+ Watch NDLS
on My Watchlist
My NDLS pick is based on a lesson I think I learned from my years as a H.G. sub, missing out on BWLD and CMG. Coming from an area where there are excellent choices for Buffalo Wings all over the place I could never understand how a wing franchise would take off nationally. Then again, the one and only time I ever tried Dominoes Pizza, I thought it tasted like cardboard and yet it seems to have done pretty well. What do I know? In my evolution as an investor though, I am coming to see the value of getting in on new franchises. In the past I focused on beaten down turn around stories or once in a while a new technology potentially on the verge of massive growth where the potential is rapid growth at some point in the near to mid term. With a franchise (done right) it looks like the opportunity is maybe a little less explosive growth but more methodical and longer term growth.With that in mind, when I saw NDLS being discussed in CAPS; and figured due to the interest, it was probably a recommendation in one or more of the TMF newsletters, I decided to take a look. In order to get a sense of where this one could go I decided to do a crude model using CMG as a basis for scaling NDLS up over the next 10 years. In 2004 CMG had a similar number of stores as NDLS has now, so I used that as the base year and then compared how revenues and expenses grew from then until 2011 or over 8 years. I then extrapolated the same or a little more conservative growth rates to NDLS but over 10 years to add in a safety factor. I got ~$5.6/ share in earnings in 10 years. Currently CMG is trading for 56X earnings. I don't feel comfortable assuming that high of a P/E, so I ball parked NDLS could do 20X-30X earnings at that point for ~$112-$168/ share. That works out to nearly 12%-17% return per year. I also did a DCF using the same 10 year growth rate and ball parked earnings doubling over the following 10 years (11-20) before a terminal rate of 3%. That got me to a fair value of ~$43/ share or ~19% better than the current price tag. Too me this one looks moderately undervalued based on reasonable expectations and could be a high flier if things go better than reasonable expectations. It's definitely worth following in CAPS and I decided to add a stake to my real life portfolio as well.
As a value investor, it's hard for me to be bullish on the stock because I get hung up on the p/e. But when I analyze the business model, the execution, and the expansion I have no choice but to think this will be a long-term winner. Will the market give a better entry point eventually? Possibly, but as fast as this company is growing there's no guarantee.
just eat there! not many places better
Great potential for growth, healthy food, lot of customizations, made to order
Same group that started chipotle,should be able to get this off the ground.
Thanks to pencils2 for the write up on this stock. Lots of long term CMG personnel working for this recent IPO. The valuation is SCARY, and it will have some ugly dips along the way because of the valuation. But I want to back this team for the long run.
Noodles has found a popular fast food segment that had not been previously wrapped in a chain concept. The low cost per serving should secure profitability for Noodles, even if management and execution is only mediocre.
I've eaten here, and I love Noodles. The stores that I've been in are all clean and look 'new' (they won't need to renovate for a long time), they're kid friendly (my son LOVES Noodles!), the food is great, service is great, wait times are minimal. While their financial sheet isn't fully fleshed out, they have a higher margin vs. industry, a solid expansion plan, and I think they'll grow well in the next 5 years.
Given the similarities to already massively successful casual dining chains like Chipotle Mexican Grill and Panera Bread, Noodles & Company is a restaurant chain that is still very much in the early stages of growth. With a diverse menu and attractive price points, the company should find continued success as it looks to rapidly increase its store count in the coming years.
good management, targets best demo for growth
cuz of expansion
Putting this on Caps as a reminder to try their noodles...
IPO enthusiasm. Fundamentally, its a somewhat unproven restaurant model in an incredibly competitive space. I will be shocked if it's able to grow into its 400+ PE.
Huge potential to grow and enter the price range of a Panera or Chipotle, but in the immediate term, there's going to be some volatility to ride out
top notch managementgood menubusy restaurantslots of growth 300+ now 1400 programmed
The restaurants do well because the service is friendly & responsive, your order comes out quickly, and the food is remarkably good for the money you pay (like at Chipotle) -- Kottke.org
Like All IPOs, reality shall soon set in.
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