Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX)

Technical Monthly

Flu season...media...paranoia

Im just following the crowd on this one. Insider buying, sitting on money. Things are looking good... So why not?

Perfect short candidate!

2yr gov contract with possible extension of 2 additional

Finally......

Novavax, Inc. NVAX announced today that the company's Phase I clinical trial to evaluate a new vaccine candidate to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection has been cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and is no longer on clinical hold. Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO of Novavax says, "This is a significant accomplishment and represents the second major internally discovered vaccine program based on our core platform technologies. RSV is the leading cause of viral death in infants and a common illness in elderly adults. A safe and effective vaccine is especially needed in these populations since RSV infection does not provoke lasting immunity." In the United States alone, hospitalizations due to RSV results in annual medicals costs exceeding $1 billion.

Orignally I was RED thumb on this company, but they have had some great growth in the research field and seem to have goals set in place with clear direction. FDA clearance on anything these days is like gold, and I doubt they will screw it up. Because of this I stick with my GREEN thumb prediction and wish the company the best of luck. If they come out with new and better vaccines each year, I think we will have a real winner on our hands.

Extremely low price x low market capitalization + winter = increased share price

New vaccine technology.

BARDA contract, Mexico approval. Final stage of US FDA Phase III

can't believe this is still going up. Re-entering thumbs down. Swine flu... are you kidding me?

Not a stock I would normally pick. That being said, I think the analyst were to quick to downgrade this morning due to their ability to get the vaccines out quickly. I know I am going out on a limb here but I think it will very soon see new highs for the year.

H1N1

because UltraLong thinks so

Like this one 2

Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX) announced today it has manufactured a virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine candidate against the H1N1 pandemic influenza virus under current good-manufacturing practices (cGMP) at its new vaccine manufacturing facility in Rockville, MD. This milestone was accomplished in only 11 weeks after receiving the gene sequence for the H1N1 strain from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. The Company was able to reach this manufacturing goal by employing proprietary, novel production technology which is not dependent on growing influenza virus in eggs. Chicken eggs are used to produce almost all of the world's influenza vaccine supply. In addition, Novavax has produced essential reagents for measuring vaccine potency. The Company also has plans to produce additional batches of the pandemic H1N1 VLP vaccine to support human clinical studies and stands ready to assist with additional public health needs in the US as well as foreign countries.

The investment premise for this and a number of the speculative H1N1 stock plays are based on two faulty premises. 1] That there will be a substantial shortage of vaccine from the already contracted Pharma including GSK, Sanofi, Medi. 2] that these vaccines will be purchased on EUA without the need for additional clinical trials. IMO there will be sufficient vaccine come november and even in the absense of sufficient quantities, there is no evidene that the FDA will permit the use of unaapproved vaccines. IF you look at the recent VRPAC presentations from the FDA you will see that they are quite clear the path to approval is through the amended use of an existing seasonal BLA. THere is no chance that NVAX or any of the other speculaticve calls such as VICL, HEB, INO etc. will have approval by the time a vaccine will be needed. THese will be under real preasure come October when the approved vaccines ship.

Their technology will prove pivotal in the H1N1 immunization.

The fear of a significant pandemic seem, for the first time in a very long time, justified. Pandemic H1N1 seems to be a significant possibility.
This small company just obtained 2 partnerships (in Spain and India) with credible companies. The Spanish gouvernment favors Novavax tech. They seem to have beaten Crucell (sad for me...).
Their technology is impressive yet simple. Nasal administration is likely as one of the ways this vaccine could be administered.
They have a few other vaccines in the pipeline that have a 'real shot' of eventually being approved.
This is a long term play on good and scalable technology. Also a short term play on a pandemic. To me the 'hype' so far doesn't seem to be excessive (if a pandemic is really coming!) although small companies like Novavax and Sinovac have done very well with it. Vaccines are the most cost effective way of improving health. The manifacturing of influenza vaccines will eventually be replaced (ie: Novartis) and companies like Crucell and Novavax will benefit greatly.

A swine flue play.... think swine flue is played out. The company has nothing in the way of sales and isn't profitable now. Even if it gets a swine flu bump, it's short term. Selling at 400x sales according to published ratios.