Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)

competitors will drive it down
maybe apple will acquire

Oversold loss of subscribers.

I could not have foreseen the dumb decisions they made after I bought it. However, the stock is currently way oversold and will likely climb back to the mid 150's without much trouble. Free money to be made here.

My step-daughter uses streaming only . . . I say "why, their movie content sucks!" . . . . Her answer is telling "we don't care, NFLX is how we watch our fav TV shows (vs. cable)" ya' see they do buy cable internet access, but the thought of paying for cable TV is absurd to her. . . And the millions of others her age.

This one could bite, but I'm a believer. Short term, this could go deep into the red. Long term, I think its a green thumb.

Glad I bought just a taste of this stock. Down about 60% after hours

Huge drop with recent issues (raising prices, etc), I think they are headed back in the right direction now, though. This is a game-changer type stock, the market potential with future technology is still huge.

NFLX will definately outperform. They have loads of cash they generate monthly from thier subscription service. Not to mention they are the best out their for the streaming service, which the public should have been happy about them splitting up because it would have aloud each company to focus on being the best in that section, and aloud for more deals to be struck per section. I've read many articles about competition, and have tried many of the personally. They don't really compare for streaming. Their customer service (is) superb and their quality is as good as your isp's speed will allow for the streaming side. The only thing netflix needs to do is offer something like amazon has to pay extra to rent (new) movies, then they will have that market cornered like amazon has the online maarket cornered. I am long netlix.

Since they ditched the name change and the bad idea of splitting the company, this stock should at least be in for a rebound from its beaten-down position. Currently down over 60% from its high, it is hugely oversold. Their earnings aren't down 60%.

Man this stock is dropping like a rock. It used to be at almost 300. Now it is at110.80 as of 10-18-11. Sell sell sell

First off, Netflix has secretly increased it prices to rent DVDs. Second, there are websites like Hulu and Joost where I believe you can watch free movies and shows with regular commercial breaks.

Neflix lacks of a sustainable competitive advantage. Case in point is Amazon: with its free streaming option Amazon offers online streaming as part of a wider ecosystem than just online streaming. Amazon engages the user on multiple fronts, making it a sticky user. Netflix offer just online streaming, which is a commodity. Customer will defect. Unless Netflix is able to work the economics of purchasing exclusive rights to top notch shows and movies, I doubt the company is going to make it beyond 5 years.

NFLX is over punished by its confusing decisions. It is still the future of how we watch TV and movies. It is the front runner by miles...unless a new model emerges

While NFLX is earning money, it's simply too overpriced, even after falling 60%.

value play?

The company's been oversold. The CEO is a visionary who sees a different digital future. Eventually, it won't be DVDs. International growth is set to take off in the next few years.

The stock has been clobbered due to recent gaffes in tactics (not strategy). Bears abound, discussing the lack of barriers to entry in the streaming video market. Savvier investors question CEO Reed Hastings' decision-making ability. Let's examine these factors:

1) Nimble companies change tactics all the time. Startup-minded people call this "pivoting," and it's what is expected of smart companies when they make a mistake. Rewarding new markets are by definition opaque, so successful companies all undergo a discovery process to learn the contours of their markets. We want them to do this rather than sticking with a failing set of tactics. So Netflix made a couple of pivots here, and they earned a lot of bad press and bad feelings from their execution.

But through all of this, the broader strategy hasn't changed. Netflix still aims to be the #1 way for people to watch professionally-produced video content in the world. I think of Netflix as aiming to be the Comcast for the whole world, the single place to go to watch stuff other than dancing cats on the Internet. Nothing in the last 6 months indicates that Netflix has lost sight of that goal. They may have had the map upside down lately, but they are still trying to get to the same place as always.

2) Regarding low barriers to entry in the streaming video market, there is some truth to that. Of course, this is only true to the extent that it has been true for the last 14+ years since Netflix was founded. During that time, any number of better-funded and better-connected companies have tried to kill Netflix. They all failed, which indicates that either a) there are substantial non-obvious barriers to entry in this market or b) Netflix is just really lucky, and no other firms are interested in scooping up the $100m+ in profits Netflix earns annually. I'll put my money on a), thanks!

Beyond the obvious analysis, the "wide moat" crowd ignores network effects in this market. This isn't social networking, but rather the add-on effect of Netflix shipping on zillions of devices. Netflix is built into TVs, set-top boxes, and game systems sold in the tens of millions annually. No entrant can easily replicate the tens of millions of devices already in the field and yet to be sold. Regardless of what the bears say, there is a tangible value to having a Netflix menu option on millions of TVs.

And let's not discount content licensing costs while we're at it. Netflix is spending billions of dollars licensing content. While many companies could in theory do this, most have not shown an interest in doing so at the prices required. Desire to win a market is in itself a barrier to entry, and one that will keep many competitors at bay.

Finally, in tech it pays to look at who's shipping today. In this market, that's Apple, Amazon, Hulu, and Netflix. Netflix has been competing against these companies for years, and doing very well. Nothing has changed here; none of them have announced a Netflix-killing studio license agreement or device lockup.

Microsoft has made some good announcements, but their streaming content is not really there yet. And Microsoft is an especially egregious offender of the pre-announcement.

3) Reed Hastings is fallible and will make mistakes again in the future. There, now that we have that out of the way, Hastings also built Netflix from zero revenue to $3 billion plus in revenue, across three major shifts in business model (DVD sales, DVD rentals, streaming). With his track record, assuming he's lost his mojo for one blunder would be foolish. Netflix is now roughly as large as MSFT was in 1992, and Reed Hastings took Netflix to that size faster than Bill Gates did with Microsoft*. Is this really the track record of a person who could reasonably be expected to start flunking out? We forgave Microsoft for Windows 3.1, certainly Netflix can get a break here?

*Obviously I'm not adjusting for inflation etc., but that's not all that relevant here.)

You can't stop Reed, you can only hope to contain him. Mr. Market has done a great job of containing him lately (or perhaps he's done that himself) but not long term....

Netflix has streaming in almost every device in consumer's hands now. Considering it is only located in the US, Canada and part of south america it will continue to grow... as long as they don't decide to "split the company" again.