NovaStar Financial, Inc. (NASDAQOTH:NOVS.PK)

Trash subprime/ Alt-A stock.

I haven't studied this company that much. In actuality I picked this stock to lose based solely on the fact that the stock was clearly taking a nose dive. Apparently it's still taking a nose dive. I'm not making going to make any out perform picks for any finance company that is involved in sub-prime lending. Even if the company can survive the next few years it's still going to be awhile before they start to perform again and show some actual growth.

Herb Greenberg (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/greenberg/2007/07/novastar-nons-1.html) says, "The nature of this deal, which sounds eerily like a death-spiral financing, suggests just what terrible shape the company is in."

Don't count on getting any dividends.

Novastar, with the same management, was a survivor in the last financial crisis, AND is trusted by some of the biggest boys in the financial sector. The proof is in the ACTIONS, and NOT THE WORDS of these big boys. Wachovia, trusting Novastar with $100,000,000.00, is not in business to lose money. Mass Mutual and Jeffries are not in the business of losing money either, and have committed $150,000,000.00 by buying in with the latest financial backing deal struck by NFI executives. These people are value experts, and it's big business for them. OK, so I own over 10,000 shares of Novastar Financial myself, which I've purchased everywhere between just over $9.40 a share down to $4.48 a share, and I didn't get to where I am on tips. It's called personal research. So many "investors" say "buy low and sell high" but in reality are stuck in the main stream of "panic and sell when the price is down and generate REALIZED losses." Why buy anything unless you know what you're buying. Look at the management, the strategy, the track record, the financial strength, the financial backing, and the current market conditions just to name a few key points of research. Look at the technical data AS WELL AS the fundamental data. Success is the product of going against the grain and doing your own research. Tips (no matter who they are from) are good for one thing, and one thing only... pointing you in the direction of what to do your research on. I have to laugh at many of the so called "professionals" telling people to buy what they are trying to sell and telling people to sell exactly what they want to drive the price down on, so they can get the best deal while you're losing your shirt. The moral of the story is "DO as the big boys DO... NOT as the big boys SAY!" But you still have to make your own decisions and know what you are buying. If you can't do that, investing isn't for you. But if you insist, by the current numbers, NFI is trading at 30some cents on the dollar and is a confirmed survivor. If an acquaintance was to offer you a dollar for every 37 cents you could give them on the spot, you'd be digging out every penny you have, and for good reason!

NFI is at bargain prices because of investor fear of the stock tanking. I give it a 10% chance of going under, 30% chance of succeeding on its own, 30% chance of being bought out, and 30% chance of restructuring and then succeeding.

Novastar may recover but it will take some time. They will continue to have disappointing earnings for the rest of the year and possibly into next year. Look for a possible turn around in mid to late 2008.

I'm long on this one in my real world portfolio...100 shares or so.

Bought around $30 and have received a big chunk of that back in dividends so far.

I should have bought more when it was under $5 recently. It's tripled in the past few weeks!!!...and it's got nowhere to go but up!

Novastar was in the subprime game before there was a subprime game.

They were my lender when I bought my first house at 10.375% at the age of 18.....worst possible deal I could have gotten, but I didn't know any better.

Broker made out like a bandit, but Novastar always treated me like respect the whole 2 years I was a customer...the kind of respect and good customer service that is very hard to find today, in any business not just a lender.

When I wanted to re-fi, they waived my prepay penalty...they didn't have to, since I didn't refi with them and they had me by the short and curlies as the prepay was in the contract for 3 years!

As other Subprime lenders have fallen by the wayside, NFI has continued on strong....sure they have suffered because of the general market conditions, but the fundamental business is very strong!

It closed at $10 today, they settled a class action lawsuit and the mortgage and real estate market has finally found it's bottom.

If the stock jumps even a hair tomorrow, I'm in for 1000 more shares!

next price real resistance is 15$ and change

BOOK VALUE IS 14$!!!

+4.00 dividend PER SHARE before years end!!!!!!

very undervalued!

my friend writes loans in overpriced SanDiego-most people are using subprime right NOW for their loans!-whether it be re-fi arm or first time buyer-no shortage of buyers or loans-83.5% of defaulted homeloans are PRIME LENDER!!! NOT SUBPRIME!

subprime only accounts for 16.5% of defaults-stocks knocked around by hedge funds-naked short selling-but no longer with recent ruling- the bets are going sour by bears and crew-now{subprime healing} having to liquidate to cover their short hedge money-invest now for the ride-easy money if you dont babysit this stock

YOU COULD BE A MILLIONAIRE at years end if you get in NOW!!!

when the housing market takes off look out!

(we own shares of novstar)

Got a tip from 'Downwithpumpers'.

Novastar Financial, Inc has had it's share price driven down past the price that the fundamentals indicate should be the rock bottom price that this company's share price should be trading for...

Has to pay about $4.00 dividend before December 31, 2007.

While its in a bad sector, it is one of the better run companies. Recent backing has reduced risk. Takeover is not out of the question. Look for 200% gain in next 18 months.

No Quick fix expected - financials have been strong for too long

There is certainly a lot of talk about a buyout, and with an estimated value in th $12-$14 range, I think it's going up a bit more.

will sell out at premium

bottom-rated stock on msn

following other bears on caps, its a sub prime lender

too low

A buyout is coming