Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company focused on creating differentiated, value-added vaccines that improve upon current preventive options for a range of infectious diseases.

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 11/23/2014 10:40:01 AM : Underperform Start Price: $5.10 NVAX Score: -17.37

I don't mind admitting that I don't really understand Novavax. All I know is that I've been following this company off and on for more than seven years and I've never even heard them discuss running a phase III trial. It just seems to be a neverending series of phase I and II trials of vaccines for different viral illnesses that keep changing depending on whatever happens to be in the news. In 2007 it was Avian flu (remember that one?), in 2009 it was swine flu (remember that one?), in 2013 it was MERS and a new Avian flu, and this year it's Ebola. All the chest-beating and lack of progress was all well and good when the market cap was in the 200M's up until the summer of 2013, but since then both the share price and the share count have gone on a tear and today's market cap is over 1.2B. Over a billion dollars, for Novavax? What is the biopharma world coming to?

Besides their "virus of the month" efforts, Novavax has been consistently conducting trials of vaccines for seasonal influenza and RSV. This month Novavax initiated a 420 patient dose-ranging phase II trial of a quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine. What's wrong with that? Well, in 2012 Novavax claimed positive results of a dose-ranging phase II trial of a quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine. And in 2010 Novavax claimed positive results of a dose-ranging phase II trial of a trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine. Will Novavax ever move past phase II trials of seasonal influenza vaccines?

Novavax seems to be making a little more progress with their RSV vaccine, albeit slowly. I'm guessing that this is where the bulk of Novavax's current valuation is coming from, but I think the commercial potential of such a vaccine is unclear. Novavax still has to demonstrate sufficient maternal-fetal transfer of RSV antibody and demonstrate that the antibody is protective via large phase III trials that track both the immune responses of maternal recipients and RSV infection rates in the infant subjects. Given Novavax's typical sluggish progression of their pipeline, I can only imagine what decade those trials might be completed in.

The fact that plans for development of an Ebola vaccine were met with further increases in share price is more evidence that Novavax's ascent is speculation-driven. In a year, Ebola will just be another forgotten epidemic and Novavax's vaccine development efforts will be quietly wound down. It could be another 50 years before we see other epidemic like this and the world cares about Ebola again. Don't get me wrong - I don't believe that the lives of people in third world countries are worth less than ours, but the sad fact remains that vaccines and therapeutics for diseases like Ebola and malaria aren't worth the cost of development for most pharmaceutical companies. Regardless, many companies are well ahead of Novavax in development of an Ebola vaccine should significant outbreaks continue.

Perhaps I have Novavax all wrong and they're about to be acquired by Sanofi or Novartis for 2B. It could happen - I'm wrong almost 18% of the time. In the meantime, I'll play the odds and bet on a little hot air seeping out of this balloon in the future.

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Member Avatar liebezeit2 (60.05) Submitted: 6/9/2014 5:17:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.38 NVAX Score: +30.57

Immediate need for new vaccines worldwide.

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Member Avatar otherAquanaut (99.81) Submitted: 3/17/2014 1:43:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.32 NVAX Score: +305.30

It's started trending down. Keep an eye on it.

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Member Avatar TerryFool (55.34) Submitted: 3/15/2014 9:57:07 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.99 NVAX Score: +39.36

BP $5 TP $11 REV 3YR 250% 5YR 1140%

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Member Avatar biznessdoc (61.11) Submitted: 1/22/2014 2:01:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.98 NVAX Score: -11.95

The company to OWN in emerging vaccines.

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Member Avatar bluesteel22 (< 20) Submitted: 12/17/2013 4:49:23 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.48 NVAX Score: +17.83

Its been a beast in the past few months and I'm going with the crowd of analysts on this. Do I know about phase 2 and 3 trails and what's going on in China? Nope. But mom said if all your friends jumped off a building would you? Yep. If we all land in a big pile of cash.

