NPS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:NPSP)

Stocker23 (25.26) Submitted: 3/16/2013 9:18:49 PM : Start Price: $9.10 NPSP Score: +48.89

biotech stocks make me a bit bearish but I think this will be a bull to $13 by the 3rd quarter

mchedester (48.28) Submitted: 3/14/2013 8:10:27 PM : Start Price: $8.87 NPSP Score: +54.02

Time for this to finally find its legs.

aerialist (< 20) Submitted: 2/25/2013 7:47:23 PM : Start Price: $7.55 NPSP Score: +77.83

A major drug for short bowel syndrome. Although there are only about 15,000 patients in the US with this affliction-revenue production will be significant enough to warrant a takeover bid by a major pharma.

Turtlebale (53.63) Submitted: 2/19/2013 10:55:31 AM : Start Price: $7.99 NPSP Score: +69.59

launch will be positive

CellBlock9 (95.54) Submitted: 8/4/2012 8:46:26 AM : Start Price: $7.37 NPSP Score: +74.46

S&P 5 star

PDTBiotech (94.47) Submitted: 7/4/2012 11:35:47 PM : Start Price: $9.00 NPSP Score: +36.83

Attractive target for anyone with a GI sales force.

zzlangerhans (99.76) Submitted: 11/21/2011 11:13:54 PM : Start Price: $5.25 NPSP Score: +132.76

Recent bad news from the STEPS 2 extension study of Gattex in short bowel syndrome got me out of the red zone and into a winning red thumb on NPS. The company reported three cases of cancer occurring in the 37 patients who received Gattex. The company pointed out that two patients developed lung cancer and had a long smoking history, while a patient with a gastrointestinal adenocarcinoma appeared in retrospect to have already had a liver metastasis prior to initiation of Gattex treatment. Clearly, the company is promoting a narrative that these cancers were stochastic events unrelated to treatment with Gattex.

My green thumb indicates that I'm siding with the company on this, at least for now. These were advanced cancers, and in two of the cases the advanced stage at diagnosis is simply not consistent with Gattex being a causative agent. I did find it irritating that NPS chose to add that the local site investigator believed there to be a higher incidence of lung cancer in short bowel syndrome patients, without any substantiation provided for this self-serving observation.

Somewhat more worrisome to me than the cancer reports is the unresolved question of whether Gattex is sufficiently effective and well-tolerated to justify premium pricing for SBS patients. The company is basing their upcoming NDA submission on the STEPS phase III study, in which 27/43 patients receiving Gattex achieved a 20% reduction in weekly volume of parenteral nutrition vs 13/43 receiving placebo. That was statistically significant and met the primary endpoint, but I'm seeing a small study and an endpoint of questionable real-world significance. I'm not sure how much a 20% reduction in TPN improves quality of life. Furthermore, an earlier phase III study of Gattex in 2007 had mixed results.

Since the cancer reports, NPS stock has traded in a narrow range and didn't get much of a lift this month when the company reported positive results of the REPLACE phase III trial of NPSP588 in hypoparathyroidism. Once again, an ultra-orphan indication, a small study, and a questionable endpoint (reduction in calcium supplement requirement). Anyone who believes that Gattex and NPSP588 provide a straight and clear road to profitability is deluding himself.

NPS has relatively complex finances for a baby biotech. They have a large cash reserve of 190M but a heavy long-term debt burden of 247M. The company earns over 20M per quarter in royalties, mostly from Amgen's Sensipar for secondary hyperparathyroidism. The company recently increased their cash position and retired some of their debt with a large advance on their royalties from Amgen. Trying to decipher the finances gives me a headache, so I just keep an eye on them while I focus on upcoming catalysts.

