Navistar International Corp (NAV)

This met a high level screen to indicate a sell and strong underperform against its peers (other tickers in its industry). My 1st version of this spreadsheet devles deep into the company's balance sheet and recent income statements, combined with other relevant price data for the company including insider/institutional holdings, short interest, debt levels, etc.
I'm testing capabilities of this 1st version of my automated, valuation spreadsheet matched with my personal criteria and see how it holds up.

Heavy duty trucks and engines not competitive in 2010

Can't beleive Cramer gave Nav the thumbs up.

HE KNOWS NOTHING!

I have relatives who work for navistar so it's always painful for me to short the stock But I still do.

Have heard countless storys of mismanagement. They would not be in buisness except for one government contract.

What I also don't get is why wall street has such a short memory. This stock was delisted and only back due to a reverse split.

Capital Intensive Business, Z-Score way under the magic 1.8 number indicating a high risk of bankruptcy, heavy debt load, low cash flow compared to sales and in 2008 half the cash flow was adjustments to income (?). Only positive news is sales of defense related vehicles and Obama is ready to put a damper on that. This company could be headed toward bankruptcy.

Large Canadian military contract should boost their #'s until the economy picks up.

They have a new over the road diesel coming out. They have a deal with cat for an ofroad vehicle powered with a cat engine. Infrastructure plans will help them. Good company for a long term play

Although I have concerns, I think NAV is undervalued, assuming they can weather the downturn.
They've had terrible earnings vs. revenues; so bad, I can't see them not improving. Historically not the premier mfg (e.g. vs PCAR), but seem to have improved their reputation.
Good products in the U.S., Hybrids a plus, though lower gas prices will help the trucking industry more overall.
Military sales a plus, but I don't think that's the story or reason to buy.
As with a lot of industries, the growth opportunity is developing countries, but for this they need a cab-over design.
Cat JV a plus, but not sure this will be a significant revenue source.
Still, this is fairly high risk. I've never seen a stock with negative book/sharholder equity. I THINK it's undervalued, based on P/S in good times and opportunity for improvement, but debt is another factor. Note that I'm looking for realization of this value out a few years...

Good earning, military contracts

Great Military Biz, Low PE

Yes, the debt load is obscene. True, too, rival BAE just swiped a big armored vehicle order. But the P/E is too low for logic on this one, and I get a BOTEV valuation close to $12 billion, suggesting it's about 20% undervalued.

If Navistar can do a bit of debt paydown, I bet we'll see that P/E expand a bit.

Done with restatements. Industry is at the trough, with demand soon to pick up again. Big government/military business, building a lot of MRAPs right now.

A highly cyclical industry that is exposed to oil with a PE of 28. I must be missing something here but underperform! Noone wants to be a trucker anymore either so they'll have to increase wages long term.

$23 billion budget for MRAPS (Mine resistant armoured vehicles) will increase revenues for Navstar and moving to NYSE from pink sheets will bump the price up at least 10 pts.

Undervalue here. In line for increased gov't contracts since military is moving more toward MRAP technology for equipment. Trades at 12 times next years numbers, should be about 14 times, which adds 10 points to price. Will be relisted on NYSE soon.

Financial status to get updated with SEC.

sleeper company due to undisclosed financials. due to be released over the next seven months, expect them to be favorable. becoming well diversified and growing at nice annual rate. will be a $15b company by 2010.

They just snagged a huge deal with the military for making armored vehicles. This stock should continue to perform nicely unless congress decides to yank troops and the military cancels their contracts. That is the problem with dealing with the government.....no contract is an actual contract when they sign it.....they can back out at any time.

First let me say that I am amazed at the ignorance of many people when it comes to this company. Does it carry risks, yes but I have been an actual money buyer since 21 and stopped buying in low 30s. Stock is obviously up huge since 2006 when I started buying but I do fear will take another short term downturn after some hot money flies out.

The real money though in this company is in the operating leverage and this current mgmt's ability to not only put in place proper financial controls which I believe they are doing now based on my conversations with some of mgmt and the updates they have provided, but mroe importantly its the ability to leverage existing assets for new opportunities and better cost containment. NAV has never had a problem selling their prodcust. They are the overall market leader in North America. The areas of opportunity have been within the oeprations. The global sourcing and partnerships they now have are working very well for them as is the new military markets, expansion into hybrids, fuel efficiency, parts and engine businesses as well.

NAV has now in many cases become a partner of choice. PCAR is also a great company but in so far as currehnt valuation versus where I think the stock will be by end of 2009, NAV has larger safety margin. Risk is that its on pink sheets (which I believe to be temporary). I am still perplexed how Prudential could be dumb enough to downgrade the stock at 21. I believe this is a classic special situation investment and could very well be a classic example of a long term Buffett investment. In any event, I am a bit sorry I sold some in the 40s for mya ctual account (thankfully held rest) and that I sold it from caps earlier at about 48. I believe NAVZ.pk is between 100 and 150 by end of 2009.

company will outperform with expansion into additional markets such as the military.