InVivo Therapeutics Holdings Corp. (NASDAQOTCBB:NVIV)

InVivo is one of those funny Schrodinger's cat biotech stocks. There's a black box and no one knows what's inside except the guys at the top of the company. One day the box will get opened and the share price will go to pennies or to the moon, but there's no clear date on which that will happen. In the meantime, expect lots of impassioned debate that often veers over the edge of rationality.

On one side, we have InVivo's management, some African green monkeys, and a dedicated cadre of Seeking Alpha pumpers that includes a lot of the Usual Suspects. On the other side, we have a new Seeking Alpha basher and ... history. History tells us that heavily promoted stocks of companies claiming to have revolutionized a previously intractable area of medicine tend to eventually implode.

I won't get into the SA debate since both sides seem eminently unreliable. Management certainly has an impressive pedigree, but I've seen impressive founders like Al Mann cause a lot of pain to their shareholders before. I traced the lifetime price chart and I can't figure out the timing of the big drop and the big pop in 2011. The latest drop clearly seems to be caused by the recent SA article but that guy has absolutely no credibility, so I'm surprised the bulls are folding so easily. I think ultimately InVivo will fail grandly but there's definitely potential here for a return to the mid 2's or higher after initiation of a clinical trial in humans in early 2013.