The cancer reports won't affect the upcoming Gattex NDA submission or a likely FDA acceptance of the application. An NDA submission for NPSP588 may also come in the near future. With two novel compounds under FDA review and a history of getting other profitable drugs approved, I believe NPS stock is likely to recover significantly leading up to the first PDUFA. Hopefully, this green thumb will be closed before the actual PDUFA.

stpatrick31782 (< 20) Submitted: 10/31/2011 6:19:03 PM : Start Price: $5.17 NPSP Score: +139.73

Stock tanked after deaths in Polish study, but Gattex appeared to be successful and deaths appear to have been bad luck.

reachmygoals1 (< 20) Submitted: 1/29/2011 4:20:30 PM : Start Price: $9.38 NPSP Score: +21.97

going to 15, phase 3 trial success

cashsage (29.92) Submitted: 12/17/2009 12:56:54 PM : Start Price: $3.08 NPSP Score: -312.94

NPSP has an illiquid balance sheet and a too high valuation compared to its sales potential. It is also loss making at least until 2011.

synergize (32.07) Submitted: 6/9/2008 11:38:03 AM : Start Price: $4.35 NPSP Score: -204.65

NPS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NPS) is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the development of specialty therapeutics to treat gastrointestinal (GI) and endocrine disorders with unmet medical need.

As of April 15, 2008, the Company was advancing two late-stage programs GATTEX (teduglutide) is in Phase III clinical development for intestinal failure associated with short bowel syndrome and NPSP558, parathyroid hormone 1-84 (recombinant deoxyribonucleic acid (rDNA) origin) injection, is in Phase II clinical development as a hormone therapy for hypoparathyroidism. NPS has also completed a Phase III osteoporosis study for PREOS (parathyroid hormone 1-84 (rDNA origin) injection). NPS complements its internal programs with partnerships with Amgen, GlaxoSmithKline, Kirin and Nycomed.

muksdotca (< 20) Submitted: 3/20/2008 10:50:21 PM : Start Price: $4.00 NPSP Score: +227.65

When everyone was watching BSC and the sky falling NSPS reported positive top-line results from a 28-week blinded Phase 3-extension study of GATTEX(TM) to deaf ears.
NPS Reports Successful GATTEX(TM) Extension Study
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080317/lam077.html?.v=101

chuckmunger (< 20) Submitted: 4/14/2007 12:28:10 AM : Start Price: $4.09 NPSP Score: +228.63

NPSP is a biotech co. that manufactures several bioengineered small molecule protein drugs,some approved,some in various stages of clinical trials. Most of these bioengineered molecules deal with the regulation of calcium levels in the blood. Since proper calcium blood levels are necessary for the proper conduction of electrical signals, this field has large application potential.Bone density, osteoarthritis and mental function are dependent upon proper blood calciun levels also, so NDA's are plentiful. Of more immediate concern, however, the company manufactures a drug for AMGN caled Sensipar(in the U.S.) that has seen sales growing for AMGN in excess of 100% per annum since introduction (3 yrs ago). AMGN is beholden to NPSP for sizable royalty pmts for several yrs. AMGN revealed recently that sales of their top 3 "Blockbuster" drugs are starting to plateau, and they must quickly develop new ones to replace them hence the 50% increase in last year's R&D expense, Sensipar may fit the bill; particularly if NDA's can be developed for the drug.
2 weeks ago NPSP announced results and also disclosed they would "cut their workforce by 90%+"; could this be a flashig red light that they are preparing the company for ACQUISITION? Stay tuned..........Charles

Infratious (< 20) Submitted: 3/5/2007 1:29:07 PM : Start Price: $3.45 NPSP Score: -286.52

Something is going to happen soon. NPS has delayed their quarterly earnings announcement by one month, probably because they are going to announce something just before then: either more layoffs (a facility closing?), or a sale of the company, or a partnership that will give it some market security/stability or infusion of cash. What that announcement will do to the price of the stock is unknown at this time, depending on what that next move is going to be. Wise or foolish? Time will tell in the next two weeks.

jnmkbrownell (91.15) Submitted: 11/25/2006 7:19:42 AM : Start Price: $5.36 NPSP Score: +140.36

The stock has made a good technical base between 4.60 and 4.80 over the last 6 monthgs. It is now in the process of breaking out on the upside on increasing volume.