Noodles & Company (NASDAQ:NDLS)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

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Member Avatar TMFNinjaPanda (44.36) Submitted: 8/19/2014 10:21:35 AM : Underperform Start Price: $20.81 NDLS Score: +6.25

Ordinary (or maybe even sub-par) food quality plus overly positive expectation for market expansion make NDLS a poor investment. The management really has to try harder on improving their service or renovating their business model to beat the market.

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Member Avatar Flygal5 (99.24) Submitted: 8/13/2014 6:36:19 PM : Underperform Start Price: $20.17 NDLS Score: +4.74

Missing on numbers, more pain ahead

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Member Avatar anindakumars (30.67) Submitted: 8/13/2014 4:56:04 PM : Outperform Start Price: $19.86 NDLS Score: -3.23

company will outperform as more stores open and the loyalty program is revamped

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Member Avatar kentchem (61.38) Submitted: 8/5/2014 2:20:53 PM : Outperform Start Price: $26.94 NDLS Score: -31.18

After the a nasty winter, and the company missed earning that were never adjusted, this company is positioned nicely for a monster rebound. Short interest is extremely high, expectations are extremely low and the amount of stock available is tiny. This thing is a rocket ready to lift off.

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Member Avatar regotoguy (99.66) Submitted: 7/22/2014 5:43:55 AM : Underperform Start Price: $28.52 NDLS Score: +31.92

Bankruptcy 2015

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Member Avatar AtomicBlicky (23.11) Submitted: 5/27/2014 9:47:05 AM : Underperform Start Price: $33.72 NDLS Score: +46.16

Corporate Noodle company!! Hahahahahah

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Member Avatar jtallenmd (99.60) Submitted: 5/7/2014 1:41:29 PM : Underperform Start Price: $32.31 NDLS Score: +45.85

I really like these restaurants, but I do think their meals are overpriced for what you get. I also think the stock is overpriced at the moment. I think a more realistic value is $12.

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Member Avatar rhrehak (< 20) Submitted: 4/29/2014 2:49:21 PM : Outperform Start Price: $36.00 NDLS Score: -51.78

Great concept, good growth rate, lots of room for growth

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Member Avatar MKArch (99.72) Submitted: 1/31/2014 8:55:44 PM : Outperform Start Price: $36.45 NDLS Score: -57.70

My NDLS pick is based on a lesson I think I learned from my years as a H.G. sub, missing out on BWLD and CMG. Coming from an area where there are excellent choices for Buffalo Wings all over the place I could never understand how a wing franchise would take off nationally. Then again, the one and only time I ever tried Dominoes Pizza, I thought it tasted like cardboard and yet it seems to have done pretty well. What do I know? In my evolution as an investor though, I am coming to see the value of getting in on new franchises. In the past I focused on beaten down turn around stories or once in a while a new technology potentially on the verge of massive growth where the potential is rapid growth at some point in the near to mid term. With a franchise (done right) it looks like the opportunity is maybe a little less explosive growth but more methodical and longer term growth.

With that in mind, when I saw NDLS being discussed in CAPS; and figured due to the interest, it was probably a recommendation in one or more of the TMF newsletters, I decided to take a look. In order to get a sense of where this one could go I decided to do a crude model using CMG as a basis for scaling NDLS up over the next 10 years. In 2004 CMG had a similar number of stores as NDLS has now, so I used that as the base year and then compared how revenues and expenses grew from then until 2011 or over 8 years. I then extrapolated the same or a little more conservative growth rates to NDLS but over 10 years to add in a safety factor. I got ~$5.6/ share in earnings in 10 years. Currently CMG is trading for 56X earnings. I don't feel comfortable assuming that high of a P/E, so I ball parked NDLS could do 20X-30X earnings at that point for ~$112-$168/ share. That works out to nearly 12%-17% return per year. I also did a DCF using the same 10 year growth rate and ball parked earnings doubling over the following 10 years (11-20) before a terminal rate of 3%. That got me to a fair value of ~$43/ share or ~19% better than the current price tag.

Too me this one looks moderately undervalued based on reasonable expectations and could be a high flier if things go better than reasonable expectations. It's definitely worth following in CAPS and I decided to add a stake to my real life portfolio as well.

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Member Avatar thequast (84.44) Submitted: 1/3/2014 12:44:53 PM : Outperform Start Price: $35.97 NDLS Score: -54.63

As a value investor, it's hard for me to be bullish on the stock because I get hung up on the p/e. But when I analyze the business model, the execution, and the expansion I have no choice but to think this will be a long-term winner. Will the market give a better entry point eventually? Possibly, but as fast as this company is growing there's no guarantee.

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Member Avatar rseeleyco (< 20) Submitted: 12/29/2013 3:15:00 AM : Outperform Start Price: $35.31 NDLS Score: -53.00

just eat there! not many places better

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Member Avatar TMFJMo (70.80) Submitted: 12/26/2013 2:15:10 PM : Underperform Start Price: $33.80 NDLS Score: +50.54

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/looking-back-and-looking/907100

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Member Avatar ltauro (< 20) Submitted: 12/10/2013 11:39:06 AM : Outperform Start Price: $38.28 NDLS Score: -59.09

Same group that started chipotle,should be able to get this off the ground.

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Member Avatar klarcbarr (33.97) Submitted: 11/13/2013 7:33:55 AM : Outperform Start Price: $43.91 NDLS Score: -68.76

Noodles has found a popular fast food segment that had not been previously wrapped in a chain concept. The low cost per serving should secure profitability for Noodles, even if management and execution is only mediocre.

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Member Avatar Gunnarsdaddy (46.07) Submitted: 11/11/2013 2:51:54 PM : Outperform Start Price: $43.17 NDLS Score: -67.22

I've eaten here, and I love Noodles. The stores that I've been in are all clean and look 'new' (they won't need to renovate for a long time), they're kid friendly (my son LOVES Noodles!), the food is great, service is great, wait times are minimal. While their financial sheet isn't fully fleshed out, they have a higher margin vs. industry, a solid expansion plan, and I think they'll grow well in the next 5 years.

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Member Avatar PhilipS (36.94) Submitted: 10/7/2013 12:28:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $44.40 NDLS Score: -74.82

Given the similarities to already massively successful casual dining chains like Chipotle Mexican Grill and Panera Bread, Noodles & Company is a restaurant chain that is still very much in the early stages of growth. With a diverse menu and attractive price points, the company should find continued success as it looks to rapidly increase its store count in the coming years.

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Member Avatar VirtualToro (81.20) Submitted: 9/22/2013 12:17:04 PM : Outperform Start Price: $44.07 NDLS Score: -72.66

good management, targets best demo for growth

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Member Avatar Bish53 (< 20) Submitted: 9/1/2013 4:52:29 PM : Outperform Start Price: $46.16 NDLS Score: -78.43

cuz of expansion

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Member Avatar HarryCarysGhost (99.70) Submitted: 7/21/2013 10:58:43 AM : Outperform Start Price: $43.10 NDLS Score: -72.40

Putting this on Caps as a reminder to try their noodles...

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Member Avatar CommonScents (55.15) Submitted: 7/18/2013 1:45:29 PM : Underperform Start Price: $43.79 NDLS Score: +73.58

IPO enthusiasm. Fundamentally, its a somewhat unproven restaurant model in an incredibly competitive space. I will be shocked if it's able to grow into its 400+ PE.

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