-diagnosis/
Rapid growth and a low PE, in what will soon be the fastest growing industry in the world.

bad background for MYGN...until 2012...

MYGN buys MYGN, others stay away ...