Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

Netflix delivers its comprehensive library of movies and TV shows online and through the mail in their ubiquitous red envelopes.

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Member Avatar davidm9999 (66.03) Submitted: 3/25/2015 11:12:19 AM : Underperform Start Price: $427.93 NFLX Score: +1.21

Big run-up has this media giant over-valued. +plus it is having identity crisis with being a distributor vs. producer (of movies) vs. mail order company

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Member Avatar golf310 (< 20) Submitted: 3/16/2015 12:42:20 PM : Underperform Start Price: $418.80 NFLX Score: -0.74

Tried the free streaming trial this weekend & it was worthless. Continual buffering even though I have 5mbps service. Went online & saw that buffering has been a continual problem wiht the streaming service

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Member Avatar PiDay (53.56) Submitted: 3/16/2015 9:57:29 AM : Underperform Start Price: $424.75 NFLX Score: +0.77

3

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Member Avatar thumbsUpFool (98.17) Submitted: 3/12/2015 11:14:11 PM : Underperform Start Price: $447.35 NFLX Score: +6.26

I am not a naysayer or a doomsday predictor. This market is in new territory though, and it WILL come down sooner, rather than later. There are two strong predictors of serious crashes and those are the Shiller PE (CAPE) and Warren Buffet's favorite Mkt Cap to GNP. The CAPE goes back further, so let's look at that. There have only been three times before now that the CAPE (price to last 10 yr avg earnings or "Cyclically Adjusted PE) has soared past 25x. The Great Depression, The Dot Com boom, and the Housing Boom. All three times the market plummeted back down. The average 3 yr annualized return following these peaks averages about -19%. High PE and negative PE stocks will be absolutely obliterated, and this is one of those. I am calculating based on historical averages that the likelihood the crash has already begun is 27%. It's still more in the markets favor than not that the climb will continue, but each month that passes will eventually tip that in the other direction. So where are we going? I don't know, I can only go on history, and history does not always repeat itself exactly the same way. I do know though that I have made many successful stock picks based on books I've read and my personal experiences. History was the sole basis of every one of these books and every one of the decisions I made...When will the drop occur? Again, I don't know, I can only guess based on the averages of the amount of time it has taken in the past. In the Great Depression, after the CAPE reached 25, the crash happened within approx 300 days. The market during the dotcom and housing booms started its decline more than 4 years after reaching 25x. It will most likely be somewhere in between but this is one of only 4 data points so many outcomes are possible. I'm thumbsupfool, why the hell am I giving a thumbs down? Because this is a seriously overvalued time. One of the greatest in US market history.

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Member Avatar SANTAMARIA (46.24) Submitted: 3/6/2015 8:57:12 PM : Underperform Start Price: $454.93 NFLX Score: +7.36

This stock is not OUTR.

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Member Avatar seektheguru (42.66) Submitted: 3/5/2015 10:28:40 PM : Outperform Start Price: $466.50 NFLX Score: -8.86

Great streaming content and fantastic leadership.

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Member Avatar petfoe (< 20) Submitted: 3/3/2015 6:23:51 PM : Underperform Start Price: $472.71 NFLX Score: +9.59

One word, competition.

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Member Avatar jander2 (68.18) Submitted: 2/16/2015 11:55:21 AM : Outperform Start Price: $22.00 NFLX Score: +1,676.22

5

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Member Avatar Hitler555 (30.27) Submitted: 2/11/2015 8:17:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $455.41 NFLX Score: -7.38

Netflix like Face Book a Household name.

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Member Avatar BASSALDMF (55.46) Submitted: 2/10/2015 11:05:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $453.81 NFLX Score: -7.68

SPREADING OVER THE WORLD OF BILLIONS FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. E.G "CHINA..ETC"

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Member Avatar mooremo (< 20) Submitted: 2/5/2015 4:59:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $451.79 NFLX Score: -8.12

Excellent direction! Making moves to own their own content and succeeding at it.

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Member Avatar JohnCLeven (66.11) Submitted: 2/2/2015 8:36:20 PM : Underperform Start Price: $434.55 NFLX Score: +7.73

Good ole fashioned overvaluation.

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Member Avatar NickInvestments (71.03) Submitted: 1/30/2015 6:41:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $439.90 NFLX Score: -8.04

Future of Movies/TV. Taking initiative. Quality User Experience.

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Member Avatar diceroller (< 20) Submitted: 1/30/2015 11:21:52 AM : Outperform Start Price: $442.13 NFLX Score: -8.41

From a generational perspective, I don't think there is a better platform for TV entertainment. Watching normal program show that is slotted at a specific time is a thing of the past. We are moving in a direction that we like to watch what we please, when we want without extra fees for a dvr. Oh and all of the original independent content that Netflix is producing is there game changer.

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Member Avatar HIcorp (45.22) Submitted: 1/27/2015 12:02:43 AM : Outperform Start Price: $441.61 NFLX Score: -6.91

Because I believe cable is dead.....and it killed it's self with bad service and overpriced everything.....I have amazon Prime for $7 month and netflix for $8 a month....and HBO and other channels will soon offer their own streaming service.....

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Member Avatar moonlightsail (39.46) Submitted: 1/22/2015 2:34:02 PM : Outperform Start Price: $425.23 NFLX Score: -2.03

Growing earnings, higher price targets.

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Member Avatar rbitrage (76.19) Submitted: 1/7/2015 12:00:47 AM : Underperform Start Price: $331.43 NFLX Score: -24.11

P/e over 85. Company's stock has done really well, but now the market is taking back. The company's growth is great, but the company isn't as profitable as it should be. I'd like the stock at about 1/4 the current price. I am not saying the company is going bankrupt but the current price is too high.

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Member Avatar PackinPhish (< 20) Submitted: 1/2/2015 10:39:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $344.81 NFLX Score: +20.55

dynamic industry disrupter time and time again...need to say more?

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Member Avatar Deepblue22 (64.90) Submitted: 1/2/2015 4:01:23 AM : Outperform Start Price: $344.06 NFLX Score: +21.91

Great original content and international expansion is a good combination for the coming years.

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Member Avatar Pottyboy (< 20) Submitted: 12/17/2014 3:17:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $330.36 NFLX Score: +24.28

I enjoy purchasing stock for the long term and I believe Netflix (NFLX) has a lot of upside in the near future.
I am attaching a Reuters article that speaks to the expansion into the European market.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/21/us-netflix-europe-idUSBREA4K03D20140521

My original feeling before the collapse of the Russian Ruble yesterday was that this could all take off within the next 3-6 month's or so.

Now my view has changed and I have become a bit more "bearish" on the prospects in Europe.

First of all the collapse of the Ruble WILL MOST DEFINITELY affect the German economy the greatest and most assuredly Europe as a whole. I believe this will dampen the monetary value and the public will draw back from unnecessary purchases like Netflix.

Secondly, this monetary problem will affect Netflix ability to provide content at a "value" price.

Lastly, on the home front (USA), it doesn't look like subscriptions will increase in any "massive" scale that might offset the Euro issue.

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