Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NKTR)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company which develops breakthrough products that make a difference in patients' lives. It creates differentiated, innovative products by applying its platform technologies to established or novel medicines.

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Member Avatar memberofthetribe (24.46) Submitted: 7/2/2014 11:39:08 AM : Outperform Start Price: $13.45 NKTR Score: -18.61

too strong a pipeline to ignore...

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Member Avatar BLUF (< 20) Submitted: 5/3/2014 1:47:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.39 NKTR Score: -9.31

In all of my years of investing, I have never seen a Biotech company with 8 potential drugs in Phase III, half of those in late Phase III. I believe Nektar presents an unprecedented high risk/high reward opportunity for investors. In my opinion if half of the eight drugs are approved by the FDA, the stock could reach new highs easily.

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Member Avatar fatmoneyrz (95.32) Submitted: 9/27/2013 10:11:36 AM : Outperform Start Price: $10.55 NKTR Score: -13.09

Buying opportunities like this don't come along often. NKTR is solid, some nice upcoming catalysts in late 2013.

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Member Avatar rknapton (< 20) Submitted: 8/22/2013 4:35:38 PM : Underperform Start Price: $12.04 NKTR Score: +27.54

Short. Biopharma with massive losses.

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Member Avatar reachmygoals1 (< 20) Submitted: 3/31/2012 10:11:52 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.34 NKTR Score: -8.27

NKTR is ready to takeoff. Partner Affymax FDA approved drug Peginesatide, royalties for Nektar. Top line results coming soon in April for ovarian cancer.

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.67) Submitted: 12/16/2011 2:19:35 AM : Underperform Start Price: $5.17 NKTR Score: -50.70

It kind of hurts to drop a red thumb on Nektar, a former favorite of mine and a big CAPS green thumb loser. On the other hand it's good to remind myself that in biotech, cheap stocks get cheaper. In October 2010 Nektar's share price nearly touched 16 following the release of encouraging phase II data for PEGylated irinotecan NKTR-102 in ovarian cancer and breast cancer. The previous year, Nektar had pulled off a surprisingly remunerative partnership with AstraZeneca for PEGylated naloxol NKTR-118 and the market was clearly anticipating another major deal for NKTR-102.

When Nektar announced they would be proceeding to phase III trials of NKTR-102 without a partnership, the share price began a steep decline that continued virtually unabated for over a year. The price dropped back down below 12, the level it had been at after the first good data on NKTR-102 came out. Then it dropped through 10, where it had jumped on the AstraZeneca deal. Ultimately it dropped as low as 4.23, the lowest level since the broad market declines of early 2009. The company was being valued as though NKTR-102 and NKTR-118 essentially didn't exist.

In fairness, some dilution meant that a share price of 4.5 in 2009 meant a market cap about 50M lower than a market cap of 4.5 in 2011. On the other hand the company has a net asset balance of 230M today versus 120M in 2009. The stock has enjoyed a moderate rebound of late, slipping above the 5 mark and thereby garnering my red thumb.

I could easily go back down a hundred points on this pick in a month. Nektar is a loose cannon, wildly careening from exaggerated highs to hopeless depths, amidst a seeming inability of the street to judge the potential of their pipeline. A similar phenomenon occurred with Savient last year, and I was similarly fooled although in that case it cost me a substantial chunk of change. NKTR-102 and NKTR-118 are now enrolling phase III trials, but significant data is unlikely from either trial before late 2012. That's a lot of time for Nektar's share price to settle back to the pessimistic depths as investors keep speculative stocks at arm's length. If I'm wrong once again and the share price shoots back skyward, the pick will serve as a reminder not to judge a stock's valuation by what its price was a few months ago.

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Member Avatar GreenCollegeGrad (79.20) Submitted: 3/10/2011 12:28:24 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.88 NKTR Score: -28.14

Trustin my man port on this one

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Member Avatar loganpb (< 20) Submitted: 5/29/2010 3:19:54 AM : Outperform Start Price: $12.10 NKTR Score: -91.64

They have already been outperforming the market. I feel they will continue to do so with new products coming to market.

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Member Avatar ParadigmsShift (< 20) Submitted: 4/9/2010 6:57:19 PM : Outperform Start Price: $15.01 NKTR Score: -91.91

Here’s my case for why NKTR will be at $50 by end 2010.
Two events likely to occur this year would make $50 PPS a reasonable projection.
(Though not necessarily in this order.)

A deal with Amgen on PEG reagent supply for Neulasta/Neupogena ($4.7B) at a modest 3% cut of revenue would bring in $140M. If current R&D costs are maintained, then NKTR should post positive earnings at about $1.00-$1.50/share (93.6M OS shares). Now we’re looking at a stock with fantastic growth prospects priced at 10-15X earnings. Furthermore, they’re sitting on nearly $400M in cash, enough to fund several years of operating expenses in the absence of further financing. Factor in the company will now be generating a sustainable profit, making it more appealing to a broader range of investors. This is the catalyst for a massive breakout. Also consider the shorts (7M shares, 7.5% of float) will now be scrambling to cover their positions. Double to $30.

