Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biopharmaceutical company focused on creating differentiated, value-added vaccines that improve upon current preventive options for a range of infectious diseases.

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.79) Submitted: 2/29/2016 5:27:22 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.36 NVAX Score: -0.45

Between September 2014 and August 2015, Novavax's share price rose from 4 to 13. The market cap rose even more relative to the price thanks to large dilutive financings. Was this a rise in value or valuation? Novavax certainly deserves credit for delivering on their pipeline, with encouraging results of phase II trials of their RSV vaccine in both pregnant women and in elderly subjects. But was the company really worth over three billion based on a single vaccine about to enter phase III and ongoing perennial efforts to develop a multivalent seasonal influenza vaccine?

Right now the market is saying no. 2016 has exposed dozens of recent biopharma superstars as naked emperors. Many of these companies such as Chimerix, Tetraphase, and Zafgen have disappointed in late stage development with lack of efficacy or disqualifying side effects. Others, like Novavax, have simply fizzled as institutional longs walked away. Close to 4 again, I think Novavax is worth another look. Topline data from the Resolve phase III trial of RSV vaccine in elderly subjects is expected in Q3 2016. In December, the company initiated enrollment in the Prepare phase III trial of RSV vaccine for pregnant women (intended to provide protection for their infants), although this trial could take years to complete. Earlier this month Novavax raised 325M in convertible debt which has a conversion price of 6.81 and is not redeemable until maturity in 2023. The price action suggests the street hated this deal but I'm not sure why. Would dilution have been preferable? In my experience it's unusual for a developmental company to be able to raise this much unsecured debt with a nice buffer below the conversion price. Debt purchasers have to be more careful than buyers of public offerings, especially when the conversion price means they won't be able to unload the debt easily. Someone likely believes in this stock for the long term.

Naturally, a word of caution. Novavax is still valued over a billion dollars but in the current market there is no short term floor for any biopharma stock. Just because Novavax was valued over 3B a few months ago and nothing has particularly gone wrong since then doesn't mean it's a screaming buy at 1B. Everything has to be interpreted based on existing market conditions, and it's hard to go long anything without being prepared to accept short term pain. On the other hand, it's hard to imagine some of these beaten down bios won't turn out to pay a sweet reward once the current risk off phase has taken its course.

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Member Avatar clangmead (42.06) Submitted: 2/11/2016 9:41:44 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.47 NVAX Score: -9.57

mpor1

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Member Avatar Rpcutter (< 20) Submitted: 1/26/2016 3:25:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.51 NVAX Score: -24.56

NVAX is a stock I have followed consistently for the past 12 months. Their RSV vaccine is a a potential blockbuster, and it looks like they are ramping up production for approval with a recent 300 million dollar debt offering, even though they had plenty of cash on hand to cover their burn rate for the foreseeable future.

With a great balance sheet, an exciting and diverse balance sheet and what seems to be strong insider confidence, I think NVAX is a screaming buy if an investor can tolerate risk.

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Member Avatar roymarshall (23.06) Submitted: 11/9/2015 2:41:19 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.88 NVAX Score: -40.49

still funny...the people that get out of this because of financials are really just ignorant of what they have

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Member Avatar CMFgdf (32.37) Submitted: 9/8/2015 9:32:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.65 NVAX Score: -59.71

beaten mercilessly (and unfairly) in the recent correction.

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Member Avatar mmurray (< 20) Submitted: 4/18/2015 1:43:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.12 NVAX Score: -41.49

nvax is performing well

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Member Avatar FlyinBlind (23.63) Submitted: 3/28/2015 9:34:34 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.58 NVAX Score: -45.49

This company's unique technology for development of vaccines will prove to be a winner.

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Member Avatar ice23bear (34.76) Submitted: 2/20/2015 8:04:34 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.63 NVAX Score: -49.44

NVAX is working on vaccines that will be needed in future outbreaks of serious illnesses. They are likely to have at least one major success and that should be all they need to soar.

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Member Avatar StanErck (< 20) Submitted: 12/20/2014 7:18:17 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.95 NVAX Score: -22.06

A lot in the pipeline

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Member Avatar liebezeit2 (45.20) Submitted: 6/9/2014 5:17:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.38 NVAX Score: -0.31

Immediate need for new vaccines worldwide.

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Member Avatar otherAquanaut (99.70) Submitted: 3/17/2014 1:43:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.32 NVAX Score: +200.75

It's started trending down. Keep an eye on it.

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Member Avatar biznessdoc (54.55) Submitted: 1/22/2014 2:01:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.98 NVAX Score: -34.21

The company to OWN in emerging vaccines.

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Member Avatar zincfinger (< 20) Submitted: 11/16/2013 5:37:26 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.15 NVAX Score: +31.79

NVAX can go from viral sequence to first doses of vaccine within 12 weeks, 50 million doses within four months, and hundreds of millions of doses within six months. Non egg production (no supply problem, no problem handling avian influenzas) NOT a live vaccine
NVAX's VLP technology highly effective in all clincial trials so far. Influenza vaccines high cross reactivity with other influenzas.
RSV vaccine($billion+ annual market) >4 years ahead of all others. No competition in that market

Cash for two years burn rate

Potential for multi stockpile orders for H7N9 vaccine (and a MERS vaccine in the works)

"Outperform" too weak but no higher option!

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Member Avatar rknapton (69.12) Submitted: 8/22/2013 4:35:38 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.90 NVAX Score: -34.86

Short. Biopharma losing lots of money and issuing more and more stock.

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Member Avatar Bioguy65 (74.00) Submitted: 6/22/2013 4:44:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.90 NVAX Score: +117.07

I like this long term but also at times for trading. With the MERS coronavirus scare and fact that NVAX has already produced their MERS vaccine candidate, this should be a very good two weeks to own this stock.

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Member Avatar Igasu (< 20) Submitted: 12/28/2012 6:02:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.81 NVAX Score: +106.13

NVAX has new homogenate to make its patented Viral Like Particles that uses insect homogenate v eggs. (Currently takes about a billion eggs/yr to make our flu vaccine) Factories are much cheaper to build. The hysteresis from virus to vaccine is half the time of conventional vaccines. They have an RSV vaccine that appears to be very immunogenic. (The only one out there right now)

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Member Avatar ftsmd (< 20) Submitted: 7/8/2012 8:13:08 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.97 NVAX Score: +81.00

It is now on the rise. Flu season is just around the corner and its vaccines for the prevention of RSV and pneumonia have been showing promising results in their trials.

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Member Avatar RBuskey106 (41.81) Submitted: 3/21/2012 8:28:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.33 NVAX Score: +196.75

Bio stock

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Member Avatar TXKL (< 20) Submitted: 3/16/2012 2:46:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.37 NVAX Score: +187.99

No genius info here. If they can get something approved by the FDA they will skyrocket.

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Member Avatar mgm4 (< 20) Submitted: 8/30/2011 2:55:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.91 NVAX Score: +71.46

Flu season...media...paranoia

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