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Member Avatar zincfinger (< 20) Submitted: 11/16/2013 5:37:26 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.15 NVAX Score: +75.07

NVAX can go from viral sequence to first doses of vaccine within 12 weeks, 50 million doses within four months, and hundreds of millions of doses within six months. Non egg production (no supply problem, no problem handling avian influenzas) NOT a live vaccine
NVAX's VLP technology highly effective in all clincial trials so far. Influenza vaccines high cross reactivity with other influenzas.
RSV vaccine($billion+ annual market) >4 years ahead of all others. No competition in that market

Cash for two years burn rate

Potential for multi stockpile orders for H7N9 vaccine (and a MERS vaccine in the works)

"Outperform" too weak but no higher option!

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Member Avatar rknapton (< 20) Submitted: 8/22/2013 4:35:38 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.90 NVAX Score: -81.86

Short. Biopharma losing lots of money and issuing more and more stock.

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Member Avatar Bioguy65 (87.48) Submitted: 6/22/2013 4:44:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.90 NVAX Score: +189.48

I like this long term but also at times for trading. With the MERS coronavirus scare and fact that NVAX has already produced their MERS vaccine candidate, this should be a very good two weeks to own this stock.

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Member Avatar Igasu (< 20) Submitted: 12/28/2012 6:02:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.81 NVAX Score: +181.96

NVAX has new homogenate to make its patented Viral Like Particles that uses insect homogenate v eggs. (Currently takes about a billion eggs/yr to make our flu vaccine) Factories are much cheaper to build. The hysteresis from virus to vaccine is half the time of conventional vaccines. They have an RSV vaccine that appears to be very immunogenic. (The only one out there right now)

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Member Avatar ftsmd (< 20) Submitted: 7/8/2012 8:13:08 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.97 NVAX Score: +150.50

It is now on the rise. Flu season is just around the corner and its vaccines for the prevention of RSV and pneumonia have been showing promising results in their trials.

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Member Avatar RBuskey106 (50.71) Submitted: 3/21/2012 8:28:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.33 NVAX Score: +300.49

Bio stock

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Member Avatar TXKL (< 20) Submitted: 3/16/2012 2:46:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.37 NVAX Score: +288.67

No genius info here. If they can get something approved by the FDA they will skyrocket.

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Member Avatar mgm4 (< 20) Submitted: 8/30/2011 2:55:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.91 NVAX Score: +143.02

Flu season...media...paranoia

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Member Avatar cecamadocv1 (99.97) Submitted: 8/30/2011 1:36:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.94 NVAX Score: +137.19

Im just following the crowd on this one. Insider buying, sitting on money. Things are looking good... So why not?

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Member Avatar Lawrence56 (< 20) Submitted: 3/18/2011 1:46:03 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.56 NVAX Score: +72.21

2yr gov contract with possible extension of 2 additional

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Member Avatar TrafficDesign (23.84) Submitted: 12/16/2010 8:57:50 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.87 NVAX Score: +22.66

Finally......

Novavax, Inc. NVAX announced today that the company's Phase I clinical trial to evaluate a new vaccine candidate to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection has been cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and is no longer on clinical hold. Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO of Novavax says, "This is a significant accomplishment and represents the second major internally discovered vaccine program based on our core platform technologies. RSV is the leading cause of viral death in infants and a common illness in elderly adults. A safe and effective vaccine is especially needed in these populations since RSV infection does not provoke lasting immunity." In the United States alone, hospitalizations due to RSV results in annual medicals costs exceeding $1 billion.

Orignally I was RED thumb on this company, but they have had some great growth in the research field and seem to have goals set in place with clear direction. FDA clearance on anything these days is like gold, and I doubt they will screw it up. Because of this I stick with my GREEN thumb prediction and wish the company the best of luck. If they come out with new and better vaccines each year, I think we will have a real winner on our hands.

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Member Avatar Ellas77 (< 20) Submitted: 11/26/2010 1:08:03 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.24 NVAX Score: +92.24

Extremely low price x low market capitalization + winter = increased share price

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Member Avatar ah6br (< 20) Submitted: 5/10/2010 4:58:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.67 NVAX Score: +44.12

New vaccine technology.

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Member Avatar sujoypaul (< 20) Submitted: 5/4/2010 3:07:14 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.69 NVAX Score: +46.20

BARDA contract, Mexico approval. Final stage of US FDA Phase III

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