Then comes the kicker. Lucrative partnership deal with -102 involving a $100M+ upfront payment, milestone bonuses, and double digit royalties. Is it too presumptuous to assume they’ll pull a sweet deal, as was done with -118? No! They’re sitting on a blockbuster, and they’re not going to give it away cheaply. Excellent demonstrated efficacy in ovarian cancer with potential indications in colorectal and breast cancer. Best in class for an unmet medical need. There’s no reason to think they can’t execute a similar deal, or better. When this transpires, the stock will already be red hot with substantial momentum, and benefiting from broader market awareness. Jump to $40.

Now we’re looking at a company with two partnered drug candidates and a rich pipeline. Mitigated risk. And if -102 is fast-tracked by the FDA, approvable on Phase IIB data? And progress with the non-narcotic opioid platform? A drug providing effective treatment of chronic/neuropathic pain with negligible abuse potential is (conservatively) another billion dollar ringer. The nature of their polymer-conjugation platform technology allows them to turn these concepts into reality 2-3X faster than the 12 year process for traditional drug development. On fresh news and speculation, bump to $50.

Looking further down the pike, once one of their drugs is approved and hits the pharmacy shelves, we’re looking at double-digit royalties on a $1B+ drug. In the case of -118/-119, royalties may be upwards of 20%. At earnings of $3 per share, $60/share would be reasonable for a growth company. If -102 makes it to market (and this could happen sooner than expected if it’s fast-tracked), I’d be looking for the stock price to approach $100.

The best news is, that at $15 there doesn’t appear to be much downside risk. Even if their leading candidates, -118, -119, and -102 don’t make it to market, this value could be justified by income from refurbished deals on PEG supply with Amgen (Neulasta)and Merck (PEG-Intron), coupled with the nascent value of the remaining candidates in their pipeline (pain, oncology).

This stock is truly a diamond in the rough, offering tremendous growth potential with only moderate risk. What more could you ask for?

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Member Avatar TheBotttomFeeder (50.89) Submitted: 10/31/2008 4:48:23 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.65 NKTR Score: +122.00

I just noticed how outdated all of the pitches for and against NKTR are. The Exubera debacle is behind them, and people are just waking up to the notion that this is a different company with a bright future.

There are a lot of positives here: The burn rate has been cut. A recent partnership with Bayer for inhaled Amikacin had very favorable terms. The sale of the pulmonary arm of the company minus some of the most advanced candidates to NVS strengthened NKTR's financial position, and cost them little. Perhaps most importantly, the power and value of their PEGylation platform is just now starting to get some of the attention it deserves. NKTR-102, NKTR-105, NKTR-118, NKTR-119. These are the proprietary drug candidates that could make anybody buying NKTR in the current price range a very happy camper in 3-5 years. NKTR-102, PEG irinotecan, is already showing convincing signs of substantial improvement over the unmodified parent molecule. This combined with the revenue stream expected from the partnered products makes NKTR an extremely undervalued company that few have noticed in the wreckage of the larger market.

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Member Avatar b3agle (35.16) Submitted: 5/19/2008 12:48:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.58 NKTR Score: +96.88

Turn around already!

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Member Avatar Aiden1976 (91.24) Submitted: 4/9/2008 12:32:59 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.06 NKTR Score: +65.41

Because Pfizer want to stop sell the product(inulin inhaler) with NKTR, and the stock got plunge down hard by about 25%. But it will search for another partner to continue sell the product. It might be down for awhile, but I will come back up.

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Member Avatar gqd911 (< 20) Submitted: 2/19/2008 2:21:51 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.36 NKTR Score: +18.68

NKTR will outperform their shares in the next two q'S?

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Member Avatar boojbot (43.03) Submitted: 2/13/2008 11:47:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.63 NKTR Score: +14.98

NKTR will focus on PEGylation. A technology that should pharmaceutical companies will fall in love with to keep their drugs on patent longer.

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Member Avatar murray2253 (< 20) Submitted: 12/3/2007 1:12:34 PM : Underperform Start Price: $6.66 NKTR Score: -24.64

APPLIC OF MEDS THROUGH LUNGS --- ???

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Member Avatar RxAlliance (< 20) Submitted: 10/30/2007 7:10:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.92 NKTR Score: +50.69

On e plus side, NKTR has a solid and experienced management tean in place and a successful track record of developing products.

On the minus side, the new CEO is untried in the current situation and it remains to be seen if he can find the right strategy to guide NKTR out of the woods.

At under $6, NKTR has a lot of upside potential.

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Member Avatar Obecalp (< 20) Submitted: 10/30/2007 5:15:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.92 NKTR Score: +50.69

NKTR has already been taken to the woodshed for the Exubera debacle. When the dust settles the relatively strong pipeline, and the underlying technology should get the attention they deserve. The recent Bayer deal, a solid positive, has been overshadowed by Pfizer's move to drop Exubera.

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Member Avatar Traderguild (< 20) Submitted: 9/30/2007 9:13:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.82 NKTR Score: -11.33

early pipeline gaining visibility,good news flow in the past couple of weeks

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Member Avatar tomshow (< 20) Submitted: 8/22/2007 10:54:22 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.55 NKTR Score: -13.86

Diabets help with more marketing exposure

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Member Avatar slickcyr (81.88) Submitted: 7/19/2007 12:25:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.92 NKTR Score: -11.07

Effect on Lungs still better than the needle.

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