Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company focused on creating differentiated, value-added vaccines that improve upon current preventive options for a range of infectious diseases.

NVAX News and Commentary

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All Players

303 Outperform
83 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

39 Outperform
14 Underperform
 

Wall Street

6 Outperform
2 Underperform
 

Top NVAX Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

SaintCroix (98.93)
Submitted November 24, 2017

The company has two billion-dollar drugs in the pipeline.The first is a vaccine to combat RSV, the most common cause of bronchitis and pneumonia in babies. This is a multi-billion dollar drug. We are all waiting on phase 3 results.What made it a… More

rhinomaj (93.61)
Submitted August 04, 2009

The investment premise for this and a number of the speculative H1N1 stock plays are based on two faulty premises. 1] That there will be a substantial shortage of vaccine from the already contracted Pharma including GSK, Sanofi, Medi. 2] that these… More

NVAX VS S&P 500 (SPY)

Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about NVAX.

Recs

1
Member Avatar SaintCroix (98.93) Submitted: 11/24/2017 1:18:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.39 NVAX Score: -18.17

The company has two billion-dollar drugs in the pipeline.

The first is a vaccine to combat RSV, the most common cause of bronchitis and pneumonia in babies. This is a multi-billion dollar drug. We are all waiting on phase 3 results.

What made it a buying opportunity is the stock getting hammered because of bad news in the phase 2 trials of the RSV drug. Same drug, but a different set of patients: old people.

The company's explanation for the bad news is that control group numbers for the disease was less than what the company was expecting. The efficacy was off because people in the control group didn't get sick, either.

Whether or not you buy that explanation--and I do--it's important to realize that young babies and very old people are two different classes of patients when it comes to RSV. That's why they're running two different trials, after all. So the idea that bad news in the phase 2 trial with old people means bad news for the phase 3 trial in babies isn't at all true.

Anyway, this stock has been a battle over the future of the RSV drug.

But what's making the stock take off now is drug #2.

Out of nowhere the company has had fantastic success with its NanoFlu drug. It's producing superior hemagglutinin antigen inhibition antibody responses (in ferrets) compared to Sanofi's flu vaccines. The numbers have been so impressive the company is rushing the drug into clinical trials. It is now in phase 1/phase 2. They could be filing for approval in 2019.

It's excitement over the flu vaccine--another multi-billion dollar market--that is making the stock jump right now.

Recs

0
Member Avatar InvestYoung (62.62) Submitted: 9/1/2017 10:17:34 AM : Outperform Start Price: $1.07 NVAX Score: +21.46

It all comes down to whether the RSV vaccine can be released.

George Budwell writes, "Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common respiratory ailment that can, on occasion, pose a serious threat to both infants and elderly adults. Unfortunately, biopharma companies have so far been unable to produce an effective prophylactic treatment for RSV for either young children or older adults. And that's why the clinical-stage vaccine-maker Novavax may turn out to be a once-in-a-lifetime type of investing opportunity.

Novavax is presently attempting to development an F-protein nanoparticle RSV vaccine that can be administered in conjunction with seasonal flu shots in elderly patients, as well as a vaccine for pregnant mothers that can confer immunity to newborns during the first few months of their lives.

Like most experimental RSV treatments to date, though, things haven't exactly gone to according to plan. Last year, Novavax's late-stage trial for elderly adults went off the rails due to a mild RSV season -- at least according to the company. And the vaccine's midstage maternal data weren't overwhelmingly significant. Put simply, Novavax's high-value RSV vaccine -- that could be worth billions if approved -- appears to be a long shot at best at this stage.

On the flip side, if Novavax can indeed pull a proverbial rabbit out of its hat and push this vaccine across the finish line, the company's stock would undoubtedly appreciate in Amazon-like fashion from current levels. Novavax, after all, presently sports a market cap of $307 million, which is only a tiny sliver of the massive commercial opportunity presented by this unmet medical need.

So will Novavax soar? I'm gonna gamble that the answer is yes.

Recs

0
Member Avatar TMFFlygal (99.03) Submitted: 10/31/2016 9:29:14 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.51 NVAX Score: -33.77

Insider buying after failed phase 3 trial, trial is being rerun. Worth a gamble

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in NVAX.

Score Leader

tempttempt

tempttempt (73.00) Score: +668.41

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in NVAX.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
marksaal 66.67 4/28/2009 Underperform 1Y $3.11 -55.63% +216.91% +272.54 1 Comment
AGCAPS < 20 4/28/2009 8/11/2011 Underperform 5Y $3.11 -55.63% +216.91% +272.54 0 Comment
OverHeld 24.89 4/27/2009 Underperform 5Y $2.80 -50.71% +214.46% +265.17 0 Comment
shortguru 97.52 4/29/2009 Underperform 5Y $2.93 -52.90% +211.24% +264.14 0 Comment
storystockshort 98.04 4/29/2009 Underperform 5Y $2.93 -52.90% +211.24% +264.14 0 Comment
2iQPureAlpha 91.17 4/29/2009 Underperform 5Y $2.93 -52.90% +211.24% +264.14 0 Comment
DerSquirrel 73.74 4/29/2009 6/3/2011 Underperform 5Y $2.93 -52.90% +211.24% +264.14 0 Comment
examinebeyond 29.18 4/29/2009 Underperform 3W $2.93 -52.90% +211.24% +264.14 0 Comment
manetheren86 < 20 4/29/2009 Underperform 3M $2.95 -53.22% +205.24% +258.46 0 Comment
blue08 28.09 4/30/2009 Underperform 3W $2.89 -52.25% +204.00% +256.25 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackJimCramer 85.08 8/30/2016 Outperform 3W $6.96 -80.17% +22.25% -102.42 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.08 6/3/2016 Underperform 3W $6.12 +13.73% +3.67% -10.05 8/30/2016 @ $6.96 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.08 8/12/2015 Outperform 3W $13.65 -55.16% +0.69% -55.86 6/3/2016 @ $6.12 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.08 3/12/2015 Underperform 3W $9.29 +46.93% +0.84% -46.10 8/12/2015 @ $13.65 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.08 1/15/2015 Outperform 3W $6.20 +49.84% +4.06% +45.78 3/12/2015 @ $9.29 0 Comment
TrackUltraLong < 20 4/29/2013 Underperform NS $2.45 -43.67% +67.96% +111.64 1 Comment
TrackPoisedTo < 20 7/13/2012 Underperform 5Y $2.03 -32.02% +99.10% +131.12 0 Comment
TrackWedbush 87.10 3/15/2011 Outperform NS $2.64 -47.73% +110.53% -158.26 0 Comment
TrackDawsonJames < 20 6/16/2010 Outperform NS $2.29 -39.74% +139.19% -178.93 0 Comment
TrackRothCapital 70.03 3/15/2010 Outperform NS $2.45 -1.43% +17.47% -18.90 5/3/2011 @ $2.42 0 Comment
trackglobalhunte < 20 12/3/2009 Outperform NS $3.55 -61.13% +138.92% -200.04 0 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 85.03 12/2/2009 Outperform NS $3.14 -56.05% +140.27% -196.32 0 Comment
trackmerriman 72.88 11/5/2009 Outperform NS $3.92 -64.80% +152.23% -217.03 0 Comment
TrackOppenheimer 58.02 10/31/2007 Outperform NS $3.80 +61.84% -35.04% +96.89 9/2/2009 @ $6.15 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.08 3/1/2006 Underperform 3W $5.69 +8.96% +53.49% +44.53 1/15/2015 @ $6.20 0 Comment

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