Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE:NLY)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5

The Company owns and manages a portfolio of mortgage backed securities, including mortgage pass-through certificates, collateralized mortgage obligations and other securities representing interests in or obligations backed by pools of mortgage loans.

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Member Avatar Arcadior (< 20) Submitted: 11/17/2014 8:01:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.50 NLY Score: -1.10

Experienced team, diversification will help stabilize earnings

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Member Avatar Option1307 (30.06) Submitted: 11/6/2014 6:20:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.28 NLY Score: +1.45

mREIT's are dangerous but hot dang that dividend is sweet! Have been an owner for several months now and happy thus far. NLY has done a decent job to hedge against interest rates issues etc.

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Member Avatar pchop12316 (80.71) Submitted: 10/16/2014 1:08:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.23 NLY Score: -8.29

Love the PE/yld combo over the long pull

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Member Avatar aa119634 (37.12) Submitted: 9/24/2014 12:43:14 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.97 NLY Score: +0.81

While interest rates will eventually rise 1.20 per share dividend should be attractive for a long time. And this REIT has a skilful management team that may be able to take advantage of a rising interest rate environment.

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Member Avatar Battinn1000 (< 20) Submitted: 9/11/2014 9:40:15 AM : Outperform Start Price: $11.40 NLY Score: -2.69

Improving mortgage environment with low rates and home affordability

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Member Avatar InveniamViam (< 20) Submitted: 8/21/2014 9:54:13 AM : Outperform Start Price: $11.54 NLY Score: -4.16

Currently undervalued. Management continues to buy large tranches of shares further aligning shareholder interests with management interests. I am getting a value of about $13.10 per the current balance sheet structure. Losses will be mitigated in the coming quarters and share price will being moving higher. Sit back and collect the fat dividend - any increase in price from here will just be an added bonus.

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Member Avatar Turfscape (43.76) Submitted: 7/25/2014 12:10:59 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.00 NLY Score: +0.08

Increased revenue will lead to higher dividend payments, creating stronger demand for the holding in institutional terms.

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Member Avatar afewgoodstocks11 (25.41) Submitted: 7/15/2014 1:34:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.02 NLY Score: +2.76

Div. (Yield) $1.20 (10.7%)

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Member Avatar jtjdp123 (34.39) Submitted: 5/25/2014 7:32:11 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.17 NLY Score: -5.25

Real estate WILL return. It may be a while until we see the next bubble, but its always going to be there. I've done some research on NLY and it's a good play in this market without having to mess around with all the muck present in the construction and the builders.

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Member Avatar afewgoodstocks14 (< 20) Submitted: 4/10/2014 4:24:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.07 NLY Score: -0.56

Div. (Yield) $1.20 (10.5%)

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Member Avatar JackyNi (< 20) Submitted: 2/26/2014 9:46:29 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.30 NLY Score: -0.06

By Michael Aneiro

Shares in bellwether mortgage real-estate investment trust Annaly Capital Management (NLY) are up 3.7% so far this morning, looking to close above the $11 mark for the first time since November, after Annaly reported 4th-quarter core earnings of $0.35 per share, beating Street estimates, and a book value of $12.13, down 4.5% from the previous quarter.

“We are encouraged by the reduced uncertainty in the fixed income markets with the introduction of monetary policy tapering,” said Wellington Denahan, Annaly’s chairman and CEO, in a statement. “Our commercial assets continue to build momentum, with commercial investments now representing 14% of our stockholders’ equity. The lower leverage stance permits us to be opportunistic with capital deployment allowing us to strengthen earnings in future periods.”

Here’s Nomura‘s first take:

Overall, we are impressed by NLY’s performance this quarter. Despite taking a more conservative stance this quarter (relative to peers), lowering leverage and increasing swap positions, NLY delivered positive interest income growth (+1.9% YoY) for the first time since 1Q12. As expected, book value moved lower again this quarter, but by a smaller magnitude relative to peers (-4.5% QoQ compared to -5.3% / -8.5% at AGNC / CYS).

Here’s FBR Capital Markets, reiterating its Market Perform rating:

The primary driver of the beat versus our estimate came on the back of lower premium amortization as the CPR fell to 7%, substantially lower than last quarter’s 13%. This has been the predominant trend with nearly all mREITs this quarter as refinance activity slowed as interest rates moved higher. While this may be considered somewhat “one-time” in nature as the CPR was likely artificially low this quarter, investors have given credit to other names for EPS beats on lower premium amortization, so we would expect this to be the case for Annaly as well…. We had been modestly cautious around the book value print as other agency names with larger fixed rate exposure all had worse than expected book value marks this quarter.

JMP Securities reiterated its Market Perform rating. More from JMP:

The key driver in the sequential earnings improvement was a drop in prepayment speed (CPR) to 7% from 13% in 3Q, which caused premium amortization to decline to just $30.7M from $201.9M in 3Q. We estimate, however, that as much as $50M of this decline or about $0.05 per share could be considered a one-time “catchup” adjustment, which if correct would lower run-rate core EPS to about $0.28, but still above the 4Q consensus estimate.

Credit Suisse today raised its 2014 and 2015 core EPS estimates for NLY to $1.25 (from $1.07) and $1.25 (from $1.12) to reflect Annaly’s better-than-expected net interest spread in fourth quarter, and also established a 2016 estimate of $1.05. ”Given our new earnings estimates we expect that Annaly’s dividend should be stable in the coming quarters,” CS wrote.

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Member Avatar twism21 (< 20) Submitted: 2/19/2014 6:23:55 PM : Underperform Start Price: $10.04 NLY Score: -1.81

As interest rates go higher, company's cost of borrowing will go higher and squeeze net interest margins.

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Member Avatar loangolfer (< 20) Submitted: 2/19/2014 1:04:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.12 NLY Score: +1.31

RESTART

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Member Avatar Chemdawg (27.10) Submitted: 1/31/2014 2:50:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.94 NLY Score: +0.23

this feels like a bad play, which is usually the ones that turn out to be right in the end.

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Member Avatar reggie2015 (< 20) Submitted: 1/12/2014 4:41:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.45 NLY Score: +9.26

NLY has maintained a high dividend throughout its history. The dividend has fluctuated in the past and current interest rates will decrease the margins of NLY. However the company has met resistance at $10 and still pays out more than a 10% dividend meaning little risk to capital and large potential for dividend cash flows.

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Member Avatar stfuallan (20.45) Submitted: 1/10/2014 5:26:16 AM : Outperform Start Price: $9.48 NLY Score: +8.92

Oversold, ready to make bounce back unless dividends drop less than 30% on fourth quarter (early Feb.)

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Member Avatar BaseBawl (< 20) Submitted: 1/2/2014 8:22:51 AM : Outperform Start Price: $9.21 NLY Score: +12.59

Sizemore.

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Member Avatar runninofthebuls5 (30.21) Submitted: 12/30/2013 8:41:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.02 NLY Score: +15.20

yes

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Member Avatar FinanceGuy58 (58.45) Submitted: 12/4/2013 11:33:55 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.87 NLY Score: +14.43

Beat down mREIT stock...will take a while to settle down in a rising rate environment, but speads should eventually improve.

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Member Avatar stockdoc00 (< 20) Submitted: 11/18/2013 9:33:34 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.47 NLY Score: +6.16

If you're patient (at least 2 years) and have a strong stomach for volatility, NLY is at a good entry point at around $10

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