Nova Biosource Fuels, Inc. is an energy company that refines and markets ASTM standard biodiesel and related co-products.
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This is a big mover for BioDiesel. Starting by Executives from XOM and Shell
Just read the second quarter results on June 10th and am not impressed. "We expect our costs to range from $0.40 per pound to$0.42 per pound on average for the third quarter." -Sounds great right? Well not when you realize that 7.5 pounds of… More
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Just read the second quarter results on June 10th and am not impressed.
"We expect our costs to range from $0.40 per pound to$0.42 per pound on average for the third quarter." -Sounds great right? Well not when you realize that 7.5 pounds of feedstock equals 1 gallon. So you are talking about the feedstock alone costing $3.00-3.15/gal.
"Biodiesel production costs are highly dependent on feedstock prices, with feedstock representing approximately 75% to 85% of the finished product cost" -Wow! 75% to 85% is a huge difference. That's like saying "Well, our profit margin is somewhere between 0% and 10%." Not to mention the carefully worded "finished product cost" which is meaningless. There is no doubt in my mind that they intentionally avoided saying "total production cost", which would have left out any gray area. The reason, of course, is that the actual percentage is probably far lower, which is one of the reasons why this company is not making a profit.
Just for fun, let's assume that they will pay $3.15/gal for feedstock during the third quarter, and that this will comprise 75% of TOTAL production cost. If this dream were to be a reality, the total production cost for a gallon of biodiesel would be $4.20 for the third quarter. Let's assume a very modest market price of $4.70/gal for the third quarter. That's a POSITIVE profit margin of 10%. Unless of course they're lying. No! Could it be??? Underperform this stock in CAPS any time that it rises above $1.50, period...
Recs
This is a big mover for BioDiesel. Starting by Executives from XOM and Shell
Recs
New plants, cheap feedstock, business is growing.
Find the members with the highest scoring picks in NBFAQ.
MFBriguy (99.97) Score: +431.78
The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in NBFAQ.
Top Pick |
Member Name |
Member Rating |
Start Date |
Call |
Time Frame |
Start Price |
Stock Gain |
Index Gain |
Score | Commentary |
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ToeInsider | 26.10 | 3/11/2008 | NS | $1.85 | -99.99% | +308.86% | +408.86 | 0 Comment | ||
tweegar | 57.45 | 3/3/2008 | 5Y | $2.04 | -100.00% | +301.44% | +401.44 | 0 Comment | ||
BuffetRocks | 94.30 | 3/3/2008 | 3M | $2.01 | -100.00% | +301.08% | +401.08 | 0 Comment | ||
bdigregorio | 90.26 | 3/27/2008 | 3Y | $1.53 | -99.99% | +299.13% | +399.13 | 0 Comment | ||
studpicker | 32.79 | 2/15/2008 | NS | $2.08 | -100.00% | +298.58% | +398.57 | 0 Comment | ||
chrislcull | 24.79 | 3/27/2008 | NS | $1.55 | -99.99% | +297.58% | +397.58 | 0 Comment | ||
RagTimeCharley | 80.09 | 3/6/2007 | 5Y | $3.10 | -100.00% | +292.24% | +392.23 | 0 Comment | ||
djelder | 59.65 | 3/15/2007 | 3W | $2.82 | -100.00% | +291.71% | +391.71 | 0 Comment | ||
MFBriguy | 99.97 |
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5Y | $1.50 | -99.99% | +291.06% | +391.05 | 0 Comment | ||
xuanling11 | < 20 | 2/19/2008 | 5Y | $2.13 | -100.00% | +291.01% | +391.01 | 0 Comment |
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