Navios Maritime Holdings, Inc. (NM)

Upthumb. Spot rates stabilizing. Good cash flow. Nominal balance sheet.

Everything that is shipped will probably slow down, but will not stop forever. A solid company at this price, most likely, has only one direction to go...up.

Takes Rio's iron ore to China. Outperform.

I really like this stock and the market has thrown the baby with the bath water. I'll take it.

NM I like at this level

On May 15, 2009 at 8:39 AM, EggplantWizard (99.82) wrote:

I could have waited for the pullback that I expect to see to make it, but I'm not terribly worried about that as a 3 year pick.

I was planning on holding off in my personal account for similar reasons, but I thought that I may as well go ahead and make the pick right away.

As a disclosure, I have a holding in Navios that represents approximately 1.2% of my net worth at this time. (I'd rather not say how many shares, exactly)

Here's the pitch:

Navios sports an attractive quick and current ratio in this highly leveraged industry. Many, many dry-ship companies are likely do go bust over the next 2-3 years due to a combination of leverage and fraud, but this company has convinced me that it has avoided both.

(Watch them pull a Satyam and make me look like a fool, now )

In any case, they have a fleet with relatively staggered age and a proven ability to source inexpensive additional charters from competitors to close deals, and an extremely solid opportunity to pick up business (and ships?) from underfunded competitors as this global slump lasts longer than anticipated and fraudulent or over leveraged competitors go bust.

I do not believe Navios is the best managed company in the drybulk shipping sector, leaving that honor to DSX, however, Navios has a lot more upside "room to run", if you will. DSX already trades at a premium price (comparitively) to earnings, sales and book. I'm pretty confident there will be a pullback from these prices near four -- possibly as low as $2 again, so if you're a "time the market" type, you might want to hold off on this one a little longer... But as a long term pick, I think Navios will significantly outperform the market over the next three years as we see a mix of a *slowwwwww* economic recovery boosting the baltic dry index (shipping rates), and reduced competition in this sphere due to competitor bankruptcies creating additional opportunities for Navios.

I don't see a solid reason for it to be trading at half of its book value, and though I'm waiting for a much lower price ($2s), betting on irrationality of investors to add more to my real life position, I may as well toss a 2-4 year time horizon-pick out there now.

all charters are insured.
very conservative co.

dry bulk shipping companies have better than industry dividends and superior growth in 2008.

Shipping industries will go up. NM, EXM, SBLK and ELGE are few of the shares that trust on.

Earnings estimates (see graph at cnbc.com) Key ratios Price/sales, Price/Book, Price/Cash. Analyst ratings, 5 Stars, Dividend, 5 year graph, New ships and mgmt.

Shipping play with a low PE, buying on the dip to keep my eye on it.

This world wide mess is temporary. A fleet of mdern ships and good management will bring these guys out the other side. Plus, I think some governments just dropped a couple trillion in to the world economy. I think most of it will end up in the stock markets in the next two years. Once the bailout moneyget through the system, it will end up in quality run companies delivering goods and services to a starved consumer driven nation. It looks like they are already preparing to hunker down for the short term.

It's worriesome that they dont seem to be participating much in the better spot rates, but it may be that the duration of contracts etc necessitate making a choice, thus the 'long haul' is the way to play it... sorry about that last one ;)

Great management, insured investments. They will weather the dry bulk storm and the stock value will shoot up with the dry bulk index.

I have experienced over 72% in value in last 4 months. God is Good!

Big dividend play

Play on the credit market turmoil

They'll get higher rates for their ships...new acquisition should pay off

High growth rate = undervalued

Takes ships to move commodities around the world and they are fast growing!

A recovering economy will directly, through recovering exports/imports, raise the value of dry bulk companies.

There is always demand for dry shipping!